Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 554. Sep 21, 2005 7:23 AM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook

In response to Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by Moe_Berg:

It will be interesting to see if and when Bob's indicators will display a sell signal with all the economic problems that appear to be present on the horizon. Ironically, he's usually contrarian to the current popular outlook. With so much worry already manifest in the stock market, Bob is likely to hold steady with his bullish outlook. This will be a real test of his model.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 555. Sep 21, 2005 7:51 PM

» bob90245 - Re: Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook

In response to Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by jamesj24:

It will be interesting to see if and when Bob's indicators will display a sell signal with all the economic problems that appear to be present on the horizon.

One of Brinker's stock market timing indicators is Valuation. Recall that in 2000 when Brinker previously issued his sell signal (make that a 40-60 tactical asset allocation), valuation was at nose-bleed territory. Currently, that is not the case. So the only other way for this indicator to turn bearish would be if earnings dramatically drop from current levels. As I see it, this would be your reasoning for citing "economic problems" (and a possible recession) influencing Brinker's timing model. Of course, Brinker would have to act ahead of any earnings contraction and issue a "Sell" signal before then.

-- posted by bob90245

Top 556. Sep 21, 2005 8:39 PM

» BoltonCT - Blame game

I did not mean to imply that Bob's timing is political. However it is obvious he likes to play the blame game so he can come up with a rational cause and effect explanation after his timing signal. Bob credits President Clinton for the bull market of the 90s and blames Greenspan for the popping of the bubble and the subsequent recession. I think if Bob were honest he would have blamed Clinton for the bubble and the inevitable pop that occurred on Clinton's watch. Greenspan did exactly what Clinton wanted and saddled President Bush with the recession.

You sound so defensive you must be related to Bob Brinker. Brinker's name will be mud when increasing interest rates bring down the bond market. That inevitable collapse is a no-brainer and almost every economist will tell him that.

-- posted by BoltonCT

Top 557. Sep 21, 2005 9:58 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Brinker's current outlook

In response to Re: Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by bob90245:

unlike others , i agree with your opinion on bob brinker's earnings watch . bob has been very bullish mostly on his outlook for earnings going forward and possibily he can't see that going forward anymore .

in the past bob can be alittle early giving ' sell ' signals . his signal in 2000 was about 3 to 9 months early depending on the index . it will be interesting to listen to bob this next show cause i think bob's going to sound alot like Larry Kudlow talking about Greenspan and company .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 558. Sep 22, 2005 8:36 AM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook

In response to Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by allancoleman: it will be interesting to listen to bob this next show :

Unfortunately, Bob seems to take off on vacation just when these types of things occur, so it may be several weeks before we hear anything from him. His comments about not rebuilding because of the threat of hurricanes was one of the most non-sensical ideas I've ever heard. By the same reasoning, the entire West Coast of California would be uninhabited because of the risk of earthquakes.

I think P/E ratios are stretched now because the current estimates of earnings are inflated due to high expectations. This is most evident in the energy stocks. Energy and Real Estate are the two new "bubbles."

Bob has been complaining of the deficit and excess government spending. Yet, the same blank check spending has been Bush's policy, at least since the 9/11 attacks, and Bob supported it until only very recently. His jawboning the current problems reminds me of his similar complaints about valuations during 1999. He was too early in calling the sell signal, which was another factor that shook my faith in him. He was right on, though about the 3/11 turnaround, a signal which I sadly did not follow.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 559. Sep 22, 2005 8:53 AM

» allancoleman - Re: Brinker's current outlook

In response to Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by jamesj24:

hello james24 ,

although bob was early in his sell signal in 2000 , it didn't matter to me cause i had already sold out in mid 1999 . and i agree that his 3/11 buy signal was excellent , there are those here who would be critical of those who make predictions that aren't exactly right as the market did set a slight lower bottom in the fall of the previous year .

you are correct that bob does tend to be absent when market conditions would require him to make difficult decisions answering callers questions about the current market .

the rest of your comments and my opinion are probably best left to the political forum where i tend to not offer my opinion . not because i don't have an opinion , but because i haven't seen my opinion have the same affect that Greenspan's would . smile . so i just read , lurk , and learn from those more experienced in that field .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 560. Sep 22, 2005 9:11 AM

» bob90245 - Re: Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook

In response to Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by jamesj24:

Am I correct in saying that Brinker also calculates his own earnings estimates (on S&P 500 or Total Market)? If so, I would like to know if Brinker's earnings estimates are higher or lower than the consensus forecast.

-- posted by bob90245

Top 561. Sep 22, 2005 9:54 AM

» allancoleman - Re: Brinker's current outlook

In response to Re: Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by bob90245:

bob was projecting an increase of the S & P 500 earnings outlook , incorporating a 7% growth in profits , from $76 to $77 a share for 2006 . we'll see if that outlook changes in the future .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 562. Sep 22, 2005 10:19 AM

» oldtown4 - Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook

In response to Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by allancoleman:

you are correct that bob does tend to be absent when market conditions would require him to make difficult decisions answering callers questions about the current market . the rest of your comments

-----It is true that Bob seems to be gone at inopportune times. But please remember that Bob typically starts jawboning his signals several months in advance. I distinctly remember the continuous ramblings before the last buy.

It is obvious that he is strongly bullish and is willing to take the market ups and downs in stride...and apparently feels the trend is upward and onward....as hard as it is to beleive right now!!!

The gurus that I follow are all talking about drops in Oct and Nov with big gains later. Who knows, but I have followed Bobbie forever, and he is better than anyone I have found.......yes Im sure some are brighter, but there many who are far worse.

Frankkly I hope we get to 1180.

-- posted by oldtown4