Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 341. Jul 10, 2005 1:24 PM

» allancoleman - Re: I luckily didn't follow his short time QQQ; and market dire

In response to Re: I luckily didn't follow his short time QQQ; and market dire posted by rasputin:

you're correct . along with the 1120 buy signal earlier this spring and the 1100 buy signal last summer . bob , himself , will speak of his buy signals on his program too . and i've noticed that often times the market will get to his buy level more than once over a several month period .

as bob enjoys saying on his radio program , the market got to his buy signal level 25 times last summer and twice this summer . and i expect we'll see that level again this summer before Sy's " favorable season " starts this fall .

as you've said rasputin , no need to look further than here and listening to bob's free radio program .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 342. Jul 10, 2005 5:16 PM

» Moe_Berg - Bob's Pete Peterson Interview

Hearing Brinker-Peterson whine about how the fat cats with low propensity to spend got the brunt of tax benefits under the Bush tax cuts was very misleading in my view.

Tax benefits that fat cats got are spent to the same extent as tax benefits that go to low income cats. Instead of being spent immediately, fat cats initially deposit their tax benefits in the bank. Benks then loan out these deposits to individuals and companies. These individuals and companies spend these loan proceeds and thus stimulate the economy. Also, fat cats spend their tax beneifts on investments. Those on the receiving end of such investments ultimately spend the investment proceeds. It is surporising Brinker-Peterson did not mention this fact in the interview.

With regard to the deficit discussion, I wonder specifically what Brinker-Peterson would cut out of the budget other than the Prescription Drug Plan. That new entitlement was unfortunately promised by both candidates under the pressure of the upcoming election. Repealing it in the current climate would have little or no support for politicians looking to get re-elected in the upcoming mid-term elections. Sad situation! But what about that part of the increased deficit from post-911 war costs, the impact of the 2000-2002 recession, much higher than anticapated fuel costs due to greater than anticipated rising demand from emerging economies of China and India, and the increased cost of homeland security due to the war on terror? Would these two supposedly intelligent individuals cut Medicare, Social Security, Education, defense spending. Just what would they cut and what would the consequences be? How much increased unemployment would their proposed specific solutions to the deficit generate?

Yes, another cream puff interview by liberal Bob pretending to be 'independant". It's so easy for the radio host to grand stand on important issues such as the deficit and terrorist attacks around the world. Probably fooled some of the listeners, but not this one!

-- posted by Moe_Berg

Top 343. Jul 10, 2005 6:43 PM

» bbaddict - MoneyTalk On Demand

I am one of the fools who subscribes to MOD. It is the same argument of photocopying the newsletters. At $4.95 per month, it's about 50 cents per show. I don't have to hunt around for an archive, combine the 3 one-hour archives together, hope the show wasn't preempted for a game, etc.

MoneyTalk On Demand is fantastic! Without commercials, the entire show is 2 hours long. I download and install it on my iPod in about 30 seconds. If I miss something, or am interrupted, I can easily rewind.

Might I also say that the last few weeks with the guests on the show were great. Nice to hear what they had to say.

Now my question to all of you has to do with long term rates. I believe that when these rates start to climb, rising mortgage rates will burst the housing bubble. Most areas will see a flattening of house prices, or a 10-15% reduction. The hardest hit may see a 30+% fallout (overpriced urban condos).

Most have been surprised that LT rates have actually dropped while the Fed has been raising short-term rates. Now, Bill Gross is forecasting falling rates in late 05-06.

How much of the demand at the bond auctions is from the Chinese? If they float the Renminbi, or decide to buy our assets instead of our govt bonds, how high will LT bond rates go?

(If you just got one of those interest-only, no money down, adjustable rate mortgages with a balloon, in a real estate market that has risen 30+% the last few years, think twice before you demand that China float the Yuan. Your getting to critical mass may depend on them.)

Comments?

