Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 394. Jul 18, 2005 9:08 AM

» JIMMY62 - Re: Re: off-presidential election years

In response to Re: off-presidential election years posted by iamacamera:

Right about the year, time seems to be slipping right on by. Thanks for the helping hand.

How to say this without being sharp or rude?
Those who monitored this thread in the months before the start of this war in Iraq will recall that a colorful poster (AKA will) was predicting the start of the war and Bob's call weeks in advance. About the start of the war. I just seemed to me that an armada gathered at the edge Iraq meant something.

Whatever, the drum I am beating is Bob's use of the stock market almanac.

-- posted by JIMMY62

Top 395. Jul 18, 2005 9:26 AM

» allancoleman - Use of calendars for market predictions

after further thought , i've determined , for myself , it doesn't matter weither bob brinker uses a calendar for his market predictions or not .

Sy Harding uses a calendar almost exclusively , and aside from MACD fine tuning , seems to be pretty effective doing it . course i've only personally started following Sy last fall and it will be interesting seeing if the market does test another low this october / november time frame as it did last year .

just thoughts on using calendars or almanacs on market timing .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 396. Jul 18, 2005 9:45 AM

» JIMMY62 - Re: Re: Off-presidential election years "MOABO"

In response to Re: Off-presidential election years "MOABO" posted by Kirk:

Overall his predictive abilities with dates (using a calendar) were about equal to a coin flip where his Nasdaq 100 rally failed to materialize but his MOABO bottom in Q4 of 2002 did happen. Maybe he would be more correct to say “besides no longer recommending specific stocks due to poor performance, we’ve decided to no longer predict length and durations of rallies. We now only predict major turning points.”

I bet we could find his predicting an end for the bear market in 2002 in one of the newsletters. Too bad I can’t offer a prize for the first to quote issue, page and paragraph for MOABO.

Despite all my critical comments for Bob Brinker not including his QQQQ advice in his official results, I think his prediction for a 2002 bottom was stellar. The funny part was he was still so bearish that when we had the 2002 MOABO bottom all he could say in his newsletter at the time was “All bear markets eventually end.”

All of your comments are truth.

And it is just too bad.

Before Bob revealed himself so much and became so cautious THE PROGRAM was a lot more fun.

Bob’s revealed character aside, if he started the next program with a comment to the effect of, “Now is the time to sell your equities.” I would be logging on to the TD Waterhouse site on Monday morning with visions of selling dancing in my head.

-- posted by JIMMY62

Top 397. Jul 18, 2005 9:46 AM

» bbaddict - Some TA

I have always been curious of the use of technical analysis of the market, but have not used it.

The graph above in Kirk's post reminds me of a question... Using the 200 day moving average has always seemed like a good use of TA for the broad market. A breakout above or below can tell you the momentum. Your triggers would have to be x% above or below the MA, else you get caught doing trades in the "noise" near the MA.

Anyone here use that, and if so, what are your x%?

But my question is about Bob's model. Breakouts from the 200 day MA necessarily lag the top or bottom of the market, if you are looking to hit the exact tops or bottoms. Since Bob's calls have been near dead on the tops and bottoms, I must assume he does not use this as a factor in his model.

Comments?

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 398. Jul 18, 2005 10:54 AM

» allancoleman - Re: Some TA

In response to Some TA posted by bbaddict:

bob says he doesn't use technical analysis when asked that question on his program . BUT that answer is difficult to believe when you look at a chart of his past buy & sell signals in the market .

my personal belief , not supported by personal performance but by observation , is technical analysis works UNTIL it doesn't work . then it's a random walk down wall street . but it is fun to study technical analysis and i really appreciate some of the colorful chartwork i often see here on suite101 . sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words and a technical analysis chart is that picture .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 399. Jul 18, 2005 12:20 PM

» eccm - Re: Some TA

In response to Some TA posted by bbaddict:

bbaddict:

I use the 200 DMA as my main orientation. I ran back tests to 1929 once and 4% was a good +/- noise reducer. But someone posted here (probably on another thread though) about using the directional change on the 200 DMA line, and Kirk mentions the Golden Cross sometimes. ie. The 50 DMA crossing the 200DMA. They are all about the same.

