Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 779. Nov 23, 2005 1:20 PM

» jamesj24 - Re: Another Strong Up Day

In response to Another Strong Up Day posted by jamesj24:

As I suspected, at least for today, the S&P 500 was rebuffed at the 1270 level. It will be interesting to see if this resistance level holds until 12/16/05, the December expiration. WMT appears to be poised to rally into expiration.

Yesterday I wrote some put spreads to capture the expiring time value of Wal-Mart. Today I wrote some short puts and spreads on Cameco, which is a blue chip uranium producer.

But, enough of giving useless information after the fact. If you wanted that, you could just listen to Bob Brinker, and most of you know that I'm not joking when I say that.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 780. Nov 23, 2005 6:15 PM

» allancoleman - Re: allancoleman ytd performance

In response to Re: Re: allancoleman ytd performance posted by gabbai:

hi gabbi ,

no question is too ' nosy ' for me . my stable value fund in within my company 401(k) and is not available to the public . however there are many stable value mutual funds now available and if you ' goggle ' " stable value funds " , you'll get lots of hits to explore . one of the benefits of using my company 401(k) for my market timing is i have ' daily awitching ' allowed with no restrictions or penalities . something not allowed with the normal mutual funds anymore . so i am allowed to switch daily if i want from fund to fund to fund . usually i only make a couple of changes a year , but it is nice to know if i make a switch and want / need to make another switch a day later or a week later or a month later that i can .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 781. Nov 25, 2005 12:19 PM

» gabbai - Re: Re: allancoleman stable value fund

In response to Re: allancoleman ytd performance posted by allancoleman:

What is the current rate of return on your 401K stable value fund?

What are it's holdings?

-- posted by gabbai

Top 782. Nov 25, 2005 2:28 PM

» allancoleman - Re: allancoleman stable value fund

In response to Re: Re: allancoleman stable value fund posted by gabbai:

hello gabbai ,

the return of my stable value fund in my company's 401(k) is :

last four weeks = 0.39%

ytd = 4.25%

last 12 months = 4.72%

one year = 4.70%

three year = 4.8%

five year = 5.9%

as of the present time , they are , according to Morningstar , 100% invested in ' Synthetic GIC ' . they have " negotiated contracts ( ' Wrap Contracts ' ) with five insurance companies :

AEGON

Pacific Life

Allstate

ING Group

Principal Life

' GIC ' is the old term for " guaranteed investment contracts " . only they don't like to call them that anymore because several of them went bankrupt in the past . sad .

i strongly suggest if you aren't familar with or have done business with ' Stable Value ' funds that you proceed cautiously because the the ' stable ' part of the income is only as good as the insurance company that guarantees that income and my fund specificly states , " in the event of failure by any insurer to satisfy it's contract terms , neither ( company name ) , any fund managers , nor the trustee is required to fulfill the insolvent issuing company obligations on the contract " .

once again , please go back to ' google ' and do more research on these and , at one time, we had a really excellent " stable value " forum here and SteveT did alot of research and posting there .

-- posted by allancoleman

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

Top 783. Nov 26, 2005 10:22 AM

» jamesj24 - Expiring Time Value

If interested, you're invited to read my latest posting on options trades in

My post there is missing a Subject Line. The text had disappeared after I had returned to edit it the third (I think)time . Luckily, I had copied the post to my clipboard but forgot to re-write the subject line. It should have read: "Expiring Time Value."

Maybe Kirk knows: "Why does the note disappear after 3 (?) edits?"

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 784. Nov 26, 2005 10:35 AM

» jamesj24 - Stable Value Fund

I use Dwight Asset Management in my deferred comp accounts (with CALPERS.) Its yield is about the same as that, which Alan describes for his GIC. I've had Dwight since mid-2000, when I sold my 401-K S&P 500 holdings. I would have faced a huge tax bill if I had cashed out my non-deferred taxable holdings when I wanted to in 2000. That prevented me from selling my taxable accounts in mid-year 2000.

The Dwight Asset Management stable value fund has served me very well through the treacherous bear market. I wish all my accounts had been tax deferred.

I have searched in the past, but was unable to find a GIC that I felt comfortable with outside of my deferred comp accounts. I have seen a forum on that topic. I think GICs cater to the deferred income market. They must carry large back end loads or penalties outside of deferred accounts, in order to maintain the stable value of the fund.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 785. Nov 26, 2005 4:18 PM

» gabbai - Re: Re: allancoleman stable value fund

In response to Re: allancoleman stable value fund posted by allancoleman:

I really wasn't that familiar with the term "stable value" fund until we started this discussion. However, I have in my 401K (the federal employee thrift plan) the equivalent of this type of fund. It's called the G fund. It is invested in treasury securities with mid-term maturity. Last month return: .36. Last 12 MOS: 4.34%.

There is no risk of loss of principal and there is daily switching available between this fund and the other choices: SP 500 index, Wishire 4500 index, etc.

When Bob gives the sell signal I'll switch from the equity index funds back into the G-fund. I had everything in the G-fund in March of 2003 when
Bob gave his major buy signal. I put a nice amount in to the SP fund at the time and I have added additional amounts on the dips.

Like you, I don't want to blow my profits now.

-- posted by gabbai

Top 786. Nov 26, 2005 7:49 PM

» allancoleman - Re: allancoleman stable value fund

In response to Re: Re: allancoleman stable value fund posted by gabbai:

hi gabbai ,

if you have any kind , ' stable value ' or not , of a fixed income fund that allows you ' daily ' switching , then i'd call it good for market timing , if you're of a mind .

my feelings about waiting for bob brinker to issue a ' sell ' signal , is that he may miss the timing because he's so bullish . bob brinker's method doesn't allow for corrections of less than 10% . in the past , when bob has gotten callers concerned about these ' less than 10% pullbacks ' , his typical answer is those people shouldn't be in the stock market . and he's right . if you can't take the heat or the risk , you should stay out of the kitchen and the stock market .

the reason i don't like riding the dips down hoping for a rally is one of these day's , there isn't going to be a rally to new highs and it'll just be the another step down in a secular bear market to lower lows . as you've said , " i don't want to blow my profits now " .

weither bob brinker makes a call / sell signal or not , i'm out of this market by december 29th or BEFORE . i'll wait and see how the market acts after january 1st next year and see how it reacts to the next fed interest rate increases before i make up my mind how to handle next year's strategy . i've got all year to figure next year out . i'm just going to make sure i don't give back anything i've made this year .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 787. Nov 27, 2005 12:03 PM

» 750a - Brinker's sell call

I think Brinker is going to pull the plug on the cyclical bull rally very shortly. The MACD on the S&P is showing signs of decreasing momentum and looks nearly identical to the way it did in late 1999. Mark me down as saying Brinker pulls the plug by the end of January.

-- posted by 750a