Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 769. Nov 22, 2005 2:02 PM

» allancoleman - Re: allancoleman ytd performance

In response to Re: allancoleman ytd performance posted by gabbai:

hi gabbi ,

i was approximately 80% stock asset allocation from january 1st until march 4th earlier this year . i then pulled mostly out of the market to a 10% stock asset allocation all sumer until i bought back into the stock market this october 21st .

i pretty much keep my 10% stock market asset allocation evenly divided between the Fidelity Magellan fund and the Gateway fund . the rest of my assets i shift from a Stable value / income fund to a us stock fund in my 401(k). this us stock fund acts almost exactly like the schwab 1000 .

my intendion is to sell the Magellan & Gateway fund later when i buy GNMA's as those accounts are in Roths . my plan later is to have all my Roth money in GNMA's and continue to use my 401(k) as my market timing vehicle .

since my ' buy in ' at S & P 1180 , i have doubled my performance ytd .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 770. Nov 22, 2005 2:12 PM

» allancoleman - Re: What Will Brinker Say This Weekend?

In response to Re: Re: What Will Brinker Say This Weekend? posted by jamesj24:

hi james ,

it wasn't so much the ' Midas ' touch as it was the fact i had suffered a $75k loss the first six weeks of the year and when the gods decided to issue me not only a $75k break even profit , but also a further gain of $25k by march 4th , i figured it was enough lessons on how to turn a ' large ' fortune into a ' small ' one . smile .

i usually post my major market moves here on suite101 . and i expect to shift back out of the stock market by december 29th or BEFORE . something about bulls & bears make money and pigs get slaughtered and GREED . plus i see more and more of Taleb's black swans in the lake lately .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 771. Nov 22, 2005 2:29 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Bob's show today

In response to Re: Re: Bob's show today posted by SteveT:

yes Steve , i share bob brinker's , and others , view that we are in a secular bear market .

i hope your widely diversified asset allocation strategy will save your critical mass when our market suffers the same secular bear market the japanese entered in 1990 and are just now 15 years later recovering from . buy and hold does not work in secular bear markets over the long term . and we are just barely five years into this one and should expect to see another ten years of similar markets in the future where the indices are back to four / five year highs . which means if you had bought and held the larger indices , you stll wouldn't be back to break even yet .

my strategy of market timing has consistently produced positive market gains each and every year since 2000 . and i'm on track to have my best year ever since i retired in 2000 . and this is counting my living expenses each and every year since that date . and when this ' second leg ' down of this secular bear market begins in the future , i expect to be mostly in fixed income at 5% to 7% as i was in 2000 .

that's what i think Steve . and just like the cowboy that brung the cowgirl to the dance , i'm going to keep my strategy cause it makes me money and i'll take the cowgirl and my money to the bank after the dance . smile .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 772. Nov 22, 2005 3:24 PM

» bob90245 - Re: Re: Bob's show today

In response to Re: Bob's show today posted by allancoleman:

i'm on track to have my best year ever since i retired in 2000

This really does beg the question, Allan. So I'll ask it if you don't mind. <img src=http://www.suite101.com/images/emoteicon...> Why the heck are you in the market at all? Given that you believe we're in a secular bear market and you have critical mass, it doesn't make any sense to risk it.

i hope your widely diversified asset allocation strategy will save your critical mass when our market suffers the same secular bear market the japanese entered in 1990 and are just now 15 years later recovering from .

Umm... pardon me for pointing out the flaw here. But a portfolio of Japanese stocks doesn't constitute a widely diversified asset allocation strategy. Try one of these 'lazy portfolios' HERE

-- posted by bob90245

Top 773. Nov 22, 2005 3:39 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Bob's show today

In response to Re: Re: Bob's show today posted by bob90245:

hello bob ,

there are times in a cyclical bull market in a secular bear market when even a ' blind ' hog can find an acorn . and my friends that know my total portfolio numbers also wonder why i'm even in the stock market at all too . greed i guess . smile .

your point on the Japanese market is well taken , but i wonder if the regular ' buy & hold ' Japanese investor the last 15 years would agree with you . ? ? wonder when that investor is going to break even on his 1990 Japanese portfolio total numbers . ? ?

just questions . smile .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 774. Nov 22, 2005 6:46 PM

» allancoleman - Re: allancoleman meltdown prediction

In response to Re: allancoleman meltdown prediction posted by Kirk:

excellent post Captain Kirk comparing the Japanese market to our own .

and congradulations on your performance . my year to date return in my invested portfolio is 9.774% and my year to date return in my total portfolio is only 8.607% . course i consider that lessor return to be more accurate as it also includes my living expenses and values my personal real estate at conservative tax assessed valuations .

for example : one of my hawaiian parcels is assessed at $27,600 and selling in the neighborhood for $90k . and my lots in homer , alaska are assessed for $11k and selling for $45k to $65k .

thanks for providing us with a place to information share and learn . i'm certainly taking advantage of it . if i could , i'd stand ya all up to dinner . think i can afford it about now . smile .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 775. Nov 23, 2005 4:31 AM

» gabbai - Re: Re: allancoleman ytd performance

In response to Re: allancoleman ytd performance posted by allancoleman:

If it's not to nosy to ask, which stable value/income fund do you use?

-- posted by gabbai

Top 776. Nov 23, 2005 9:49 AM

» jamesj24 - Another Strong Up Day

The S&P 500 is now only about 2.5 points away from 1270, which I calculate to be the maximum expected level based upon variances from trend over the past two years. I read that much of the rally was due to short covering of bears running scared. It is particularly risky to be short in this kind of market. I'm putting on bullish positions, avoiding short positions at the moment. When it turns back down in a few days, I will probably regret not following my own carefully worked out calculations. One thing is for sure: the market is as emotional as people, and subject to as wide mood swings.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 777. Nov 23, 2005 11:20 AM

» bamala - lost track of purchases

OK - I don't know where to post this question or how to find the answer so I thought I'd post it here to see if anyone here knows the answer.

A long-long time ago when I was but a young lad, I bought some stock. I didn't keep track of when I bought it or the purchase price. In one case it was ESPP, in another case the stock reverse split and the company was sold etc. Since then this stock has traveled with me where ever I go like a flea-bitten kitten. I've transfered this stock several times to several different brokerages and the track record is not recoverable.

Sure I'd like to know if I'm going to make a profit when I sell it -- but more importantly, how to handle the tax implications? Can I contact the issuing company and see if they maintain a list of investors? Do companies keep records of who bought what when? Or what recommendations do you have for researching stock ownership? Thanks for any advice in advance!

-- posted by bamala