Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

» allancoleman - Re: What's behind Bob's bullishness? Where does he stand?

In response to What's behind Bob's bullishness? Where does he stand? posted by alphacd:

alphacd ,

if you've listened very much to bob's show , you'd know that he has never been much of a " sector " player and has always been a fan of the TOTAL stock market or Wilshire 5000 .

bob's bullishness on the market hasn't faltered since his buy signal of march of 2003 and hasn't been based on a " trust me " marketing strategy , but on projected earnings on his tracking index , the S & P 500 . and this reporting period , along with others in the recent past , has supported that view .

so far bob's bullishness has been correct as the S & P 500 closed at four year highs today . and , i'm sure , some of your other mentioned sectors have done better . ? ?

as of last summer bob issued a " buy " signal at S & P 1100 and a buy signal this year of 1160 in that same index and , so far , those folks who bought bob's " rational arguement " at those levels are ahead year to date .

-- posted by allancoleman

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions

» Moe_Berg - Higher Oil means more funds to terrists intent on killing us!

In response to Higher Oil is Like A Tax, it slows Growth posted by Kirk:

Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran - all oil producing nations that fund terrorism and shield terrorists seeking to destroy Western Civilization. Knowing this, the instictive reaction would be to bomb them into the stone age. But the cost of taking the oil production of these countries out would mean signifcantly less oil supply on the world market leading to much higher oil prices which would benefit remaining oil producing nations, including potential future enemies such s China and Russia. In his book "Secrets of the Kingdom, investigative reporter Gerald Posner reports that the Saudi Royal Family has blackmailed the U.S. claiming they will explode their oil production fields with radiation bombs if the U.S. allows their government to fall. That would take 1/3 of the global supply of oil off the market for 200-300 years.

We live in a complicated and dangerous world which makes the tax issues you mention seem miniscule!

-- posted by Moe_Berg

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions

» oldtown4 - Re: Rally % vs Duration

In response to Rally % vs Duration posted by Kirk:

In response to "how long will this rally last" his current favorite retort is (paraphrasing) "we will change when our indicators tell us."

But on the serious side, I listened to a large part of Sat and Sundays shows and heard nothing that would indicate his specific thoughts about the length of this rally......if anyone heard differently, pls fill us in. He sounded very positive on the markets (and upbeat in general) and I get the impression he is seeing a continuing rally at least for the near future....maybe thru the rest of 2005? When asked on Sunday if the market would hit 11,000 by year end he said it didnt really matter.......and went on with some explanation that I missed. So there was no timeframe given here either.

He typically gives us guidance well in advance when he starts looking at a sell signal.

Can anyone comment on what the Yuan revalue may mean to the markets? Evidently it is happening in August.

-- posted by oldtown4

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions

» eccm - Re: Re: Rally % vs Duration

In response to Re: Rally % vs Duration posted by oldtown4:

This Bull cycle can stay for quite some time but overall it can't go much higher. The big money has already been made

I'd like to know what he thinks about the nominal bottom of the next bear cycle

-- posted by eccm

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions

» JIMMY62 - Re: Re: Re: Rally % vs Duration

In response to Re: Re: Rally % vs Duration posted by eccm:

I'd like to know what he thinks about the nominal bottom of the next bear cycle

Bob believes that will occur during 2006.

-- posted by JIMMY62

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions

» allancoleman - Re: Rally % vs Duration

In response to Re: Re: Rally % vs Duration posted by eccm:

eccm ,

i definitely disagree with JIMMY62 . to my knowledge , bob hasn't mentioned a " bottom of the next bear market cycle " . and listening , subscribing , and knowing bob , he probably wouldn't ever stick his neck out and make such a statement . and bob is so bullish now on the rest of this year ( 2005 ) and has projected earnings for 2006 , i can't imagine him pulling the plug by 2006 . possible mid to late 2006 , but certanly not early 2006 . there is too much liquidity right now .

in my reading of several books lately on secular markets , if there is a second leg down of this secular bear market , it will test previous lows , if not exceed previous lows . the definition of secular bear markets is lower highs and lower lows . just as a secular bull market is higher lows and higher highs .

just my opinion of course .

