Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+
- allancoleman
- permabear
- rasputin
- jamesj24
- JackSwanson
- jamesj24
- bamala
- allancoleman
- jamesj24
- BoltonCT
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» allancoleman - Re: Too late for energy?
In response to Too late for energy? posted by jamesj24:hello jamesj24 ,
if all of your critical mass will be in cash and/or I-bonds , then you probably can ignore Bob Brinker or most any other market analysist in the future . however , if any of your critical mass is exposed to the stock market , you might be wise to listen to all those who are willing to stick their necks out on predicting the market's future direction . because if/when the second leg down in this secular bear market starts , you might lose your critical mass if you aren't careful . Bob's record of making major market calls in the past has been pretty good overall .
as for energy stock advise , i don't do individual stocks anymore , but there certainly are those here who can assist you .
listening to Bob right now as i type this and , for the record , no new secrets yet . 
.
-- posted by allancoleman
» permabear - Bad News Bears
Brinker opened his show last week by gloating over how wrong the "bad news bears" have been about the stock market. He rolled through all of the reasons that the bears (like myself) have been saying should have taken the market down, but didn't: the war, the deficit, Katrina, rising interest rates, energy prices, etc. etc. etc. Once again Brinker's timing model is winning the day. I tip my hat to him. He is the best market timer I've seen. One investment he's been dead wrong about though is gold. He described it as "noise" despite the fact that it's almost doubled in the past five years, probably a better return than his most aggressive Markettimer porfolio. Nonetheless, on the stock market, until Brinker is wrong, I give him all the credit for the big calls. Keeping my assets in gold, treasuries and foreign bonds, I do keep waiting for the day that he misses (besides the QQQ call that is). All it takes is one big miss, and all that money his followers have been making could go down the bear market drain.-- posted by permabear
» jamesj24 - Re: Re: S&P 500: Bob's Buy the Dips or DCA
In response to Re: S&P 500: Bob's Buy the Dips or DCA posted by Kirk.One or two of his buy the dips I think hit and several did not. Is anyone keeping track?
:
Shortly after the beginning of the post-election rally last year, Bob rubbed his listeners' noses in it, those who had not followed his advice to buy on the dips of SP500 less than 1200, proclaiming that there had been something like 17 buying opportunities below his buy level, and that there was no excuse for complaining about having "missed" it. I was one of those who continued to not follow his advice, much to my own chagrin.
For that reason, I have to admit, I share permabear's enjoyment when the market sells off as it did recently, confirming my feeling, that this economy and market is so plagued with serious fundamental problems that there is no reason to rush to buy equities.
As for my trading, I'm hoping for a repeat of the recent lows. I have placed good until canceled orders to average down if we reach the previous correction lows for my open long stock positions. Only for that reason, I hope you're wrong, Kirk that the market has probably bottomed. I didn't want to place the orders until some rebound had occurred, wishing to avoid catching the "falling knives."
-- posted by jamesj24
» JackSwanson - Stinker misses the gold rush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jack's been in gold big time, and we just hit an 18 yr high, while stinker's been trashin' gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!DOWN WITH STINKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-- posted by JackSwanson
» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Re: S&P 500: Bob's Buy the Dips or DCA
In response to Re: Re: S&P 500: Bob's Buy the Dips or DCA posted by Kirk:Kirk, your use of the graph to show the likelihood that the market has bottomed out assumes that the bull trend is still in place, and that the trend will continue upwards from here. There are two factors that are worth mentioning about this assumption.
First, the correction can easily continue, hovering around the trend support line for some time.
Second, if the trend line is violated and does not hold, then the bull trend quickly can turn into a bearish trend.
It sounds as if you're agreeing with BB's basic premise that the cyclical bull is still intact, something that only time will tell.
