Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 591. Oct 12, 2005 3:38 PM

» bbaddict - Back to where I was...

Here I am again, staring at the buy signal, wondering what to do. I had stopped subscribing during the S&P 800 call, so I missed that. I kept waiting for a dip or correction to get back in at 800. Never happened.

I was subscribing when the 1060 call was made (for months). The market seemed weak, so I sat on the sidelines, watching it climb past 1200.

Same for the 1160, and 1180.

Well, here I am at 1180 again, but the market appears weak. As mentioned above (oil prices, rates rising, the Fed's inflation talks, etc), would make me think we are heading to 1000 again.

What to do...what to do...

I would love to see his timing model, to look at each indicator. Can't be as strong as it was at the time of the last 1160 or 1180 calls.

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 592. Oct 12, 2005 3:59 PM

» bob90245 - Gee . . .

In response to The Nervous Nellies

. . . there seems to be some nervous chatter here. I'm still waiting for the Halloween indictor (the one that says to "buy" in November) to signal the next 6 month favorable season. I have 10% "explore" in cash. At some point very soon, I'll put half of that (5%) in the market. Why only half? I'm chicken. <img src=http://www.suite101.com/images/emoteicon...>

-- posted by bob90245

Top 593. Oct 12, 2005 4:39 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Gee . . .

In response to Gee . . . posted by bob90245:

you and me both bob . only i'm thinking changing my asset allocation from less than 10% to 80% .

and i'm chicken too .... like you . smile . wouldn't it be something if i could buy in at 1140 to 1160 . then i'd be maybe a richer & lucky chicken by year's end .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 594. Oct 12, 2005 6:47 PM

» permabear - Re: Re: Gee . . .

In response to Re: Gee . . . posted by allancoleman:

Even if you believe in Brinker's models, it still comes down to a question of risk. We may very well be near a trading bottom and rally into year end and into the beginning of 06. You can then wait for Brinker's next call taking us back into the secular bear trend. But, you have to wonder how much is left in this cyclical bull. I think even devoted Brinker supporters would accept the premise that the cyclical bull is aging and that most of the gains have already been made. Even Brinker himself says this. He says the easy money was made in 03 and 04 and its much tougher now. So the question is how devoted are you to his timing models?

-- posted by permabear

Top 595. Oct 12, 2005 7:08 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Gee . . .

In response to Re: Re: Gee . . . posted by permabear:

hello permabear ,

i don't necessarily agree with bob brinker's model but i do accept your analysis that it's a matter of ' risk ' . i only use bob as one of my indicators for market timing although i do agree that this cyclical bull market is getting ' long in the tooth ' and most of the easy gains have been made .

how devoted am i to bob's timing model ? not very , but i also realize that bob is excellent in calling major market moves and i'll be sensitive to that . it's just that it would be nice to make a play on this last rally of this calendar year before watching 2006 unfold .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 596. Oct 12, 2005 7:10 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Gee . . .

In response to Gee . . . posted by bob90245:

You and me both (on that half idea, anyways)!

I will also be looking to get out first thing in January, if 1Q '06 promises to be a repeat of this year. (First week predicts the month, etc.)

But the main reason I think we still have one more rally yet (and perhaps no real 4Q rally) is that everyone is expecting that 4Q rally this year. A final "false" rally will suck in those bulls and scare out the shaky bears of "summer."

Don't get caught by a last, "false" rally; the final drop this year is likely to be a gut wrencher, one way or the other.

Stay loose. Good luck.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 597. Oct 12, 2005 7:36 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Gee . . .

In response to Re: Gee . . . posted by Normxxx:

hello Normxxx ,

i'm looking to sell out on december 28th myself IF i decide to jump in on this rally . hoping to use bob brinker's buy signal ( we're already there now ) and sy harding's MACD's to pick a place to buy into this goofy market and a possible year end rally . i'd prefer to see 1140 to 1160 before i jump .

keep your ear next to the track ( without getting run over by the train smile ) and let us know what you think and when you decide to jump yourself .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 598. Oct 12, 2005 7:55 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Gee . . .

In response to Re: Gee . . . posted by allancoleman:

Will do. I know that (historically) there is, if anything, a negative correlation between the market and the economy (makes sense, if you figure that money can't be in two places at once). Still, the fundamentals have never looked this awful for as far back as I can easily remember (the '70s?). But even forgetting the fundamentals, the summer of '03 taught me not to easily bet against the Presidential cycle, which predicts doom until next November.

______________

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 599. Oct 13, 2005 3:53 AM

» rasputin - Re: a little in

In response to a little in posted by bamala:

OK, so maybe I put more than a few shekels in yesterday. But I'm still only at 34% equities. Yesterday I moved about 23% of assets into VTSMX. So, that's the rest of the story. I might move to 50% equities on future weakness.

-- posted by rasputin