Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 534. Sep 11, 2005 3:50 PM

» solarblast - Re: Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement?

In response to Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement? posted by Normxxx:

Yes, the levels are not at their highs of years ago, but we've recovered very nicely after Brinker's call a few years back and despite a good bit of spending from the low then, we are pretty much back to where we started. To make some modest sized purchases, I don't see waiting to get back to the high S&P of a few years ago.

-- posted by solarblast

http://www.syharding.com/comm4.html

Top 535. Sep 11, 2005 4:35 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement?

In response to Re: Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement? posted by solarblast:

I was talking about "waiting" to make withdrawals.

Check out

and

http://comstockfunds.com/index.cfm/act/n...

______________

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 536. Sep 11, 2005 5:52 PM

» JeffChristy - Re: Re: I disagree with Brinker on this one

In response to Re: I disagree with Brinker on this one posted by jamesj24:

James

My favorite oil tanker stock is Frontline FRO. It closed at $44.87 Friday. In the last 12 months the dividend payout was $22.18. For the 12 months prior to that it was $15.71. Here is the detail from Yahoo finance historical price screen.

Sept 5 $2.00
Jun 8 $3.10
Mar 3 $3.50
Feb 3 $5.85
Dec 23 $1.80
Nov 29 $3.43
Nov 23 $2.50
------
$22.18

Aug 26 $1.60
Jun 12 $8.31
Mar 10 $4.50
Nov 28 $1.30
------
$15.71

Cramer said he does not like this stock on his mad money show. I found it when Louie Navellier came to town and made a presentation. He recommended it and I did my own due diligence and bought the stock.

-- posted by JeffChristy

Top 537. Sep 11, 2005 6:20 PM

» JeffChristy - Today on Moneytalk

Did anyone hear the caller today who wanted to put an excess profits tax on oil companies. I think one of the biggest problems facing the entire world today is a shortage of oil and gas. Here in the US we don't have enough refineries to produce enough gasoline as demand rises year by year. One year in the not to distant future we will no longer have a shortage because it will become a crisis. Oil companies use their profits to explore for more oil and would build more refineries if government allowed them to do so. The current situation reminds me of what happened in California a few short years ago. No one built a new electric power plant for ten years as demand continue to grow. Then all of a sudden there were black outs. If this caller gets his excess profits tax passed one day he will go to the filling station and find out that not only is he out of gas but so is the station. I find it hard to believe that Brinker actually agreed with this asinine idea. I would love to discuss this with Kudlow the next time he is on and moneytalk has a host that knows something about economics.

-- posted by JeffChristy

Top 538. Sep 11, 2005 6:54 PM

» ohmmmm - Are we approaching a change?

Seems that investors have wanted to buy stocks lately dispite some bad news about katrina. I guess they remember other recent past hurricanes where the amrket has increased. I guess interest rates are relatively low dispite FED rate increases. So, where do we actually go from here? I aint that smart, but probably has high as continued available credit will take us. It was interesting to note taht one of the first people President Bush spoke with after the hurricane was Alan Greenspan.

On the other side of things, is the relative decrease...probably...of disposable income for most americans due to higher oil prices. I have talked with friends who are cutting back on unnecessry travel....so I bet we see a bigger impact from the storm and further pressure on many restaurant chains.

I also wonder if we will see some significant supply problems down the road in the oil sector. I am assuming that marginal excess supply of oil is decreasing and repairs to oil platforms and in many cases rebuilds will take many many months.

With the FED speculation set to go into hyper drive the next several weeks, it should be interesting to see what the markets do... Post FED rate increase should be interesting as well as the katrina effect will begin to show up in economic reports.

Best wishes

Jim S.

-- posted by ohmmmm

Top 539. Sep 12, 2005 10:00 AM

» jamesj24 - Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement?

