Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 481. Aug 12, 2005 12:59 PM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Housing bubble and economy

In response to Re: Housing bubble and economy posted by Normxxx:

tough crowd...

I guess I should have said, "A lot of homeowners have been in their homes since before the current creative financing craze, and have not refinanced...

I was just trying to calculate the current percentage of households that would have adjustable rate mortgages. It is somewhere between 20 and 33%.

And, thanks for mentioning Clinton. I had forgotten about when he and his co-conspirators changed the way we measure the CPI to make their administration look better. He was/is the master of twisting statistics to his own favor, to gain the hearts of those with limited logic/analytical skills. The truth and the Clintons are not friends.

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 482. Aug 12, 2005 2:20 PM

» bbaddict - Re: Housing bubble and economy

Sorry, I misspoke earlier...Any migration of investors from equities to bonds would tend to reduce bond rates..

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 483. Aug 12, 2005 2:29 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Housing bubble and economy

In response to Re: Re: Housing bubble and economy posted by bbaddict:

He was/is the master of twisting statistics to his own favor, to gain the hearts of those with limited logic/analytical skills. The truth and the Clintons are not friends.

But I notice the Bushites have not exactly fallen all over themselves to change the calculation back. If you think there is one iota of difference bewteen the flavor of pols, you must be on the good side of $20 mill or so.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 484. Aug 12, 2005 7:27 PM

» JeffChristy - Re: Re: If a tree falls in the woods...

In response to Re: If a tree falls in the woods... posted by Kirk:

Kirk

Good discussion question...

Here is another one for you. The cost of gasoline is just one part of consumer energy spending. I doubt you are spending any money to heat your house right now. But people who are shocked by the current price of gasoline are in for another shock starting this fall when they get their heating bills. Natural gas prices are also going through the roof. Brinker will probably be talking about this in November when someone calls in complaining about their heating bill.

As I stated previously, I started over weighting the energy sector in January 2004. Based on today's close, my portfolio is up 14.7% YTD. One area that I have liked in the past was Canadian natural gas trusts. I own PWI and PGH. They are paying out dividends that are in the mid teens based on what I paid for them in 2004. I currently have about 50% appreciation on PWI. They were a good area to go into for yield last year. This year I have bought two oil tanker companies FRO and GMR. They pay out most of their earnings in dividends.

-- posted by JeffChristy

Top 485. Aug 13, 2005 8:29 AM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Re: Re: Housing bubble and economy

In response to Re: Re: Re: Housing bubble and economy posted by permabear:

I know this is not the forum for politics, and I shouldn't have brought it up. And will not again.

[ Kirk's Editor Comment: Good. Hopefully you saved the rest of your text to repost in the proper forum as I deleted it here. Anyone that is interested in debating politics is more than welcome to follow you over there to discuss your comments.

It takes a good deal of work to move posts so people like you who have been warned cost me lots of time. Politics can quickly ruin a useful discussion board so I discourage it here.

EVERYONE has an opinion about politics so Brinker is not unique in having opinions about politics. I don't give a plugged nickle what Brinker's politics are... I just hope his commentary sticks to investing so he can help us make money or understand the process of making money. Lets stick to topics of investing here. ]

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 486. Aug 13, 2005 8:56 AM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Re: If a tree falls in the woods...

In response to Re: Re: If a tree falls in the woods... posted by JeffChristy:

I just heard Stuart Varney on the tube saying:

"Diesel prices are over $3 per gallon, and the truckers are having to pay it. That is inflationary and will slow the economy."

Which brings me back to my point... If the price goes up, but the economy slows, is it "inflationary"?

Regarding the deleted post...Is it fair to say that the economy of the 90's was built on a bubble, and unsustainable?

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 487. Aug 13, 2005 1:21 PM

» Happy_2 - Oil Price

Bob Brinker keeps saying oil prices are no problem because they spiked much higher 15 years ago. What Bob doesn't realize is that the peak price 15 years ago was a very, very temporary event. As I recall within a few weeks, prices had tumbled back to something more normal. This time the price of $67 a barrel was achieved gradually over a long time and shows no sign of falling much. Even if oil falls back to $50 the effect on the economy will be more than a brief spike that happened 15 years ago.

-- posted by Happy_2

Top 488. Aug 13, 2005 2:40 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Oil Price

In response to Oil Price posted by Happy_2:

Of course, today's adage is that we are using oil "more efficiently," i.e., fewer barrels per person (now there's a stat to be reckoned with— 'BPP'). Somehow, though, I can't seem to take much comfort in that.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 489. Aug 13, 2005 5:06 PM

» JeffChristy - Re: Re: Re: Re: If a tree falls in the woods...

In response to Re: Re: Re: If a tree falls in the woods... posted by Kirk:

Kirk

You ask if I have an exit strategy. I felt we were in about the 4th or 5th inning of this energy shortage yesterday, From what I have heard today it may be the 3rd or 4th inning. As Brinker said today oil has to go to $90 to equal the peak back in 1991 adjusted for inflation. I did some selling based on PE but reallocated that money back into other energy related stocks with lower PE's. Today someone ask Brinker about investing in energy funds and he said he wouldn't do it now. As long as demand keeps increasing and I don't see supply out pacing that gowth, I don't see a need to sell unless market cap looks way to high.

My next move will be to research small electric utilities next week. Jim Rogers (Mr. Bowtie) mentioned on Cavuto's show that the law restricting holding companies was just repealed and he thinks most of the small eclectic utilities will be bought out. This seems fairly low risk if I limit my buying to one that look solid and are paying decent dividends. A guy also ask Brinker about fannie mae. The caller was worried that they might have further accounting problems. Bob said he didn't own it so he didn't have an opinion. I wondered if that was true. I wouldn't be surprised if several of the mutual funds he recommends hold that stock. FNM is jim Rogers favorite short position. He expects the stock to go much lower.

I am also interested in ethanol but can't find a pure play. A caller ask Brinker about adding more of it to gasoline. This is something I was thinking about last month. It could be a quick fix when this shortage becomes a crisis. I discussed it with a friend who sells ethanol. He told me that the current cost is less than $1.50 a gallon. He thought we could go from 90 10 to 85 15. He said there was already one station locally that was 85 15. ADM appears to be the biggest producer. If you know of any others let me know.

-- posted by JeffChristy