-- posted by allancoleman

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions

» bbaddict - Mortgage Cost Calculator

Here is a new calculator that figures the net cost of a mortgage, after taxes:

http://www.PureJazz.com/Mortgage.asp

Bob has been getting many "Should I pay off my mortgage?" calls lately. His standard answer (Your real cost is your rate minus marginal tax bracket minus inflation) is not accurate for many. Especially those with smaller yearly interest payments.

Tax savings varies by age, income, filing status, etc. Many don't even get to write off the interest.

-- posted by bbaddict

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions

» SteveT - Re: Mortgage Cost Calculator

In response to Mortgage Cost Calculator posted by bbaddict:

I think it is difficult for anyone to give great advice on a radio program, given the time allotted. Most calls are about 2 or 3 minutes and we all know bob generally does most of the talking.

I have thought about my mortgage in the terms bob uses but recently am looking at it differently. I have eight years left on a 4.75% fixed. If I let it ride my interest costs over that 8 years will be $7,200. If I pay it off now and save the amount I am paying now in principal for 8 years I’ll have many times that $7,200. I can’t deduct the interest expense any more. I am leaning towards paying it off or at the very least paying additional principal. I have a feeling brinker would say the bank would send a limo to pick me up if they thought I was going to pay off a 4.75% loan early and maybe they will. On the other hand maybe it would be a win win scenario?

-- posted by SteveT

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Mortgage Cost Calculator

In response to Re: Mortgage Cost Calculator posted by SteveT:

Steve,

I don't have enough information to help with that decision, but what does the calculator say to do? That is what it is for.

I think you might not be comparing apples-to-apples, which is easy to do as this gets complex.

You have to consider the principal on both sides of the analysis, in order to properly calculate the time value of money:

Assuming Mortgage balance=$35000, rate=4.75%, time=8yrs, pmt=$439

Scenario 1: You pay $35000 now to pay off your mortgage. You put your $439 per month former payment (this is a payment you made from regular earnings, over and above the income from the investment) into an investment that earns 4.75% after taxes. After 8 years, you have your house paid off and $51148 in your account.

Scenario 2: You keep your mortgage, and put the $35000 into the same investment. {You still make the payment from your reg earnings.}. After 8 years, you have your mortgage paid off and an account worth $51148.

-----------------

Or, if you want to look at it another way, where you don't make the payment out of reg earnings, but out of this $35000:

Scenario 1: You send $35000 to pay off your mortgage. No more payments.

Scenario 2: You invest the $35000 in an account that earns 4.75% after taxes. You take $439 out of this account to make the payment on your mortgage (no more payments, net). After 8 years, this account is zero. Essentially the same thing.

But you must account for principal and interest in both scenarios. I think in your "let it ride" example above, you forgot to account for the earning power of the $35000.

Essentially, the question is: Can you earn more than 4.75% after taxes?

-- posted by bbaddict

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions

» allancoleman - Re: Mortgage Cost Calculator

In response to Re: Re: Re: Mortgage Cost Calculator posted by Kirk:

you are absolutely correct about AMT ( alternative minimum tax ) being a big deal . i , myself , got caught once by it and since then have been very careful staying away from it . if you come under it , you have to do your tax return TWICE . once the normal way and the second time without certain deductions , and you then pay the higher of the two tax return calculations .

it's another of the reasons i switched to tax software cause it makes it easier . doesn't save you from it - just figures it out for ya .

i think , in the end , weither you pay off your home mortgage is simply a matter of personal choice . i hate regular payments of any kind so for me it's simple . no mortgage allows me to sleep better and makes my investment decisions much easier in my retirement .

-- posted by allancoleman

Permalink Print Discussion Join the latest discussions