In response to Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement? posted by solarblast:

If one is in retirement, it would seem prudent to have plenty of reserves in stable value funds (such as money markets, etc.) anyway. Why would one put his money at risk, especially if he will need it in the near future for various things, as you describe your situation.

With all due respect to those who have huge equity portfolios, there is a more efficient way to go. It consists of having most of one's money in risk-free investments (such as treasury bonds, or cash), and using a small percentage to speculate on individual stocks (or sectors.) Usually this involves buying or selling calls and puts, either nakedly or in spreads.

I myself have more than 70% of my portfolio in cash, and have enjoyed that for many years now. Since the bear market, I cannot get too excited about tying my money up in stocks. I typically have about 10% of my financial assets engaged in stock speculation, and I do all of this using options. So, I don't even have to tie up my money directly, although I do have to maintain a margin requirement to cover naked options.

That is one reason I can't go for Bob's (or most financial advisors') basic recommendations for mutual funds, the SP500, etc., although I do have a small core holding of these as well, which I bought many years ago.

I've been actively following this strategy since April, and my return on the underlying stocks has been about 8%. Most of my trades are on the conservative side.

I usually have to find large cap stocks with high average daily volume for there to be a good options market.

Jim

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 540. Sep 12, 2005 12:46 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement?

In response to Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement? posted by jamesj24:

Currently, the advertised CPI rate is around 3%— but the rate for retirees is around twice or more than that. Moreover, the dollar has already lost over one-third against the Euro over the last several years, and is now increasingly losing ground with our Asiatic 'friends.' If/when they decide to stop subsidizing us (hopefully not a decision that's imminent), the dollar will probably drop about a third with the Asiatic currencies. This may result in an overall inflation boost of perhaps 10%—20%. Has this happened before? Yes, after Nixon 'devalued' the dollar in 1972.

Have you prepared against these contingencies?

Over the last 5 years of "near zero" inflation, I would estimate inflation for seniors is up something over 12%. So, with the interest on your cash, you just may have broken even.

It is not a terribly bad strategy (especially if you have estimated the risks), but it probably is unwise. If it is all in U.S. dollars or equivalent, see Warren Buffet's recent pronouncements on that subject.

______________

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 541. Sep 12, 2005 1:22 PM

» oldtown4 - Re: Re: Are we approaching a change?

In response to Re: Are we approaching a change? posted by Kirk:

Every once in a while you get one of those "Fun" diatribes from Bobbie that adds sparkle to the show. He went to great lengths, several times as I recall, about how NOBODY can make money buying individual stocks...and read all these books, they prove it........

The reference to Cramer was so obvious that it became funny. Wouldnt it be a hoot if Cramer was actually listening.

Is there anyone keeping track of Cramer's record and results???? Im sure there must be a site someplace we can reference....wouldnt it be laughable if he was losing?

Well, from the little I heard, Mr Brinker continues to be very bullish. Is he releasing any estimates for the S&P?

-- posted by oldtown4

Top 542. Sep 12, 2005 1:54 PM

» solarblast - Re: Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement?

In response to Re: Withdrawing Money from Investments after Retirement? posted by jamesj24:

Here are two things to consider. 1. My wife is 10 younger than myself and holds a reasonable amount of our total. 2. I'm not quite as conservative as yourself, but I stay reasonably bounded with fixed funds. Our rise in the stock (mutual funds) portfolio does significantly outstrip the growth in fixed funds. This has the effect of moving us away from a balance between the fixed and non-fixed. So if no other reason, to keep the ratio on track, it makes sense to me to move non-fixed investments into fixed even without the consideration of special purchases. As a simple example, suppose one is 50k in each for a total of 100k. The fixed increases by 5% or 52.50 and the non-fixed by 15% to 57.50K. A total of 110K. The new proportion is now 52.50/110 = 0.48 vs 52. Perhaps not much but I think you get the picture. A couple of good years, and you're now 40% vs 60%. An adjustment is needed.

-- posted by solarblast