Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 511. Aug 28, 2005 7:32 PM

» JeffChristy - I disagree with Brinker on this one

A nice lady called Brinker today and ask him about two oil tanker stocks she owned. I only remember one she mentioned (NAT). Bob was very negative on these stocks. He said he couldn't understand why someone would recommend these stocks for income. As I have mentioned before I own Frontline FRO and General Maratime GMR. Last year FRO had a blow out quarter because a hurricane shut down oil production in the gulf for several weeks. Based on what is currently going on with this hurricane, a category 5 that is hitting those same platforms as I type this, I expect the tankers stocks to be huge winners next week. Bob mentioned that we will lose at least 600,000 barrels a day of crude. That will have to be made up from more oil being imported and transported by tankers. Day rates for oil tankers should go through the roof. It is simple matter of supply and demand. This is the type of thinking I learned from paying attention to Jim Roger (Mr Bowtie). It will be interesting to see who is right as events unfold. I am even thinking of purchasing call options on FRO at tomorrows open.

-- posted by JeffChristy

Top 512. Aug 28, 2005 7:50 PM

» rasputin - This weekend's shows

So, did Bob say anything about the recent pull-back? Just backing and filling? A little correction? I'm wondering if we're looking at a slow, grinding, downhill slide.

-- posted by rasputin

Top 513. Aug 28, 2005 8:18 PM

» allancoleman - Re: This weekend's shows

In response to This weekend's shows posted by rasputin:

bob has already been on record as saying , more than once , that anything less than a 10% decline doesn't even registar . and that anyone who cannot take that kind of loss shouldn't even be in the stock market . and he's right .

myself , i agree with you that we could be in a short term , slow , grinding , downhill slide , for awhile longer . there are those , not bob , that think the market has already set it's lows and highs for the year . and we've been in this trading range for quite awhile .

bob doesn't like to discuss " pull-backs " anymore than Larry Kudlow likes to discuss corrections . however , for those that can get out at these market tops and get back in at market bottoms , it is possible to beat the indexes year to date . and , of course , with most market timing , you're not going to catch the tops or the bottoms . but , if you can catch the trends and be out for most of the downtrend and in for most of the uptrend , it's possible to stay ahead and preserve capital and remember what Normxxx said about a secular bear market , " the person that loses the least , wins " .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 514. Aug 28, 2005 8:53 PM

» allancoleman - Re: This weekend's shows

In response to Re: Re: This weekend's shows posted by Kirk:

hello kirk ,

although i agree with you about those that " sell the idea they can " time the market , i listen to everybody cause as you've observed with your neighbor's 18 times his money ; there's more than one way to make money . i've made 18 times my money in real estate purchased 30 years ago , but usually it's only 5 to 10 times my investment . and i'm very happy with anything more than a double .

one of the reasons i haunt most of suit101's forums . thanks for providing me , and others , with a free education . in the meanwhile , i'll just keep reading and making my dumb luck timing guesses and preserving capital and maintaining critical mass .

in the mean while , perhaps rasputin should invest in your newsletter to improve his returns . ? ? or maybe you could send him a free sample copy . ? ?

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 515. Aug 29, 2005 2:28 PM

» JIMMY62 - Re: Re: Brinker is the best at promoting Brinker and...

In response to Re: Brinker is the best at promoting Brinker and... posted by allancoleman:

although there are those here who belittle bob's " gift horse " buy signals

Your larger point is well taken, not allare fully invested, always.

My gripe with the GIFT HORSE is that Bob time and again called bottom when he never called a top.

You corectly found a top in March 2005. Bob did not. Then Bob issued a buy signal at 1020 or somehting.

-- posted by JIMMY62

Top 516. Aug 29, 2005 3:09 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Brinker is the best at promoting Brinker and...

In response to Re: Re: Brinker is the best at promoting Brinker and... posted by JIMMY62:

i think bob , himself , has said in the the past that he would be happy to get within a percent of two of the top or the bottom .

and your comparison of me calling the top in march and bob not calling the top isn't completely fair to bob because bob isn't going to do any short term market timing . and unless the correction is more than 10% , bob and others aren't even going to notice it . i do and that's one of the reasons i don't solely use bob as my market indicators . but these dips usually doesn't bother the " buy and hold " crowd .

and you're correct that bob's first buy signal this spring was at the S & P 500 1120 level . however lately bob has called for an outright buy at S & P 500 1160 . and the market has been there twice at the market close and several more times intraday .

in the end , i find it difficult to find fault with folks willing to stick their necks out and make predictions . i just listen to everybody . follow nobody . and make up my own mind . and am willing to take total responsibity for that decision and not blame someone else for not giving me an absolutely buy or sell point . afterall , it's my money .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 517. Aug 31, 2005 4:50 PM

» bbaddict - Oil Prices

Not sure if anyone caught this, but on Saturday, Bob was correctly saying the oil is not near the $90 inflation-adjusted highs from 1980-81, 25 years ago. So, he has corrected his statements that it was at $90 in 1990-91.

He did not make any acknowledgment of his previous errors, but just started giving the right years.

Maybe someone from his org reads this thread?

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 518. Aug 31, 2005 5:54 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Oil Prices

In response to Oil Prices posted by bbaddict:

i doult it . would you , if you were bob . ?

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 519. Sep 4, 2005 11:47 AM

» jamesj24 - Re: I disagree with Brinker on this one

In response to I disagree with Brinker on this one posted by JeffChristy:

...Bob was very negative on these [oil tanker] stocks. ...Based on what is currently going on with this hurricane, a category 5 that is hitting those same platforms as I type this, I expect the tankers stocks to be huge winners next week.

Jeff Christy, how right you were and how wrong Bob was!!! By sheer chance or coincidence, I had bought 200 shares of TOPT, an oil tanker stock 2 weeks before Bob made his comment on the air. We see what Bob indicated, which was negative for the group overall, was wrong, and the complete opposite actually happened. I noticed the nice woman who called dodged Bob's venim for having made this investment, by saying she had bought them because they paid good dividends. Bob could hardly hold himself back from attacking her nonetheless.

What is strange about this is that Bob was actually announcing, with significant dramatic value, that he expected significant disruptions in oil supply from the approaching hurricane. I was concerned about my investment in TOPT after hearing Bob's negative view on the stocks as a group, but held on to it, and WOW!, what great results with just 1-2 days!

Bob's nixxing the stocks is another example of the fact that Bob simply cannot be relied upon to pick individual stocks. Either he's lousy at it, or he was being strategic: not having bought the stocks yet, he wanted to depress the prices as much as possible until he could load up on them Monday morning at the opening. I actually think this is most likely, because he's not a stupid man. He's quite clever. He couched his negative view by saying how volatile the oil tanker stocks were, and an little old lady like the caller should not be invested in such stocks.

He seems to be right about the broad market most of the time, but he should be completely disregarded, or in some cases, considered a contrary indicator, about individual issues.

Perhaps it is with good reason that he "doesn't give advice about individual stocks on the air." When he makes an exception to this rule, WATCH OUT!

-- posted by jamesj24