I suppose I might be in the permabear camp, although I do trade, taking bullish positions, relying on the assumption that the trend continues bullish. Sometimes it is hard to endure with that assumption. For that reason, I keep only a small percentage in long positions (<30% of my portfolio. Most of this is in long term holdings. I now have about 10% in speculative short term long positions. These now have significant losses.
-- posted by jamesj24
» bamala - buy now?
Kirk - I just don't get it. Just because the charts are similar, the underlying economic conditions are incredibly different. I think it would be more useful to chart you favorite economic indicators and find a pattern that matches today's situation. I suspect that would be more relevant... but what do I know?AnywayBrinkerr is talking SP500 at 1300 by next year. If you are believer then why wait for a buy signal at 1180? I guess you have to draw the line somewhere. 1180 gives you 9.23% gain while 1190 gives you 8.46%.Brinkerer says invest when the SP500 hits 1180 is he saying invest in the widest SP500 fund he's got or just pick you favorites?
A general question for the masses: I'm looking for a fpluginugin or ? that will give me YTD mutual fund info -- specifically risk, return, and fees. Any tips?
-- posted by bamala
» allancoleman - Re: buy now?
In response to buy now? posted by bamala:why not wait for an uptick . ? ? buying at 1180 and watching it go further down to 1160 or 1140 doesn't add to your gains . i thought the point was to NOT try to catch falling knives . . but what do i know . ? ?
-- posted by allancoleman
» jamesj24 - Re: Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Survey Graph
In response to Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Survey Graph posted by Kirk:Saturday I sent my newsletter subscribers my latest update of my graph of the Investor Intelligence Bull/Bear survey vs. the DJIA going back to June 1998. It is now showing another “down spike” in sentiment that often marks a major, tradable bottom.Kirk, I sure hope you're right and that the market had bottomed out and will turn up soon.
One of the orders I had "to average down to catch the recent lows" executed today for Toll Brothers, which hit a new correction low. My goal price was 38.50, and today it hit 38.05, adding to my losses on that one. Usually things turn around after October. I am using November options for the "averaging down" trades. For that reason, I'm not worried, at least not yet.
Interesting point about the growth of Fed Ex, especially considering it is a company heavily dependent upon fuel (gas and diesel products, I presume.)
-- posted by jamesj24
» BoltonCT - Bob Brinker... in cloud nine, in love with himself.
As the market approaches its bottom, cash flow should be entering again. That has not happened and the DJI, NYSE, S&P, NASDAQ, and Qs continue to weaken. That means we are not near the bottom.Very soon the S&P should break through 1180 and head towards 1150. Unless cash starts back in the S&P has already lost enough to drop to 1100 for a total decline of 12%.
The Nikkei continues its rapid assent, as apparently Americans no longer believe as Bob Brinker does. Americans ignore Bob's advice and are buying Gold and are investing in Japan.
Bob Brinker was sloppy in late 2000 with his bull rally call and was in the ozone in 1987 and apparently missed that one completely. He still thinks it is realistic to quote inflation without the components of housing, energy, materials, and large manufactured items. He still sees no danger with long term rates holding as short-term rates climb. He has little to say about the trade deficit, and is only beginning to see the danger in our growing fiscal deficit. In other words Bob Brinker has once again entered the ozone layer and is pretty much oblivious to everything happening in the American economy.
This economic time is very much like when President Ford said the economy was fine when the nation knew it was in decline and President Ford lost his chance at re-election. Similarly the senior President Bush lost his credibility ignoring his recession.
Unfortunately most indicators are averages and can be manipulated. A few weeks ago I discovered what looked like intervention one late Friday afternoon when my cash flow indices took off like rockets because a small cash influx late in the closing minutes of the day had distorted the day's average. That is how all market timing that depends on averages can be distorted. I suspect that Bob Brinker's indicators are also distorted by foolish rules like using an obviously useless core index for inflation and by his ignoring the problem with long term rates and instead putting all his bond holder listeners in immanent danger.
-- posted by BoltonCT
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