In fact I once ran, an admittedly non-scientific, back test of the 200 DMA +/- 4% strategy vs the buy/sell point of the DOW Theory, and they were almost the same buy/sell points.

Yes these things only work till they stop working but I think that is way oversimplifying. There is a reason why the 200 DMA is what it is and it's been that way since "Christ was a Corporal" as we used to say in my military days.

Not everybody is willing or even able to adhere to it. And its very manifestation already is incorporating everything everybody else is doing.

As far a Boberino... He obviously uses technical indicators regardless of what HE himself says. That he does NOT use moving averages, ok, that I'll buy. But so what? MAs aren't TA itself, and TA isn't just about MAs.

I have always been curious of the use of technical analysis of the market, but have not used it. The graph above in Kirk's post reminds me of a question... Using the 200 day moving average has always seemed like a good use of TA for the broad market. A breakout above or below can tell you the momentum. Your triggers would have to be x% above or below the MA, else you get caught doing trades in the "noise" near the MA. Anyone here use that, and if so, what are your x%? But my question is about Bob's model. Breakouts from the 200 day MA necessarily lag the top or bottom of the market, if you are looking to hit the exact tops or bottoms. Since Bob's calls have been near dead on the tops and bottoms, I must assume he does not use this as a factor in his model. Comments?

-- posted by eccm

Top 400. Jul 18, 2005 1:00 PM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Some TA

In response to Re: Some TA posted by eccm:

Great post. At first glance, 4% seems a little too high, but I will make a closer analysis.

The Golden Cross does essentially the same thing. It gets you out of the "noise" before you see the trigger.

By the way, I must say that this is a great forum, with intelligent and thoughtful posters. No real name calling, belittling etc. Who/What keeps the spammers and jerks out of here? In most, it isn't long before the "this pink-sheet stock is poised to move!" posts clutter the threads. Or, "You are an idiot, and I am smarter than you!"

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 401. Jul 18, 2005 2:06 PM

» eccm - Re: Re: Re: Some TA

In response to Re: Re: Some TA posted by bbaddict:

Oh bbaddict! The 4% isn't much at all. The way the 200DMA meanders, especially if you're using the simple MA you'll blow off a LOT of potential gains measured from the absolute bottom. But Of course your trading costs are practically 0% and while you'll eat some losses the big drops are guarunteed to be avoided. (except those Force Majeur things like Oct 1987.)

The "line direction" method and 50/200 DMA cross will get you in and out sometimes in excess of the 4%.

Kirk's post is a good example of how -- even tho these things only work till they stop working, we can excpect them to keep working.-- 200 DMA... Shorter MA's.... MACD.... Monthly... weekly... Sell in May... volume...momentum... There's too many moving parts and too many people using too many varied "systems" to suddenly cause any one of them to simply evaporate without anybody knowing why.

An example of a possible red flag.. what if they did away with the income tax...? Or closed all those loopholes like MSAs, IRAs 401Ks... That might very well affect Sy Harding's model because he thinks the seasonality is affected by these calendar triggered events and their financial implications. But until something hardcore like that happens there is really no reason to think these things willl change.

In fact, I think it is an axiom among statisticians that usually, the best forcaster of how something is likely to work out in the future is to simply look at how it worked out in the past. None of that red socks and blue socks in a drawer with the lights turned out

Great post. At first glance, 4% seems a little too high, but I will make a closer analysis.

The Golden Cross does essentially the same thing. It gets you out of the "noise" before you see the trigger.

-- posted by eccm

Top 402. Jul 18, 2005 2:25 PM

» eccm - Re: Re: Re: Some TA

In response to Re: Re: Some TA posted by bbaddict:

Two more things:

1) I don't actually use the 200 DMA. I like to look at the 10/40 week MAs, thus combing out even more noise

I just took a quick look at Kirks monthly MACD chart. It really looks like there is hardly a dimes worth of difference between the trigger points associated with that Monthly MACD and the trigger points of the 50/200 DMA, 10/40 week MA. I'll bet the Line-direction filter is just as close but didn't calculate exact turn points.

There was a "whipsaw" false sell signal using weekly and daily crossovers, and the 4% rule back in the Aug-Nov 2004 time frame but I don't think that would cause any real problem with a long term strategy based on those signals

-- posted by eccm