Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 541. Sep 12, 2005 1:22 PM

» oldtown4 - Re: Re: Are we approaching a change?

In response to Re: Are we approaching a change? posted by Kirk:

Every once in a while you get one of those "Fun" diatribes from Bobbie that adds sparkle to the show. He went to great lengths, several times as I recall, about how NOBODY can make money buying individual stocks...and read all these books, they prove it........

The reference to Cramer was so obvious that it became funny. Wouldnt it be a hoot if Cramer was actually listening.

Is there anyone keeping track of Cramer's record and results???? Im sure there must be a site someplace we can reference....wouldnt it be laughable if he was losing?

Well, from the little I heard, Mr Brinker continues to be very bullish. Is he releasing any estimates for the S&P?

-- posted by oldtown4

Top 542. Sep 12, 2005 1:54 PM

» solarblast - Re: Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement?

In response to Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement? posted by jamesj24:

Here are two things to consider. 1. My wife is 10 younger than myself and holds a reasonable amount of our total. 2. I'm not quite as conservative as yourself, but I stay reasonably bounded with fixed funds. Our rise in the stock (mutual funds) portfolio does significantly outstrip the growth in fixed funds. This has the effect of moving us away from a balance between the fixed and non-fixed. So if no other reason, to keep the ratio on track, it makes sense to me to move non-fixed investments into fixed even without the consideration of special purchases. As a simple example, suppose one is 50k in each for a total of 100k. The fixed increases by 5% or 52.50 and the non-fixed by 15% to 57.50K. A total of 110K. The new proportion is now 52.50/110 = 0.48 vs 52. Perhaps not much but I think you get the picture. A couple of good years, and you're now 40% vs 60%. An adjustment is needed.

-- posted by solarblast

Top 543. Sep 12, 2005 3:04 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Are we approaching a change?

In response to Re: Re: Are we approaching a change? posted by oldtown4:

hello oldtown4 ,

if you've listened to bob very long you'd realize that bob isn't going to give you his estimate for a " top " in any market . bob has increased his " buy " level to 1180 on the S & P 500 so bob is even more bullish than when he first issued a buy signal at 1120 and then 1160 .

bob has been on record as saying more than once that corrections of less than 10% do not even count in his book . so if you're going to buy on bob's signal , be prepared for that kind of loss with no advice from bob .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 544. Sep 13, 2005 1:51 AM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement?

In response to Re: Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement? posted by by Normxxx: This may result in an overall inflation boost of perhaps 10%—20%. Has this happened before? Yes, after Nixon 'devalued' the dollar in 1972. Have you prepared against these contingencies? :

Thank you for the reminder. The apparent prosperity of our current economy illusory. We are indeed skating on very thin ice.

Just having to pay the tax to fund the current government spending would send this economy into a tailspin. Instead, the whole country is living off the credit extended by other countries, perhaps by the oil-producing countries, reinvesting the money earned from selling us the huge amounts of oil we import, and by China, also buying our bonds with the money earned on their massive sales of cheap goods to us. This Goldilocks economy can't go on forever.

If the scenario you suggest does materialize, I don't think equities will necessarily be the best place to be. Recall that the period you mentioned, 1972-3, was followed by a severe recession and stock market correction in 1974, along with other unfavorable economic conditions (i.e., “stagflation”) that lasted through 1981. Eerily similar to today's circumstances, it involved disruptions in the oil supply. That period was only reversed by the recession of 1982.

It sounds as if I-bonds are indeed a good hedge against this contingency. I've heard several rumblings about inflation lately; some of it is speculation that the Katrina disaster will be inflationary, at least in the construction arena.

Thank you for your good advice. I had better buy those I-bonds soon.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 545. Sep 13, 2005 3:31 AM

» rasputin - Brinker's current outlook

Has anyone heard Bob say anything about a long-term secular bear market lately? I had the opportunity to look at a recent Marketimer and I don't believe a saw any mention of the term.

