Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 571. Oct 1, 2005 5:43 PM

» JeffChristy - Re: Re: Bob Brinker's YTD Numbers?

In response to Re: Bob Brinker's YTD Numbers? posted by allancoleman:

Allen

You are correct that Brinker no longer shows his YTD results on his website. I believe he did back in the 90's. I saved his balance as of 31 Dec 05 and it was $209,885 for portfolio 1. His current balance as of 30 Aug 05 is $213,673. That would give him a YTD number of +1.8%. He was up 13.5% for the year 2004. He beat me by 1% last year but I am significantly ahead of his this year because I am overweighed in energy stocks. As of Fridays close I am up 18% YTD. I have posted a list of the energy stocks that I am currently holding here at 101. Some people including my broker have suggested I lighten up. I gave this considerable thought last week and decided not to. On Thursday I attended a meeting of the society of financial analysts. Someone ask the guest speaker what inning he thought we were in when it comes to energy. He said he thought we were in the third inning of what could be a ten inning game. He is a person who has a great record in the industry and Brinker has bashed him more than once on his show.

-- posted by JeffChristy

Top 572. Oct 2, 2005 12:16 PM

» jamesj24 - Too late for energy?

I'm tempted to just buy a small quantity of oil stocks, regardless the price. They seem to be the only sure winners in the current economic environment. The biggest risk seems to be an economic slowdown, which would severely dampen the demand for oil. However, with growing demand outstripping a dwindling supply, I doubt that even a recession would significantly hurt oil stocks. I'd like owning the stocks because then I would be less bothered by the constant increase in gasoline prices. I might actually feel a little good about it. I have this situation now with my ownership in Costco stock. When I go there, the crowds of people and long lines don't bother me in the least because I own shares of COST.

There might be a way to play options on energy (or any potentially overvalued stock.) For example, buy stock, and put a collar on (sell out of the money calls and buy OTM puts). A collar can pay for itself, for example, buy one hundred shares, sell a call, buy a put for even money. This limits both the upside gain and downside risk.

Thanks for all your comments and summaries on Bob's shows. I get more out of reading this forum than listening to Bob, and save a lot of time and trouble in the process. Though I missed his show yesterday I didn't "miss" it in the least... One day, I hope to be free of the addiction. I'll have critical mass, all in cash and/or I-bonds, and get my excitement, speculating on stocks using options on an insignificantly small percentage of the total.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 573. Oct 2, 2005 1:44 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Too late for energy?

In response to Too late for energy? posted by jamesj24:

hello jamesj24 ,

if all of your critical mass will be in cash and/or I-bonds , then you probably can ignore Bob Brinker or most any other market analysist in the future . however , if any of your critical mass is exposed to the stock market , you might be wise to listen to all those who are willing to stick their necks out on predicting the market's future direction . because if/when the second leg down in this secular bear market starts , you might lose your critical mass if you aren't careful . Bob's record of making major market calls in the past has been pretty good overall .

as for energy stock advise , i don't do individual stocks anymore , but there certainly are those here who can assist you .

listening to Bob right now as i type this and , for the record , no new secrets yet . smile .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 574. Oct 4, 2005 10:22 PM

» permabear - Bad News Bears

Brinker opened his show last week by gloating over how wrong the "bad news bears" have been about the stock market. He rolled through all of the reasons that the bears (like myself) have been saying should have taken the market down, but didn't: the war, the deficit, Katrina, rising interest rates, energy prices, etc. etc. etc. Once again Brinker's timing model is winning the day. I tip my hat to him. He is the best market timer I've seen. One investment he's been dead wrong about though is gold. He described it as "noise" despite the fact that it's almost doubled in the past five years, probably a better return than his most aggressive Markettimer porfolio. Nonetheless, on the stock market, until Brinker is wrong, I give him all the credit for the big calls. Keeping my assets in gold, treasuries and foreign bonds, I do keep waiting for the day that he misses (besides the QQQ call that is). All it takes is one big miss, and all that money his followers have been making could go down the bear market drain.

-- posted by permabear

Top 575. Oct 6, 2005 12:46 PM

» rasputin - S&P 500

Dangerously close to Bob's buy signal of 1180.

-- posted by rasputin

Top 576. Oct 7, 2005 1:46 PM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: S&P 500: Bob's Buy the Dips or DCA

In response to Re: S&P 500: Bob's Buy the Dips or DCA posted by Kirk.

One or two of his buy the dips I think hit and several did not. Is anyone keeping track?
:

Shortly after the beginning of the post-election rally last year, Bob rubbed his listeners' noses in it, those who had not followed his advice to buy on the dips of SP500 less than 1200, proclaiming that there had been something like 17 buying opportunities below his buy level, and that there was no excuse for complaining about having "missed" it. I was one of those who continued to not follow his advice, much to my own chagrin.

For that reason, I have to admit, I share permabear's enjoyment when the market sells off as it did recently, confirming my feeling, that this economy and market is so plagued with serious fundamental problems that there is no reason to rush to buy equities.

As for my trading, I'm hoping for a repeat of the recent lows. I have placed good until canceled orders to average down if we reach the previous correction lows for my open long stock positions. Only for that reason, I hope you're wrong, Kirk that the market has probably bottomed. I didn't want to place the orders until some rebound had occurred, wishing to avoid catching the "falling knives."

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 577. Oct 7, 2005 9:47 PM

» JackSwanson - Stinker misses the gold rush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jack's been in gold big time, and we just hit an 18 yr high, while stinker's been trashin' gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DOWN WITH STINKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-- posted by JackSwanson

Top 578. Oct 8, 2005 11:08 AM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Re: S&P 500: Bob's Buy the Dips or DCA

In response to Re: Re: S&P 500: Bob's Buy the Dips or DCA posted by Kirk:

Kirk, your use of the graph to show the likelihood that the market has bottomed out assumes that the bull trend is still in place, and that the trend will continue upwards from here. There are two factors that are worth mentioning about this assumption.

First, the correction can easily continue, hovering around the trend support line for some time.

Second, if the trend line is violated and does not hold, then the bull trend quickly can turn into a bearish trend.

It sounds as if you're agreeing with BB's basic premise that the cyclical bull is still intact, something that only time will tell.

I suppose I might be in the permabear camp, although I do trade, taking bullish positions, relying on the assumption that the trend continues bullish. Sometimes it is hard to endure with that assumption. For that reason, I keep only a small percentage in long positions (<30% of my portfolio. Most of this is in long term holdings. I now have about 10% in speculative short term long positions. These now have significant losses.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 579. Oct 10, 2005 7:19 PM

» bamala - buy now?

Kirk - I just don't get it. Just because the charts are similar, the underlying economic conditions are incredibly different. I think it would be more useful to chart you favorite economic indicators and find a pattern that matches today's situation. I suspect that would be more relevant... but what do I know?
AnywayBrinkerr is talking SP500 at 1300 by next year. If you are believer then why wait for a buy signal at 1180? I guess you have to draw the line somewhere. 1180 gives you 9.23% gain while 1190 gives you 8.46%.Brinkerer says invest when the SP500 hits 1180 is he saying invest in the widest SP500 fund he's got or just pick you favorites?

A general question for the masses: I'm looking for a fpluginugin or ? that will give me YTD mutual fund info -- specifically risk, return, and fees. Any tips?

-- posted by bamala