Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 564. Sep 25, 2005 10:18 AM

» jamesj24 - Any news on the oil situation?

I must be getting over my addiction to Bob Brinker. I listened to a few minutes of his show yesterday, found it boring, and didn't get back to it. I heard Bob's numerous plugs for the energy analyst guest he was going to have on. He seems to do the guest interview during the last hour of the show.

Did anyone hear anything interesting from him? I believe he was the same expert Bob interviewed a few months ago. What I recall that was most interesting is that during the previous interview with an energy expert, and I think he was the same man as last time, he predicted that in about 5 years the demand will have substantially outstripped supply. In so many words, he said the supply would run out for all practical purposes. Bob seemed to have let that prediction pass right by him, and did not respond to it at all.

I was curious if yesterday's guest said the same thing. If this is the case, and a scientist or expert is saying so, it seems to be a serious cause for concern.

With all due respect, I don't believe in the highly touted new hydrogen economy, nor in the tapping of oil shale. If these things were economically viable, they would already have been in wide use. They are not.

Fortunately for Texas, the hurricane turned out to only be a rain storm, though a very big one. Unfortunately for New Orleans, Rita caused renewed flooding.

I can't help but wonder if these events won't so severely strain our economy that they push us into recession, or worse, stagflation. Our economy depends too heavily on foreign investment. At some point, that may dry up if these problems shake foreign investors' faith. That, combined with our addiction-like dependence on oil, we are in a horribly vulnerable position. I see disturbing similarities to the U.S.'s current situation to that of CA's prior to the energy crisis. CA is heavily dependent on electricity (and natural gas) purchases from other states, and within the state, it depends on a handful of producers.

One potentially positive fallout of harder economic times might be that Congress will be less likely to blithely approve the funds to go to war/rebuild, etc., as it did with Iraq. Of course, worse than the money is the human toll that war brings. That free spending (and fee killing) approach is the result of our economy, artificially propped up by deficit spending and heavy borrowing in all sectors, private and public. (Unless I overemphasize politics, please don't censure my free speech and don't tell me to take my political opinions to some other forum! I find that very irritating, and it rings of self-righteousness, political correctness, and Maoism. I seriously doubt that you have achieved perfection.)

The analogy of our current situation that I like is to the one of a peron's adding up his assets, perhaps he discovers he's a millionaire, and is very happy at the results. Then he realizes he will owe a huge tax bill at the end of the year. He realizes he's not nearly as wealthy as he thought he was, because he will have to make a heavy tax payment very soon. That is the current economic state of the U.S. and will become apparent when the free flow of cheap oil and money dries up. (Yes, oil is still cheap, and more importantly, it is still readily available.) Hopefully, this won't happen, but I doubt that Goldiloks will always find the conditions to be "just right".

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 565. Sep 25, 2005 10:40 AM

» bob90245 - Re: Any news on the oil situation?

In response to Any news on the oil situation? posted by jamesj24:

Yesterday while driving, I tuned in to Brinker's show for a few minutes. At that time Brinker said that he would have an expert oil analyst on the show during the last hour (3PM). When I got home, I remembered that preview, so I turned on the show again at 3PM. I listened to the first segment. The second segment got boring so I switched to something else.

What struck as funny was that Brinker talked about the guest's prediction that oil would have a tough time going above it's all-time high in the low 70's. Brinker went through the scenario that, if anything, Rita would be the catalyst to make this so. But alas, oil seems to be retreating. Therefore, Brinker praised his guest for making a correct prediction.

However, the guest humbly confessed that this was his third prediction. In prior months, the guest said oil would not top the 50's. And when that prediction was proved false, the guest predicted that oil would not top the 60's.

At point, Brinker quiped, "You know that old bromide. When making predictions, predict often." They both had a good chuckle.

-- posted by bob90245

Top 566. Sep 25, 2005 12:07 PM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Any news on the oil situation?

In response to Re: Any news on the oil situation? posted by bob90245
Brinker praised his guest for making a correct prediction. However, the guest humbly confessed that this was his third prediction... At point, Brinker quiped, "You know that old bromide. When making predictions, predict often." They both had a good chuckle.

