Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 414. Jul 24, 2005 11:22 AM

» bbaddict - Re: Oil

In response to Oil posted by Jeremy77:

Brinker has stated that the price of oil, risk- adjusted for inflation, is the same as in 1990.

Yes, but in he recent past, oil has risen dramatically faster than the inflation rate. In the past 2 years, this spike in oil costs did not show up as any spike in inflation.

If oil prices go up, AND cost of discretionary (Chinese) purchases, AND rates, something's gotta give. I think it spells slowdown.

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 415. Jul 24, 2005 11:37 AM

» Normxxx - Re: Critical Mass

In response to Critical Mass posted by bbaddict:

My biggest reaction was one of relief and well-being. I really began to enjoy life and nothing at work (or even in my private life) much bothered me anymore. I slowed down my lifestyle, and stopped to smell the roses. In fact, I began to enjoy my work so much that I postponed 'retirement' for several years. I can't say 'retirement' has changed my lifestyle much, except that I spend much too much time on Kirk's site!

Obviously, CM must allow for property taxes, insurance, medical costs, food, utilities, travel, entertainment, and windsurfing. But the only (potential) killer is medical costs. The best thing to do here is to try to spend the last few years of your career with the Federal Government or with a generous State Government. That's my best suggestion. Also, if you want to be considerate of your heirs, get some LT Care insurance.

My backup plan was always to comit some Federal crime and be sent to a minimum security Federal pen. Conditions there are not so bad; you get your three squares and medical for life, or as long as you remain there. It's probably better than most nursing homes.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 416. Jul 24, 2005 12:20 PM

» Jeremy77 - Re: Critical Mass

I haven't been bored, but then again, I never had a job I loved. So it was easy retiring. I never traveled much while working, mainly short trips. I'd like to travel throughout the U.S. I'm not really adventerous but I'd really like to go tornado chasing. (Without anyone getting hurt). There are "Tornado chasing vacations," sounds a little strange. Even though I have plenty of $, I still look for bargains. Don't use heater, except maybe a little in winter. Gas and electric never more than $50. This month,$17. Of course, it helps being in S.F. Shop at Costco, etc. Eat out occasionally. Some people don't realize how expensive it is to eat out.( $ goes a long way at Costco, Trader Joes etc), healthy food also. Luckily not into expensive clothes, cars, etc. Just bought first new car, Toyota Corolla. Own a home outright in S.F., prop. 13, low prop. tax. Presently have 60% in Fidel. Total St. Mkt. Index, 10% in Internat. Index, 30% bonds. Will probably move 10-20% more to bonds in near future. Medical keeps going up, I'm in early 50's. I have Kaiser, min. 10% increase ea. yr. Really jumps at age 65. ( then Medicare, S.S., medicaid also, hopefully). Have always paid off credit card ea. mo. Have never lived beyond my means. Now I could, still don't. Not materialistic, I guess. Still can have a good life without too many frills. Would rather have $ to leave wife and son when pass., hopefully not from 1st tornado chas. trip. I don't use more than approx. 4% of savings ea. year. $ should cont. to grow this way. Exercise everyday, more energy. Luckily started dollar cost ave. into market at early age. Also started same for my son when he was 2 yrs. old. Haven't told him what it's worth yet, he's 17.

-- posted by Jeremy77

Top 417. Jul 24, 2005 12:37 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Critical Mass

In response to Re: Critical Mass posted by Jeremy77:

Haven't told him what it's worth yet, he's 17.

Very astute. If at all possible, keep it from him (or under constraints) for at least another 13 years or so, depending on his maturity.

But, medicaid? How do you qualify for medicaid if you are at CM?

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 418. Jul 24, 2005 12:46 PM

» Moe_Berg - Re: why higher oil prices is not inflationary

In response to Re: Re: posted by bbaddict:

Many economists suggest that inflation is a monetary phenominum where the growth in money, including outstanding credit, exceeds the growth in the supply of goods and services. In theory, if the growth in the supply of money, including credit, remains constant in relation to the growth in goods and services, then an increase in price of a singled out item such as oil would be offset by a price decrease in one or more other items. Thus the supply of money, including credit, is ultimately spread over all goods and services on a market basis.

Cappish?

-- posted by Moe_Berg

Top 419. Jul 24, 2005 1:29 PM

» Jeremy77 - Re: Re: Re: Critical Mass

I guess I won't qualify. I'm early 50's. If I reach 65, who knows what gov't programs will still be around.

-- posted by Jeremy77

Top 420. Jul 24, 2005 2:12 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Critical Mass

In response to Critical Mass posted by bbaddict:

hi bbaddict ,

congradulations on asking the right questions before getting to critical mass . most just wander their way into it .

i agree with Normxxx about " relief and well - being " . retirement is so good , i can hardly believe it . Normxxx is also right about budgeting for health care coverage . nothing like a major medical problem to erase your critical mass .

i agree with Jeremy77 that a 4% withdrawal should provide you with enough money to last your life time UNLESS Normxxx's TEOTWAWKI ( the end of the world as we know it ) happens . smile .

yours , and my , strategy of zero debts definitely makes retirement budgeting easier . personally one of my first adjustments was to move my personal spending budget of $50k a year to over $75k a year to cover my additional income taxes for plus or minus $100k a year ROTH conversions i've been doing lately and to allow for additional spending to cover my continued growth in my total assets .

i am also much more sensitive to risk now that i have critical mass . and when , at points in time in my life in the past , i didn't hesitate to make my stock asset allocation 100% during the secular bull market of the 90's and made quite a bit of money , i don't do that anymore . recently i was as much as 80% stocks and am now very comfortably at 9% .

good luck . there'll be surprises but you can get through them with enough money .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 421. Jul 24, 2005 3:56 PM

» SteveT - Re: Re: Re:

In response to Re: Re: posted by bbaddict:

I think it would be unwise to assume that just because oil has not to this point triggered any significant increase in inflation, that it won’t at some point in the future.

Does anyone know of a web site that lists what percentage of GDP energy costs are?

-- posted by SteveT

Top 422. Jul 24, 2005 5:32 PM

» pbradford6 - Re: Critical Mass

In response to Critical Mass posted by bbaddict:

Hi BBaddict

I took an early retirement at 59 because I no longer was capable of performing all my duties. Fortunately, I had a major disability policy that paid me $4000/month. I had already reached critical mass through frugal living and had my house paid and no debt. I was very, very fortunate avoiding the stock market collapse after retiring. I give credit to BB and credit for becoming fully invested again on March 11th 2003. Knowing then what I know now, I wouldn’t have had the confidence to have jumped back into the market when I did. But I am extremely grateful that I did.

My wife and I took several cruises initially, but I soon found I had too much time on my hands. I started doing part time work which didn’t impact on my disability payments and continue to do so because I enjoy working with children and seniors. My biggest surprise is discovering I am spending more on my monthly expenses. I have the money and I think Brinker has convinced me to start spending so I have poured money into my existing home in southern Ca to improve it. I have the advantage of proposition 13 and have lived in this house since 1970! My real estate taxes are a joke.

My biggest concern is staying healthy and enjoying life. I have decided that if I ever wake up without some sort of minor pain, soreness, or ache I’ll be dead! I make it a habit of never complaining and try to watch my weight and exercise but I do observe the effects of ageing and they are a bummer. All in all I think I have a great life. Good luck with your future retirement. BTW I think for a person to have a comfortable retirement, he needs $1,500,000.

-- posted by pbradford6