Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Withdrawal Srategies: Articles and more

Top 441. Jul 26, 2005 8:51 AM

» bob90245 - Re: Trinity Study

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Critical Mass posted by Kirk:

Sorry, but the AAII website has changed so I don't have a link to the article.

No problem, Kirk. That was one of the articles here:

I was lucky enough to find an archived version. So I stored it on my website:

Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable

-- posted by bob90245

Top 442. Jul 26, 2005 9:09 AM

» iamacamera - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Critical Mass

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Critical Mass posted by Kirk:

Kirk,
I don't doubt a word of your analysis. My approach was a theoretical one designed to stop me worrying. I never needed to take 6% even in the lean years.
In real life I had the good luck to retire in the middle of a great bull market and for 5 years far exceeded my theoretical 6% earnings. Thanks to Brinker I missed most of the 2000-2003 bear. Essentially I plateaued for 3 years (b/c I lost a great deal of my earnings for these 3 years on the Qs, and I spent some.)but since then I've profited from the bull, again thanks to BB.
I don't calculate my return year by year. Instead I calculate my net worth at the end of the year. I am over $1M up since I retired so absent a global calamity I won't be eating dog food.
There are 2 reasons for this:
1. Luck - If you have 3 down years in the market immediately after retiring you could have a real problem down the road, but I had the opposite.
2. Having a correct round trip exit and entry point from BB. I don't believe he can do this forever but whether it was luck (again) or skill The effect of missing a terrible bear is enormous.

I agree with your advice about rebalancing and I do it every year, so if BB misses the bottom I am no worse off than a 50-50 buy and holder, except that I evaded the bear.
I'm probably not explaining this very well but the nearest analogy is the golfer who is in the clubhouse with 6 under par. Nobody can take that away from him. True he may not do as well in the next round but he has the 6 under par in his pocket.

-- posted by iamacamera

Top 443. Jul 26, 2005 9:37 AM

» iamacamera - Re: Re: Re: Re:Old Age Insurance

In response to Re: Re: Re:Old Age Insurance posted by permabear:

Permabear,
Brinker is very, very negative about avoiding medical and LTC expenses. He usually cuts off the caller brusquely.

The other point of view is that the rules are there to be used so there's nothing wrong in using them. (An annuity salesman told me that)

U/L there has been some change since I looked, Medicaid does not take the house if there is a spouse living in it though if the 2nd spouse ends up on medicaid they will, in most states, put a lien on it. So only the heirs get bitten. I think a spouse can keep about $90k and also some income.

BTW if you go into a "home" in the UK, the same thing happens so don't think it is always greener elsewhere.

Don't ever forget that having medical insurance is NOT the same as having medical treatment. Just b/c it is the same in the US doesn't make it true elsewhere. Socialist health care is rationed by availability as eg in Canada and the UK.

Frankly I don't want to pay for your health care nor do I expect you to pay for mine, although to be honest you are, b/c I'm on medicare as are 90+% of over 65s.

-- posted by iamacamera

Top 444. Jul 26, 2005 9:51 AM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Critical Mass

In response to Re: Re: Re: Critical Mass posted by BrianMcG:

...but the aggressiveness with which the salesman tried to sell me raised serious doubts in my mind. One persistently asked to come to my home. I consented and was given a slick pitch; when I demurred, the salesman showed his anger. ... I hope, of course, that I made the right decision. Now several years later, I am still in good health; I have several thousand dollars more in my investment account. Part of my thinking was my own family experience. None of my parents or grandparents ever needed LT care and thus would not have benefited from such a policy.

Not all sales of long term care insurance is as you describe. My mother is covered through CA PERS, the CA retirement system, which is a non-profit organization. She pays a modest premium, which has increased by a small amount since she began coverage. The policy provides full in-home coverage, and is indexed for inflation. She has full piece of mind that she will never have to leave her home to get care.

That's what insurance is all about -- peace of mine. All insurance is expensive in the sense that most people pay for it but never get any payback. The odds are that you won't have to use it, and that's the reason that the risk of a great loss can be spread out over a very large group of purchasers, making each purchasers premium (more) affordable. The insurance "premium" is the price one pays for peace of mind.

Insurance is most appropriate for the wealthy and for those who perceive themselves as facing amount of significant risk of losing a significant amount of money.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 445. Jul 26, 2005 10:33 AM

» Rob_Larsen - Re: Re: Re: Critical Mass

In response to Re: Re: Critical Mass posted by Kirk:

Hi Kirk,

It is hard to believe that it's been 5 years since we were having lunch together. I brought the QQQ letter with me to lunch and we verified it was in fact true. I'm still underwater on that, but hey, what can you do? Life goes on. I believe my success was the real estate rentals that I had in Northern California and sold somewhere in the middle, certainly not here near the top or the high anyway. My small pension from 20 years employment isn't all that much because I wasn't 50 years old. I have followed the Dave Ramsey principle, you can only save and make money when you have NO bills. I haven't had a credit card or car payment in about 15 years. I credit my grandfather for instilling in me at a very young age...."If you can't afford to pay cash, you don't need it" and I stuck to that principle my entire life.

The pension that I'll get from the teachers fund won't be that big either because I started late in life, but a few bucks will be better than nothing. It's nice to work because one wants to, not because one has to :-)

I look forward to being back on Suite 101. Too bad Randy had to leave the Suite due to work conflicts :-( he was truly valuable to me when deciding what to do when I pulled the work plug.

Rob

-- posted by Rob_Larsen

Top 446. Jul 26, 2005 10:39 AM

» Jeremy77 - Re: Re: Terry Savage, fill-in

She's threatened to give out someone's name over the airways who may, or may not have borrowed & repaid, or not, a $50,000. loan. Great radio. Give me a break. She's also hyper. (Personal opinion). Again, Brinker pays for his commercials.

-- posted by Jeremy77

Top 447. Jul 26, 2005 2:36 PM

» permabear - Re: Re: Re: Terry Savage, fill-in

In response to Re: Re: Terry Savage, fill-in posted by Jeremy77:

Anyone is better than Bill Flanagan. As soon as I hear the guy's voice, I have to turn off the radio. He often doesn't answer the questions accurately or has to defer to callers to get the answers. An average stock broker knows more about money than this guy.

-- posted by permabear

Top 448. Jul 27, 2005 8:57 AM

» JIMMY62 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Terry Savage, fill-in

In response to Re: Re: Re: Terry Savage, fill-in posted by Kirk:

No, the screener made them do it.

-- posted by JIMMY62

Top 449. Jul 27, 2005 9:35 PM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Re: Terry Savage, fill-in

In response to Re: Re: Terry Savage, fill-in posted by Jeremy77:

Doesn't Terry Savage look like the mother on "Malcolm in the Middle"? They resemble each other and they're both hyper. I'd much rather hear Malcom's Mom on the radio, though, than Terry Savage. She'd be more entertaining.

When she was doing that bit about a dating service on "Money Talk", she seemed to be running out of material.

-- posted by jamesj24