Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 494. Aug 17, 2005 10:13 PM

» EdO3 - Re: Re: Re: Oil Price

In response to Re: Re: Oil Price posted by bbaddict:

I know this will not be a popular suggestion, but one simple way to save gas and money is simply to drive slower. I've experimented with two different vehicles driving the freeway at an average of 70 mph on one tank full and then at 55 mph on another. The result was a 20% to 25% improvement on mph at the slower speed. (Remember they mandated the speed limit to 55 mph during that gas shortage in the 70's?)(I would imagine the savings might be considerable for SUV drivers.)

One has to use common sense about this, so as not to be impeding the general flow of traffic, but there are many situations when you can just stay in that right lane, let the traffic fly by you, find something good to listen to, and arrive stress-free and a few bucks ahead of the game. In most cases, the extra time it takes is unconseqential. Try it if you want to save a buck or two.

-- posted by EdO3

Top 495. Aug 19, 2005 5:07 AM

» Moe_Berg - Re: Save gas and money is simply to drive slower

In response to Re: Re: Re: Oil Price posted by EdO3:

Excellent idea! But instead of driving too slow on the Interstate, one could intentionally take slower back roads that take take one to where one is going whenever possible.

-- posted by Moe_Berg

Top 496. Aug 19, 2005 8:41 AM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Inflation Adjusted Oil Price

In response to Re: Inflation Adjusted Oil Price posted by Kirk:

What is striking to me in the above graph is oil’s big fall from high prices matches the decline in interest rates AND the great bull market in equities that ran from 1982 to 2000.

Wow. Further study certainly warranted here... How about the above graph overlaid with a graph of CPI, and CPI-Ex-Energy?

If Bob Brinker is saying gasoline is cheaper than it was in 1991, adjusted for inflation, then he is very wrong as this graph shows.

Actually, he says that OIL is less than the $90 inflation-adjusted price of 1991, not GAS. Maybe there are some refinery pricing pressures that make gas/oil much more expensive now.

Good work, Kirk!

-- posted by bbaddict

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Top 497. Aug 19, 2005 9:55 AM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Re: Re: Inflation Adjusted Oil Price

In response to Re: Re: Re: Inflation Adjusted Oil Price posted by Kirk:

Wow. I hope that Bronker's staff reads this board, and asks him to clarify this. What I can verify from pricing stats is this:

Oil spiked in October 1990 to $34.69/bbl

A 2005 dollar was worth $.676 in 1990, making $34.69 equal to $51.31 today. This is far from the inflation-adjusted $90 that Bob keeps mentioning. So, in real dollars, oil IS more expensive today than in 1990. Now I must make corrections to much of my analysis.

Here is a good site with many detailed graphs of oil price history:

Any clarification or corrections, Bob?

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 498. Aug 19, 2005 10:03 AM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Re: Re: Inflation Adjusted Oil Price

In response to Re: Re: Re: Inflation Adjusted Oil Price posted by Kirk:

BTW, the $51 from my above calculation matches what the graph shows.

Maybe Bob just got the dates mixed up. Oil spiked at $90+ (inflation-adjusted) in 1980-81, not 1990-91.

That makes more sense. It never really was fair to compare today's STRONG price rise to the temporary spike of 1990-91. But the high prices in 1980 took a couple of years to dissipate.

But the most important aspect of these charts is that the price spikes were recessionary!. Big time.

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 499. Aug 19, 2005 10:27 AM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Inflation Adjusted Oil Price

In response to Re: Inflation Adjusted Oil Price posted by Kirk:

What caused that drastic price drop in around 1986?

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 500. Aug 22, 2005 2:02 AM

» jamesj24 - How does Bob keep his ratings up? ... and more on oil...

I tuned in Saturday and heard Larry Kudlow's gruff voice, and immediately shut the radio off for the weekend.

I don't know how people keep listening to the show when a substitute is on. I can only listen about half the time when Bob is on, when he's not ranting against workers' benefits or gov't pensions. I wish he'd shut up and focus on what he knows: timing the broad market.

Regarding the price of oil: even if it were equal to the all-time inflation adjusted high that occurred in 1981, doesn't that imply the economics of 1981? There was a double digit spike in inflation, which was coincident with a recession, a case of true "stagflation". Therefore, I take no comfort in the fact that oil is catching up with prior levels on an inflation adjusted basis. Economic growth occurs when value is created. When the price of a basic commodity like crude oil becomes so inflated that is like a tax, reducing the creation value in the economy. Or rather, value is created, but it is immediately paid back in the form of a "tax" of higher oil prices.

For now, the economy is chugging along, just because we can still buy plenty of oil. Productivity has had to make up for the higher prices. Soon it will have other negative impacts on the ecnomy. In about 5 years, this epoch of our cheap oil economy will probably be over.

Oil stocks might be the place to be, despite the runup.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 501. Aug 22, 2005 6:25 AM

» allancoleman - Re: How does Bob keep his ratings up? ... and more on oil...

In response to How does Bob keep his ratings up? ... and more on oil... posted by jamesj24:

agree with ya about bob being off alot lately . Larry also mentioned that he'd be on again in acouple more weekends . ? sad ? . between terry savage , larry , and bill flanigan , perhaps they should change the name of the show to , " bob & company " . ? ?

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 502. Aug 22, 2005 7:03 AM

» clocker - Re: How does Bob keep his ratings up? ... and more on oil...

I actually enjoy Larry and especially Terry. I actually feel like they do homework and keep up on current topics. Bill had routinely filled in for Bob in the past. Then I heard Larry substitute a year or two ago. I really enjoyed the fact he had on several guests that weekend including Elaine Garzarelli. I enjoyed hearing those quests' comments. It takes more preparation to do a show with that content. I feel Bob doesn't work at his show hard enough. He's coasting. When I hear his voice I feel I'll likely hear nothing new.

Terry keeps current and gives direct specific answers when people ask questions. She doesn't preach at the caller, rant "When did I ever say that?" or dodge the question. When Bob isn't able to answer a question, he may say, "That's a question for your accountant." You likely won't get that from Terry. She's a financial journalist,and she's able to clearly and articulately discuss topics that are in the minds of the listening audience. I feel she's more adept at answering whatever someone may ask. Bob, on the other hand, screens out what he doesn't want to discuss, and is less specific in his answers than he used to be. Terry can take over the show anytime as far as I'm concerned. Bob can fill in whenever Terry or Larry are away for the weekend.

-- posted by clocker