Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 211. Apr 24, 2005 2:17 PM

» hairie31 - Lightening Up Portfolio

I saw surprised to hear Brinker telling people who couldn't handle current volitility to lighten up their portfolios.

One caller wanted to sell everything on Monday.

Funny the S & P closed on Friday,
April 22, 2005 at 1,152.12 which is lower than it was 14 months earlier
on February 11, 2004 with the S & P
at 1,157.76.

Why wasn't Brinker telling people
who were getting nervous to lighten up 14 months ago.

You have to read between the lines when Brinker talks. Is he beginning to so a top in the market?

-- posted by hairie31

Top 212. Apr 24, 2005 2:25 PM

» Elaine7 - Re: Re: 2 Callers 4/23 re. 401k vs. IRA Differences

In response to Re: 2 Callers 4/23 re. 401k vs. IRA Differences posted by allancoleman:

Thanks, Allan, very helpful. I will look into those IRS publications. Was just surprised, because for all the years I've heard that you get so many more choices of mutual funds, stocks, etc. by getting out from under your 401k as soon as you leave a company in favor of a Rollover IRA, I'm amazed I've not yet heard the caution that should accompany that, like: "but there are some differences in the age you can begin taking distributions without a penalty if you choose a Rollover IRA".

Thanks for the info.
Elaine

-- posted by Elaine7

Top 213. Apr 24, 2005 4:16 PM

» allancoleman - Re: 2 Callers 4/23 re. 401k vs. IRA Differences

In response to Re: Re: 2 Callers 4/23 re. 401k vs. IRA Differences posted by Elaine7:

no problem Elaine7 . " there are several exceptions to the age 59 1/2 rule " explained in the IRS publication 590 . they are :

1) unreimbursed medical expenses

2) medical insurance

3) disabled

4) beneficiary

5) annunity

" a series of substantially equal payments over your life time " . there are several " IRS - approved distribution methods " that your IRA custodian can walk you through .

6) one - time switch

due to the secular bear that started in 2000 , the IRS allowed a " one time " switch to a different " equal payment " amount because some people were running out of money in their IRA accounts because of their rather large distributions

6) higher education

7) first home

8) receivership distributions

all of these are explained in more detail and are on pages 48 through page 50 in the current ( tax year 2004 ) IRS publication 590

in ALL instances , you must use the IRS regulations as your guide no matter what your custodian says . but , of course , should discuss anything you have in mind with your custodian . usually most are very helpful , ESPECIALLY if you have read publication 590 and are up to date with the correct terminology .

in most instances , the 401(k) distributions can start earlier than IRA distributions , BUT 401(k) regulations can be more restrictive than IRA's because of corporate differences .

i would give you more detail on 401(k)'s but hesitate because i do not have a current copy of publication 560 in my possession here in hawaii . i will correct that when i arrive in alaska next month .

and don't be " amazed " by receiving " no caution " from your custodian . in most cases , you are talking to a employee , usually outsourced , and they don't know the full details of the IRS regulations . which is why , " you are your own best investment advisor " . especially with well read copies of the current IRS regulations in hand . which is why i do all my own retirement and tax planning . it's too important to not know the full details and to trust to someone else . in my opinion anyway .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 214. Apr 24, 2005 4:34 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Lightening Up Portfolio

In response to Lightening Up Portfolio posted by hairie31:

hairie31 ,

in almost all instances bob is best at picking market tops and bottoms and not much else in between . those people who are " fully invested " in the next rally will make more than those who sold out at the first correction . in most instances people who are concerned about " current volitility " should consider their " own " risk tolerance and not those of bob brinker or any other advisor .

i think bob would say it's too soon to see a market " top " from here . but , there are those here , who see " black swans " everywhere and haven't been hurt by these current market corrections .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 215. Apr 27, 2005 8:11 AM

» Bill_Duffy - What do you think?

.
In response to Why Brinker is BULLISH posted by Kirk:

.
Hi Kirk,

I keep looking at Steve Leeb's book, "The Oil Factor". Look at the chart on page 17. Rising oil prices is death to stock valuations. On 3-8-05, XOI, the Amex oil index peaked at 886. Two year earlier, on 3-12-03 it was at 412. This 115% rise in two years is squeezing the economy everywhere.

Furthermore, wages are very weak. The low end is constrained by illegal immigration, and the high end is constrained by outsourcing.

Moreover, the stock charts look weak. Yesterday the QQQQ dropped through a bearish crossover, i.e. 50dma dropped below 200dma with the QQQQ at 35.42

Seems to me we're in Bear territory.

Don't fight the tape!

-- posted by Bill_Duffy

Top 216. Apr 27, 2005 4:26 PM

» permabear - Re: Re: What do you think?

In response to Re: What do you think? posted by Kirk:

The following is a bit dated but still relevant. No one has been more accurate predicting the price of oil in the past two years than T. Boone Pickens:

Published on 21 Oct 2004 by Seattle Times. Archived on 21 Oct 2004.

