Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+
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» bbaddict - Re: pete peterson
In response to pete peterson posted by JIMMY62:>"As for the rich, the disparity between rich and poor has never been larger in U.S. history."
What is the answer? Redistribution of wealth is just legalized theft.
In a Capitalist society, the rich do get richer. It is Natural Law. There is no way around that, short of holding him back, or confiscating his earnings and redistributing them.
Common example: Guy goes to work in silicon valley. Cashes in some options. Buys expensive house. House prices go up 30%, so he makes a $million after a few years. Buys a vacation house, and gets a nice stock portfolio. They also appreciate quickly. His riches made him even richer.
Contrast with a guy who gets a low paying job. Never enough money to invest, barely keeps his bills paid. After the same length of time, he is still broke.
Once a person clears the hurdle of getting to "rich", he will get even richer. His disposable income is investable, leading to further wealth. A person who only has enough money to get by will stay where he is.
Again, what is the solution, other than legalized theft?
-- posted by bbaddict
» JIMMY62 - Re: Higher Oil is Like A Tax, it slows Growth
In response to Higher Oil is Like A Tax, it slows Growth posted by Kirk:What I think Brinker really wants for his timing model is slow growth to keep the economy from overheating.
But Bob has limits on how to do it.
During olden days (1960s and and pre-supply side, pre-Laffer curve) the economics text books imagined tax rates changing with the business cycle sort of like what as is now done with interest rates. Deficits accumulated during recessions would be paid off during booms.
Congress and the prez, not being insulated from voters like the Federal Reserve are unable to perform. Sillier arguments such as class warfare bubbling up from the bottom override possibility of top down control to tax rates to help stabilize the economy. Yes, the call for tax cuts during a bust is always loud, but during a boom, the call for tax increases is hard to hear.
NO one that I know would disagree that boom-bust results in a waste of resources and less growth than a smooth upward trend in the economy..
Which would be better way Bob to keep our economy cool? To send more money to the OPEC countries or to send more money to our federal government?
Bob knows the answer to that, we all do.
Yet Bob’s reaction to a tax increase a mild as raising the amount of income subject to SSI tax was gross indignation. Then on Saturday Bob says high oil prices have some good effects.
Being consistent is no fun anyway.
-- posted by JIMMY62
» allancoleman - Re: What's behind Bob's bullishness? Where does he stand?
In response to What's behind Bob's bullishness? Where does he stand? posted by alphacd:alphacd ,
if you've listened very much to bob's show , you'd know that he has never been much of a " sector " player and has always been a fan of the TOTAL stock market or Wilshire 5000 .
bob's bullishness on the market hasn't faltered since his buy signal of march of 2003 and hasn't been based on a " trust me " marketing strategy , but on projected earnings on his tracking index , the S & P 500 . and this reporting period , along with others in the recent past , has supported that view .
so far bob's bullishness has been correct as the S & P 500 closed at four year highs today . and , i'm sure , some of your other mentioned sectors have done better . ? ?
as of last summer bob issued a " buy " signal at S & P 1100 and a buy signal this year of 1160 in that same index and , so far , those folks who bought bob's " rational arguement " at those levels are ahead year to date .
-- posted by allancoleman
» Moe_Berg - Higher Oil means more funds to terrists intent on killing us!
In response to Higher Oil is Like A Tax, it slows Growth posted by Kirk:Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran - all oil producing nations that fund terrorism and shield terrorists seeking to destroy Western Civilization. Knowing this, the instictive reaction would be to bomb them into the stone age. But the cost of taking the oil production of these countries out would mean signifcantly less oil supply on the world market leading to much higher oil prices which would benefit remaining oil producing nations, including potential future enemies such s China and Russia. In his book "Secrets of the Kingdom, investigative reporter Gerald Posner reports that the Saudi Royal Family has blackmailed the U.S. claiming they will explode their oil production fields with radiation bombs if the U.S. allows their government to fall. That would take 1/3 of the global supply of oil off the market for 200-300 years.
We live in a complicated and dangerous world which makes the tax issues you mention seem miniscule!
-- posted by Moe_Berg
» oldtown4 - Re: Rally % vs Duration
In response to Rally % vs Duration posted by Kirk:In response to "how long will this rally last" his current favorite retort is (paraphrasing) "we will change when our indicators tell us."
But on the serious side, I listened to a large part of Sat and Sundays shows and heard nothing that would indicate his specific thoughts about the length of this rally......if anyone heard differently, pls fill us in. He sounded very positive on the markets (and upbeat in general) and I get the impression he is seeing a continuing rally at least for the near future....maybe thru the rest of 2005? When asked on Sunday if the market would hit 11,000 by year end he said it didnt really matter.......and went on with some explanation that I missed. So there was no timeframe given here either.
He typically gives us guidance well in advance when he starts looking at a sell signal.
Can anyone comment on what the Yuan revalue may mean to the markets? Evidently it is happening in August.
-- posted by oldtown4
» eccm - Re: Re: Rally % vs Duration
In response to Re: Rally % vs Duration posted by oldtown4:This Bull cycle can stay for quite some time but overall it can't go much higher. The big money has already been made
I'd like to know what he thinks about the nominal bottom of the next bear cycle
-- posted by eccm
» JIMMY62 - Re: Re: Re: Rally % vs Duration
In response to Re: Re: Rally % vs Duration posted by eccm:
I'd like to know what he thinks about the nominal bottom of the next bear cycle
Bob believes that will occur during 2006.
-- posted by JIMMY62
» allancoleman - Re: Rally % vs Duration
In response to Re: Re: Rally % vs Duration posted by eccm:eccm ,
i definitely disagree with JIMMY62 . to my knowledge , bob hasn't mentioned a " bottom of the next bear market cycle " . and listening , subscribing , and knowing bob , he probably wouldn't ever stick his neck out and make such a statement . and bob is so bullish now on the rest of this year ( 2005 ) and has projected earnings for 2006 , i can't imagine him pulling the plug by 2006 . possible mid to late 2006 , but certanly not early 2006 . there is too much liquidity right now .
in my reading of several books lately on secular markets , if there is a second leg down of this secular bear market , it will test previous lows , if not exceed previous lows . the definition of secular bear markets is lower highs and lower lows . just as a secular bull market is higher lows and higher highs .
just my opinion of course .
-- posted by allancoleman
» bbaddict - Mortgage Cost Calculator
Here is a new calculator that figures the net cost of a mortgage, after taxes:http://www.PureJazz.com/Mortgage.asp
Bob has been getting many "Should I pay off my mortgage?" calls lately. His standard answer (Your real cost is your rate minus marginal tax bracket minus inflation) is not accurate for many. Especially those with smaller yearly interest payments.
Tax savings varies by age, income, filing status, etc. Many don't even get to write off the interest.
-- posted by bbaddict
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