Bob, thanks for that info. Funny, Bob Brinker's giving him advice on how to follow up on bad predictions. I'm sure Bob could give him a whole seminar that subject. (Please excuse the digs, further below is a positive comment, read on...)

Bob himself was predicting a pullback in oil prices when they were testing $50 a barrel. As someone else said, Bob should stick to predicting the overall stock market.

Bob can have good insights at times and he seems to be well-informed on many topics. He's sometimes interesting to listen to for that reason, but he can be equally annoying with his slanted views on some issues, such as his complaints against CA gov't's allegedly overly-generous pension plans, and his vindictive complaints about employer paid medical benefits for hourly workers'. Doesn't he realize that if we were to have a level playing field with countries like China, American workers would be earning $.45 per hour without benefits or labor protection laws. Our importing of other nation's poverty is another area that will eventually lead to our nation's downfall. The U.S. can't depend on exporting Coca-cola. We can't afford to lose our manufacturing base, and that's what is happening.

I apologize for my rants, but I consider these to be very serious issues.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 567. Sep 25, 2005 3:11 PM

» Moe_Berg - Re: Any news on the oil situation?

In response to Re: Any news on the oil situation? posted by bob90245:

Brinker bashed Bush today pretending that his only position on energy was "drill, drill, drill for oil". What a total crock! Check out the Analysis of the implications of the 2005 Energy Bill passed during August 2005 after being blocked for 5 years by partisan Democrats in the Senate (Chenge "hxxp" to "http").

hxxp://www.icfconsulting.com/markets/energy/energy-act/default.asp

Notice all of the areas other than oil drilling covered by the Energy Bill. Is Brinker IGNORANT, or has be been paid off to spout the propaganda of partisan demogogues? Listening to Charlie Maxwell inerviewed on yesterday's program sure was a lot more informative than Brinker's Energy B.S. today!

-- posted by Moe_Berg

Top 568. Sep 25, 2005 3:15 PM

» SteveT - Re: Re: Re: Any news on the oil situation?

In response to Re: Re: Any news on the oil situation? posted by jamesj24:

james please don’t apologize for being critical of bob. Remember first and foremost he is a showman and entertainer. I suspect he would use similar tactics if he were a used car salesman or carnival hawker.

To be blunt I had every intention of listening to his Saturday show and doing a summary to help out David Korn and posting it on his site. I did start listening and taking notes. After the first half hour I had to stop. It was just to painful to continue. Old bob is simply terrible. He did not listen to the callers. One guy was selling a home with about 80K gain and owed 35K on a second home he was planning on moving to. He wanted to know if he should pay off the mortgage and invest the rest or invest it all and keep the mortgage. Good old bob completely missed that point. They ended up play 20 questions to get back to the groundwork the caller laid out in the first 30 seconds of the call. A bunch of wasted time. A I see it bob comes across as a “know-it-all”. He can’t be listening to the callers. I suspect the screener gives him a little info on what the caller will be asking. He acts distracted. I think it is a very disrespectful way to act towards callers. Later while wait to hear Maxwell it seemed he didn’t know a fund in his model portfolio had a 25K minimum. Maybe that is chump change to bob but I am guessing listening to the questions he gets lately it exceeds the total portfolio value of many of his listeners.

I did listen later to the oil analyst. I remember him from Lou Rukeyser’s show. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i... I think Maxwell is OK but remember he has been involved in the oil industry since 1957. I am sure he knows the old ways of the industry but questioned a few of his comments on some of the alternative energy remarks. Also I thought it curious he seemed to be walking both sides of the fence on ANWR. That is rare most people have opinions on one side or the other. Maybe he has to do that to gain access to industry inside info? I found the information he shared to be of little significance. I am sure he is saving his best stuff for paying clients. No disrespect intended towards Mr. Maxwell.