-- posted by rasputin

Top 546. Sep 13, 2005 6:22 AM

» allancoleman - Re: Brinker's current outlook

In response to Brinker's current outlook posted by rasputin:

not lately . bob's been busy making fun of the " bad news bears " in this cyclical bull market that has reached four year highs .

i've listened to and followed Sy Harding and Bob Brinker . and out of the two , bob's been more right so far this year . course , sy can catch up mightly quick if we have his projected correction later this month ( september ) and next ( october ).

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 547. Sep 13, 2005 10:17 AM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Brinker On Stock Picking (Cramer Jab)

In response to Re: Brinker On Stock Picking (Cramer Jab) posted by Kirk:
Cramer has been getting some very good press of late, much of it is about how his show is rescuing CNBCs ratings and making them good money from sponsors. ...Wouldnt it be a hoot if Cramer was actually listening. Is there anyone keeping track of Cramer's record and results???? Im sure there must be a site someplace we can reference....wouldnt it be laughable if he was losing?
Maybe Bob Brinker is playing “bait and switch” using what experts say about market timing (what he sells) to bash stock pickers...

Why has he recommended holding TEFQX, MSFT and VOD in his newsletter even after the his January 2000 tactical asset allocation? :

I watched Cramer's "Mad Money Show" about 2 months ago and thought it was weird. The novelty of the show appears to be Cramer's talking like a mad man, which does not impress me in the least.
Cramer was one of the masses during the bear market who kept predicting a turnaround prematurely with every bear market rally that turned out to be a dead cat bounce. He and Larry Kudlow jumped on the bandwagon with their new hour long show, not long after 3/11/03, as if they had correctly called the turnaround. No such thing.
There might be something brilliant about the man. Give him credit for having gone very far with very little. Perhaps he has a strange likeability. Interestingly, the observations that he made on the one episode of Mad Money that I saw, have come to pass. For example he said to buy oil stocks even though the market had had an initial rally earlier this year, and he was right on about their continuing even higher to date. I recall that he also forewarned about the fall of Wal-Mart as the king of retail, which also proved to be true. How much of this is cause and effect, I don't know. I doubt that he has a big enough following to affect a stock like WMT.
Kirk, you forgot to mention the UTEK debacle, and his obvious conflict of interest on that stock. He is no doubt a hypocrite about stock picking, having mentioned on the air that, at least in the past, he had traded semiconductor stocks like INTC, KLIC and KLAC (? symbols), buying and selling through their price cycles. Maybe he didn't do well at stock trading in the end.
More likely, I think he discourages individuals from stock trading in an effort to keep his following. Many other advisors do recommend individual stocks. By outright discrediting of that approach, he helps keep his following in the fold. "Stray not to the temptation of the stock pickers." He would do well to start a religion. The Religion of Buy, Hold and Sell According to Bob Brinker. His is a faith-based approach, and one pays dearly for his convictions when the lambs are led in for the slaughter.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 548. Sep 18, 2005 7:36 PM

» bbaddict - Guests on Money Talk

All of the guests have been fantastic, except one... Last week's Al Qaeda expert was worthless. "U.S. should have negotiated with Taliban" "All the intelligence was wrong, so no conclusions can be drawn from anything" and of course "We should have finished the job in Afghanistan". Like the US military went on vacation instead of trying to get Osama Bin Hidin'.

Hopefully, Bob reads this, and decides to stick to Money Talk instead of politics. We hear enough wackos in the media already.

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 549. Sep 18, 2005 7:52 PM

» rasputin - Re: Guests on Money Talk

In response to Guests on Money Talk posted by bbaddict:

Yeah, I think she was way off base. I'm forgetting the title of her book. Negotiate with Al-Qaeda? Yeah, that'll work. Right.

(I actually thought GW would pull ol' Bin Laden out of a freezer and thaw him out around October, 2004. October surprise, indeed. No such luck.)

-- posted by rasputin