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 344. Jul 10, 2005 7:02 PM

» allancoleman - Re: MoneyTalk On Demand

In response to MoneyTalk On Demand posted by bbaddict:

thanks for the comment on bob's MoneyTalk on Demand . i pretty much can listen to bob every weekend and subscribe to his newsletter so don't feel the need to further read / listen / track bob's predictions and market discussions .

your comments on long term rates and the Chinese and mortgage rates is interesting , BUT i've been one of those investors caught in the " conumdrum " of waiting for those rates to raise , mortgage rates to raise , and the n.a.v. of GNMA mutual funds to lower so i can add them to my fixed income asset allocation . thank god for my stable value fund in my 401(k) providing me with a alternative while i wait .

your advice on critical mass is good for those who aren't there yet and who are speculating / flipping properties in this real estate boom . but , for those like myself who have already reached critical mass , and are liquidating personally owned real estate obtained years ago at bargin basement prices , it doesn't matter what the chinese do . i'm keeping my eye on selling now while the " mania " and easy money lasts .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 345. Jul 10, 2005 8:07 PM

» Jeremy77 - Re: Re: I luckily didn't follow his short time QQQ; and market

One address, all 10 can access the newsletter site online. Not rocket science. I have plenty of $ but still go to Costco for good deals. When I take trips, I also try to find good deals. Why pay more for the same product? I have my index funds at Fidelity now, cheaper exp. ratio. previously at Vanguard. Discipline has helped me achieve critical mass at a comparatively early age. I didn't learn this in school, mostly from watching my parents. They retired at 65 though. How to manage $ should be taught in high school. I took 3 yrs. of Latin. 3 yrs. of mutual fund investing would have been more beneficial. I would have started investing quite a few yrs. earlier. Luckily I started early enough. (I was just trying to tell someone how he could save some $. He seemed to be upset because he wasn't given all of some certain $ advice for free. My method, about $20. a yr. Not free, but pretty close. (Skipping a few meals at McDonalds).

-- posted by Jeremy77

Top 346. Jul 10, 2005 8:08 PM

» Marteau89 - pete peterson

HOw is it that a supposedly bright fellow can't see the positive growth and increased revenues which have been produced by the Bush tax cuts. These are now a matter of record--and, they need to be made permanent. (tax rates, dividend/cap gains reductions). And, Bob whines about the upper income folks getting the cuts, but he certainly doesnt want to pay any more social security!--Which way do you want it, Bob?

-- posted by Marteau89

Top 347. Jul 10, 2005 8:11 PM

» Marteau89 - More on Peterson--quite a success story

His illustrious career includes a stint as Secretary of Commerce in the Nixon Administration. A side note--his family name is actually Petropolous, his dad having immigrated from Greece, and he was raised in Kearney, Nebraska. He and his bro have contributed lots of $$ to the Univ. of Nebr at Kearney.

-- posted by Marteau89

Top 348. Jul 10, 2005 8:34 PM

» Jeremy77 - Re: pete peterson

I thought Brinker has said that the tax breaks have helped, certainly have helped his portfolios. He thinks they would have done even more if they had been directed more towards the middle class.

-- posted by Jeremy77

Top 349. Jul 11, 2005 4:41 AM

» Moe_Berg - Re: Re: pete peterson

In response to Re: pete peterson posted by Jeremy77:

I would disagree with the contention that tax cuts "...would have done even more if they had been directed more towards the middle class".

Due to the higher propensity to consume, middle class tax benefits would have been spent immediately. Savings and investment of tax benefitis by the fat cats has likely been more effected by the multiplier effect upon deposit in the banking system. As such, those benefits likely went further to create more job growth than any benefits that might have gone to the middle class.

Also with the Bush Tax benefits you need to remember that they were long term and phased in and out gradually so as to give the middle class and lower benefits in the earlier years of the program (ie. 2001-2002 recession) and fat cat benefits in the later years. Remember it all goes away in year 2011 reverting to the prior tax law. The whole scheme in my opinion was designed to put the party out of power in the position of being in favor of tax hikes when future elections come around - a stroke of political genious in my opinion. Well we are out of that recession hole left by the previous administration, and we will likely fall back into it if taxes are hiked any time soon in the current fragile environment. Thant's what Brinker-Peterson's deficit grandstanding is a joke in my opinion.

-- posted by Moe_Berg