Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+
- BoltonCT
- Moe_Berg
- Moe_Berg
- pete2214
- jamesj24
- bob90245
- BoltonCT
- allancoleman
- jamesj24
- allancoleman
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» BoltonCT - BB is preparing for a sell signal
Just as BB made Greenspan the fall guy with his "excessive rate hikes" the last time, BB is starting to make the GWB deficit and now the possible subsequent inflation the new cause to blame the downturn. He thinks GWB throwing money at reconstructing a sinking city 26 ft below sea level is absurd and predicts the biggest scandals of fraud and corruption are yet to come because of it.BB is building himself the pretext for declaring the end of the cyclical bull. He had better warn long term bond holders soon because short term rates are becoming very competitive and sooner more likely than later, the long term rates will pop up as well.
BB is building himself the pretext for declaring the end of the cyclical bull. He had better warn long term bond holders soon because short term rates are becoming very competitive and sooner or later the long term rates will pop up as well.
-- posted by BoltonCT
» Moe_Berg - Re: BB is preparing for a sell signal
In response to BB is preparing for a sell signal posted by BoltonCT:Bob has a timing model that dictates the timing of his signals. He does not issue signals based upon personal blame for this or that issue. Right or wrong, when the model turns bearish; he will issue a signal. You obviously have had little experience with Brinker's modes operende'.
-- posted by Moe_Berg
» Moe_Berg - Re: Brinker's current outlook
In response to Brinker's current outlook posted by rasputin:I heard him recently review secullar vs. cyclical bear and bull markets on his radio show.
-- posted by Moe_Berg
» pete2214 - Re: FOMC and Inflation Expectation
In response to FOMC and Inflation Expectation posted by Kirk:Its no wonder why Bob is after the maestro's Job!
-- posted by pete2214
» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook
In response to Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by Moe_Berg:It will be interesting to see if and when Bob's indicators will display a sell signal with all the economic problems that appear to be present on the horizon. Ironically, he's usually contrarian to the current popular outlook. With so much worry already manifest in the stock market, Bob is likely to hold steady with his bullish outlook. This will be a real test of his model.
-- posted by jamesj24
» bob90245 - Re: Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook
In response to Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by jamesj24:It will be interesting to see if and when Bob's indicators will display a sell signal with all the economic problems that appear to be present on the horizon.
One of Brinker's stock market timing indicators is Valuation. Recall that in 2000 when Brinker previously issued his sell signal (make that a 40-60 tactical asset allocation), valuation was at nose-bleed territory. Currently, that is not the case. So the only other way for this indicator to turn bearish would be if earnings dramatically drop from current levels. As I see it, this would be your reasoning for citing "economic problems" (and a possible recession) influencing Brinker's timing model. Of course, Brinker would have to act ahead of any earnings contraction and issue a "Sell" signal before then.
-- posted by bob90245
» BoltonCT - Blame game
I did not mean to imply that Bob's timing is political. However it is obvious he likes to play the blame game so he can come up with a rational cause and effect explanation after his timing signal. Bob credits President Clinton for the bull market of the 90s and blames Greenspan for the popping of the bubble and the subsequent recession. I think if Bob were honest he would have blamed Clinton for the bubble and the inevitable pop that occurred on Clinton's watch. Greenspan did exactly what Clinton wanted and saddled President Bush with the recession.You sound so defensive you must be related to Bob Brinker. Brinker's name will be mud when increasing interest rates bring down the bond market. That inevitable collapse is a no-brainer and almost every economist will tell him that.
-- posted by BoltonCT
» allancoleman - Re: Brinker's current outlook
In response to Re: Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by bob90245:
unlike others , i agree with your opinion on bob brinker's earnings watch . bob has been very bullish mostly on his outlook for earnings going forward and possibily he can't see that going forward anymore .
in the past bob can be alittle early giving ' sell ' signals . his signal in 2000 was about 3 to 9 months early depending on the index . it will be interesting to listen to bob this next show cause i think bob's going to sound alot like Larry Kudlow talking about Greenspan and company .
-- posted by allancoleman
» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook
In response to Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by allancoleman: it will be interesting to listen to bob this next show :Unfortunately, Bob seems to take off on vacation just when these types of things occur, so it may be several weeks before we hear anything from him. His comments about not rebuilding because of the threat of hurricanes was one of the most non-sensical ideas I've ever heard. By the same reasoning, the entire West Coast of California would be uninhabited because of the risk of earthquakes.
I think P/E ratios are stretched now because the current estimates of earnings are inflated due to high expectations. This is most evident in the energy stocks. Energy and Real Estate are the two new "bubbles."
Bob has been complaining of the deficit and excess government spending. Yet, the same blank check spending has been Bush's policy, at least since the 9/11 attacks, and Bob supported it until only very recently. His jawboning the current problems reminds me of his similar complaints about valuations during 1999. He was too early in calling the sell signal, which was another factor that shook my faith in him. He was right on, though about the 3/11 turnaround, a signal which I sadly did not follow.
-- posted by jamesj24
» allancoleman - Re: Brinker's current outlook
In response to Re: Re: Brinker's current outlook posted by jamesj24:
hello james24 ,
although bob was early in his sell signal in 2000 , it didn't matter to me cause i had already sold out in mid 1999 . and i agree that his 3/11 buy signal was excellent , there are those here who would be critical of those who make predictions that aren't exactly right as the market did set a slight lower bottom in the fall of the previous year .
you are correct that bob does tend to be absent when market conditions would require him to make difficult decisions answering callers questions about the current market .
the rest of your comments and my opinion are probably best left to the political forum where i tend to not offer my opinion . not because i don't have an opinion , but because i haven't seen my opinion have the same affect that Greenspan's would . 
. so i just read , lurk , and learn from those more experienced in that field .
-- posted by allancoleman
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