The important thing to remember about bob brinker is he is a radio entertainer. If you decide to take any of his information regarding financial matters do so with only after doing your own independent research. bob sounds pretty knowledgeable to those that have little experience, but those that have been around the block a time or two probably would make better use of their time taking a nap!

-- posted by SteveT

Top 569. Sep 25, 2005 4:26 PM

» JeffChristy - Re: Any news on the oil situation?

In response to Any news on the oil situation? posted by jamesj24:

James

You said you don't believe in oil shale. Well I do. The reason you haven't seen that much development yet is that Oil has to be above $35 a barrel for it to be profitable. I am invested in Canadian oil companies that will be active in this area in the future. The oil shale in Canada is the second biggest proven oil reserve in the world. Saudi Arabia is the first. I also believe we will see a greater use of ethanol in the future so one of my most recent purchases was ADM. It produces about 1/3 of the total ethanol processed in the US.

-- posted by JeffChristy

Top 570. Oct 1, 2005 2:41 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Bob Brinker's YTD Numbers?

In response to Bob Brinker's YTD Numbers? posted by Kirk:

hello cap't ,

bob usually does print out a year to date return in his newsletter quarterly , but hasn't done so recently except for his end of year return from last year .

my portfolio compared to yours is :

YTD = 3.968%

one year = 8.26%

three year = 53.88%

five year = 68.08%

seven year = 141.27%

not bad for a scared old bear who takes very little risk in the market . my beta is probably pretty low too because of my lack of stock market exposure .

looking at the indices this year , i feel pretty good so far . and my return generates much more income than i'll ever need because of the amount of my critical mass .

congradulations on your performance . appreciate your work here . hope you sell lots of subscriptions . smile .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 571. Oct 1, 2005 5:43 PM

» JeffChristy - Re: Re: Bob Brinker's YTD Numbers?

In response to Re: Bob Brinker's YTD Numbers? posted by allancoleman:

Allen

You are correct that Brinker no longer shows his YTD results on his website. I believe he did back in the 90's. I saved his balance as of 31 Dec 05 and it was $209,885 for portfolio 1. His current balance as of 30 Aug 05 is $213,673. That would give him a YTD number of +1.8%. He was up 13.5% for the year 2004. He beat me by 1% last year but I am significantly ahead of his this year because I am overweighed in energy stocks. As of Fridays close I am up 18% YTD. I have posted a list of the energy stocks that I am currently holding here at 101. Some people including my broker have suggested I lighten up. I gave this considerable thought last week and decided not to. On Thursday I attended a meeting of the society of financial analysts. Someone ask the guest speaker what inning he thought we were in when it comes to energy. He said he thought we were in the third inning of what could be a ten inning game. He is a person who has a great record in the industry and Brinker has bashed him more than once on his show.

-- posted by JeffChristy

Top 572. Oct 2, 2005 12:16 PM

» jamesj24 - Too late for energy?

I'm tempted to just buy a small quantity of oil stocks, regardless the price. They seem to be the only sure winners in the current economic environment. The biggest risk seems to be an economic slowdown, which would severely dampen the demand for oil. However, with growing demand outstripping a dwindling supply, I doubt that even a recession would significantly hurt oil stocks. I'd like owning the stocks because then I would be less bothered by the constant increase in gasoline prices. I might actually feel a little good about it. I have this situation now with my ownership in Costco stock. When I go there, the crowds of people and long lines don't bother me in the least because I own shares of COST.

There might be a way to play options on energy (or any potentially overvalued stock.) For example, buy stock, and put a collar on (sell out of the money calls and buy OTM puts). A collar can pay for itself, for example, buy one hundred shares, sell a call, buy a put for even money. This limits both the upside gain and downside risk.

Thanks for all your comments and summaries on Bob's shows. I get more out of reading this forum than listening to Bob, and save a lot of time and trouble in the process. Though I missed his show yesterday I didn't "miss" it in the least... One day, I hope to be free of the addiction. I'll have critical mass, all in cash and/or I-bonds, and get my excitement, speculating on stocks using options on an insignificantly small percentage of the total.

-- posted by jamesj24