Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 581. Oct 10, 2005 9:51 PM

» jamesj24 - Re: Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Survey Graph

In response to Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Survey Graph posted by Kirk:Saturday I sent my newsletter subscribers my latest update of my graph of the Investor Intelligence Bull/Bear survey vs. the DJIA going back to June 1998. It is now showing another “down spike” in sentiment that often marks a major, tradable bottom.

Kirk, I sure hope you're right and that the market had bottomed out and will turn up soon.

One of the orders I had "to average down to catch the recent lows" executed today for Toll Brothers, which hit a new correction low. My goal price was 38.50, and today it hit 38.05, adding to my losses on that one. Usually things turn around after October. I am using November options for the "averaging down" trades. For that reason, I'm not worried, at least not yet.

Interesting point about the growth of Fed Ex, especially considering it is a company heavily dependent upon fuel (gas and diesel products, I presume.)

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 582. Oct 11, 2005 4:14 AM

» BoltonCT - Bob Brinker... in cloud nine, in love with himself.

As the market approaches its bottom, cash flow should be entering again. That has not happened and the DJI, NYSE, S&P, NASDAQ, and Qs continue to weaken. That means we are not near the bottom.

Very soon the S&P should break through 1180 and head towards 1150. Unless cash starts back in the S&P has already lost enough to drop to 1100 for a total decline of 12%.

The Nikkei continues its rapid assent, as apparently Americans no longer believe as Bob Brinker does. Americans ignore Bob's advice and are buying Gold and are investing in Japan.

Bob Brinker was sloppy in late 2000 with his bull rally call and was in the ozone in 1987 and apparently missed that one completely. He still thinks it is realistic to quote inflation without the components of housing, energy, materials, and large manufactured items. He still sees no danger with long term rates holding as short-term rates climb. He has little to say about the trade deficit, and is only beginning to see the danger in our growing fiscal deficit. In other words Bob Brinker has once again entered the ozone layer and is pretty much oblivious to everything happening in the American economy.

This economic time is very much like when President Ford said the economy was fine when the nation knew it was in decline and President Ford lost his chance at re-election. Similarly the senior President Bush lost his credibility ignoring his recession.

Unfortunately most indicators are averages and can be manipulated. A few weeks ago I discovered what looked like intervention one late Friday afternoon when my cash flow indices took off like rockets because a small cash influx late in the closing minutes of the day had distorted the day's average. That is how all market timing that depends on averages can be distorted. I suspect that Bob Brinker's indicators are also distorted by foolish rules like using an obviously useless core index for inflation and by his ignoring the problem with long term rates and instead putting all his bond holder listeners in immanent danger.

-- posted by BoltonCT

Top 583. Oct 11, 2005 5:53 AM

» bamala - Re: Re: buy now?

In response to Re: buy now? posted by allancoleman:

I hear ya.
But if you believe 1300 is where its going then why not get in during a typically, psychologically down period like Sep-Oct?

So here's a question for the economists out there: If interest rates keep rising because we can't attract enough capital to pay our rising deficits ...and there is no sign of the decficit decreasing -- and we still have Greenspan's replacement and avian flu coming...and rates keep rising but our currect account starts to approach unsustainability then what? Remind me... is that stagflation? Is that the motivation for those in gold?

-- posted by bamala

Top 584. Oct 11, 2005 10:07 AM

» jamesj24 - TreasuryDirect Now Offers Marketable Treasury Securities

Did you see this yet? The Treasury Direct web site now allows purchase of marketable securities online. I'm just now trying it out, but it seems to be very convenient. The web site also allows an option for automatic rollover to the next issue. The 6-month T-bill last yielded 4%, free of state taxes.

There is an auction scheduled for the 6-month bill today (10/11) and on 10/17.

-- posted by jamesj24

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/

Top 585. Oct 11, 2005 10:08 AM

» jamesj24 - TreasuryDirect Now Offers Marketable Treasury Securities

Here's the link to the announcement:

Here's the link to Treasury Direct:

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/tdhome.htm

-- posted by jamesj24

http://safehaven.com/article-3916.htm

Top 586. Oct 11, 2005 2:59 PM

» permabear - Re: Re: Re: buy now?

In response to Re: Re: buy now? posted by bamala:

Remind me... is that stagflation?

Here's an article that takes such a position:

-- posted by permabear

Top 587. Oct 12, 2005 10:27 AM

» BoltonCT - Bob contemplating his sell signal

Easy going Bob B is no doubt contemplating his sell signal right now. At best I give him until March 2006 if we have a bounce soon.

But I still see no evidence of a bounce yet. To me it reminds me of skiing to the crest of the mountain with the summit getting steeper and then suddenly the mountain drops out from beneath our feet and the mist blocks the bottom out from our view.

I see the decline is still in the process of accelerating and if we hit about -4% one of these mornings it will likely fall 25% by close.

But cool handed Bob B will have to blame someone and it sure won’t be himself. However, the more we undermine the administration the more likely the world will also try to pull the plug on us and make matters worse. This is a time when we had better stick together and keep our mouths shut so the world doesn't find out what fools we really have been.

-- posted by BoltonCT

Top 588. Oct 12, 2005 11:25 AM

» permabear - Re: Bob contemplating his sell signal

In response to Bob contemplating his sell signal posted by BoltonCT:

The assumption is that the final two months will be strong which they traditionally have been. But there are a lot of headwinds right now which may throw conventional wisdom out the window. Obviously energy is taking a bite. The Fed is hiking interest rates. Inflation is becoming more pronounced. Long term bonds have started declining. I think this latter point is what is driving the market down right now. We've got a ten year at 4.45. Low interest rates have been the key to the housing market which has been the key to the economy. If longterm rates rise, the housing market will get hurt, as will everything else.

-- posted by permabear

Top 589. Oct 12, 2005 11:57 AM

» rasputin - Just for the record

I put a few shekels back in the market today.

-- posted by rasputin