Boone Pickens doesn't expect drop in oil prices
by Mark Shenk

Analyst fears global oil crisis in three years...

NEW YORK — Crude oil prices are likely to stay near the record $55.33 a barrel reached this week in New York because global supplies of the raw material are peaking, Dallas oil investor Boone Pickens said.

Increased oil exploration and production spurred by record energy prices will fail to give a significant boost to today's global output of about 82 million barrels a day, Pickens said yesterday in an interview in New York. Few, if any, large fields remain to be discovered, making it difficult to counter the declining output of the reservoirs that are already tapped, he said.

"With an economy just leveled off at where we are right now, you're going to continue to build demand, and you're not going to have supply," Pickens said. "The fundamentals are getting progressively more favorable to a higher price."

Pickens predicted a month ago that crude oil was more likely to climb above $60 a barrel than to fall to $40 a barrel. He stuck to that prediction yesterday. "I don't think I'll ever see $35 oil again," he said. In May, when oil was around $40 a barrel and most analysts were forecasting declines, Pickens correctly predicted that oil would climb to $50 a barrel.

Pickens said his energy commodity hedge fund, which almost quadrupled to $575 million through the first three quarters of this year, is betting on rising oil prices now through 2010.

"It may take a while to get to $60," Pickens said. "Fifty dollars came pretty quick after I said it," and the next advance may take longer. "But who knows? Something could happen and you could be at $60 before you can blink an eye."

Oil gained $1.63 to $54.92 yesterday in New York trading. Oil has gained 68 percent this year as supplies have been disrupted by violence in Iraq and Nigeria and a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Pickens, 76, became known in the 1980s for attempted takeovers of Phillips Petroleum, Cities Service and four other publicly traded energy companies. He built Mesa Petroleum into one of the largest independent oil operators before bad bets on natural gas forced him out in 1996.

Past periods of high energy prices have prompted oil companies to step up exploration and production, eventually leading to a glut of oil, Pickens said. That scenario won't happen this time, because the oil is getting harder to find and more expensive to produce.

"I've been involved in it several times, and I don't like it, because we all rush out and spend the money and then we get dusted," Pickens said. This time, "There won't be oversupply."

Pickens has been bullish on energy prices for more than four years. He said he has made more money as a hedge-fund manager than he ever made with Mesa and his takeover attempts.

Pickens also oversees a fund that holds energy company stocks. That fund has begun to "short" the shares of industrial companies that may be hurt by oil prices above $50 a barrel. In a short position, an investor sells borrowed shares hoping to buy them back at a lower price.

Garrett Smith, who helps manage the equity fund, said he is shorting companies in the petrochemical, paper, rubber, mining and glass industries. He declined to name specific companies.

-- posted by permabear

Top 217. Apr 29, 2005 9:29 AM

» oldtown4 - Re: Mark Hulbert Says Brinker Still Bullish

What is the name of the 6th newsletter (with the best record of them all) that he mentions? Maybe we should follow that.

I wonder if Bobbie feels that the market will show huge gains once the increases stop....it appears he does if he is still projecting close to 1300 SP

In response to Mark Hulbert Says Brinker Still Bullish posted by Kirk:

-- posted by oldtown4

Top 218. Apr 29, 2005 5:00 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Mark Hulbert Says Brinker Still Bullish

In response to Re: Mark Hulbert Says Brinker Still Bullish posted by oldtown4:

me thinks if you " follow " anybody , you're in trouble .

Listen to everyone .

Follow no one .

Decide for yourself .

seems to be to do otherwise opens your portfolio to someone else's risk tolerance . ? ? .

as for " huge " gains . i think the market will see bob's buy level of 1120 or below before you see 1300 SP . just my opinion of course .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 219. Apr 30, 2005 5:46 PM

» pauldanielscott - Downloading mp3s of the show

I've been trying to get set up to record the show live and then burn a mp3 CD of the weekly shows to listen what I miss during my commute to following week.

Well as luck would have it I found that you can download the shop in 1 hour mp3 segments within 24 hours of the broadcast from KGO's's archives.

This has proven to be a huge simplification in making weekly CD. Each 1 hr segment in 10MB in mp3 format

I mainly like to listen to the first hour for Bob's comments on the general economy and market.

Don't take this wrong as I like Bob's show a lot and having been a listener for ~20 years I understand that his attitude is often misunderstood - but today I think he was way off base on the Energy consumption comparison with Norway saying they only cobblme 1 bbl oil / person / day and we consume something lbbl 100 bbl/oil/day. Norway is a very small rich country due to the huge oil production plus they have huge hydroelectric power such that they have more electricity than they can consume with domestic consumption - they make a lot of high energy products like aluminium and fertilizer due to the electric surplus and low cost. Anyway not at all a fair comparison US is huge with a large population not nearly as wealthy or blessed with resources in oil or hydroelectric.

-- posted by pauldanielscott