Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 201. Apr 18, 2005 6:13 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Why Brinker is BULLISH

In response to Re: Re: Why Brinker is BULLISH posted by axolotl:

Elaine Garzarelli's market indicators were bullish some weeks ago and not even close to a sell signal.

We are in a secular bear, which may be rearing its ugly head again. In a secular bear, many of the indicators that worked in a secular bull stop working altogether-- or give 'false' signals. And that may also be true for Brinker's market indicators!

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 202. Apr 18, 2005 7:01 PM

» good_as_gold - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget posted by permabear:

hahahahahah it is really funny to listen to all the gold bashers. Just take a moment and think about how much energy and effort it takes to mine metals such as gold and silver. Now picture a printing press running 24/7 printing the funny money better know as dollars.

Now if I was running those printing presses the last thing I would want is for "Joe Six Pack" to wake up one day realize that inflation will soon be out of control and start trading his soon to be worthless dollars in for something of real value. "GOLD/SILVER" Fiat has always failed, the only question is when will the dollar fold? Keep listening to the market "experts" right over that stock market cliff.

-- posted by good_as_gold

Top 203. Apr 18, 2005 7:22 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget posted by good_as_gold:

Guess you rode that Bull market in gold all the way from $800? Well, you're halfway back, not counting inflation.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 204. Apr 18, 2005 7:58 PM

» good_as_gold - I ran those numbers a few years back and decided that land is a

I ran those numbers a few years back and decided that land is a far better asset than gold... Have you checked the prices on what real estate is worth in high quality locations? I'm not talking about an over priced condo in Florida or Las Vegas. I'm talking about a place with a view of the ocean in Southern California or on the San Francisco Penninsula with the planet's best weather... or in a major city like New York or London.

I know a huge bubble when I see one. Sold my home in san diego last year. Some folks never learn.

-- posted by good_as_gold

Top 205. Apr 18, 2005 11:17 PM

» permabear - Re: Re: Gold

In response to Re: Gold posted by Kirk:

"I ran those numbers a few years back and decided that land is a far better asset than gold... Have you checked the prices on what real estate is worth in high quality locations?"

Kirk,

I'm going to have to differ with you here. Real estate is in a total mania right now. Everywhere you look folks are speculating in real estate. On the radio I am constantly hearing ads for mortgage refinancing. Credit is as easy as it has ever been in our lifetimes. People are taking out interest only loans. They are putting 5 percent down. ARM mortgages are becoming more and more in fashion. Record numbers of houses are being bought as investments rather than primary residences. And the mania isn't limited to California, Florida and Vegas. I know people who are buying investment houses in Louisiana and Oklahoma, because they are cheap enough to afford to dabble in. As the old saying goes, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck. What looks like a housing bubble...is a housing bubble. Even Bob Brinker himself has observed the excessive speculation in real estate in his recent radio shows.

Where I agree with you is that I would personally not sell my primary residence just for investment purposes. I sure wouldn't be buying my first house here. But if I'm settled in with a lower price, I'll just ride out the coming storm in the real estate market.

-- posted by permabear

Top 206. Apr 19, 2005 6:38 AM

» good_as_gold - Re: Re: Re: Re: Gold

In response to Re: Re: Re: Gold posted by Kirk:

So… back to my point, gold bugs say to buy gold because we will see high inflation due to cheap money and deficit spending. I sawe'veve already seen inflation reflected in hard assets like real estate, commodities and the huge decline in the dollar.

You have seen nothing yet in terms of inflation. Do you really thing there is any truth to those CPI numbers being put out by the goberment?

take a look at this chart
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/...

I am not pro gold or anti stocks. I believe in being in the right place at the right time.

Gold and silver used to be money for a reason. Nixon took the usa off the gold standard for a reason. To be able to print unlimited amounts of dollars with nothing to back them. When the derivatives time bomb goes off, watch out below.

I will be the first one pilling in on stocks after the crash. You will see me, my screen name will be, "The_stock_king"

-- posted by good_as_gold

Top 207. Apr 19, 2005 6:49 AM

» good_as_gold - So you are a renter now?

Sold my home in san diego last year. Some folks never learn.

So you are a renter now?

please?

Moved to New Mexico, paid cash for the same size home here. With about 400k to spare. Purchsed some land in the country out here.

-- posted by good_as_gold

Top 208. Apr 20, 2005 2:32 PM

» Kirk - Getting Close: S&P500 Day Low = 1,136.15

.
Getting Close :

S&P500 Day Low = 1,136.15 or 7.56% off the peak! This now qualifies as an “official correction” AND it looks like the biggest correction we’ve had since the March 2003 low that was a correction after the market bottomed in October 2002.

Rather than having a fixed target (like 1100 or 1120) for buying cyclical bull runs, I believe great “buying opportunities” are when the markets are under the 200 day moving average (DMA). You can often get more chances to play rallies (which I do if I can) when you use fixed targets and other methods but the best opportunities usually come when we have a hard correction under the 200 DMA since these are pretty rare. We are there now.

Even Jas Jain, one of our resident bears, has covered his shorts as of a few days ago and is playing for a rally.

Only time will tell.

Now if you are really scared of plopping a big chunk of cash into QQQ or Brinker’s model portfolios which contain some QQQ, consider buying a few of the high beta stocks in my newsletter with just a small amount of dollars. I find I don’t like to market time but I do enjoy moving a percent or two of my portfolio into high beta stocks on declines where I hope to take profits when they go up.

Even if you don’t market time or buy individual stocks, my newsletter offers quite a bit of useful information and tables (Discussion of interest rates, The Fed Model, etc.) which many say are worth the price of the subscription on its own. Show your support for my work at Suite101.com and become a subscriber today!

Here is a NASDAQ Chart

Of course, the NASDAQ and QQQQ have higher beta’s than the S&P500 so they have corrected more.

This chart could be indicating the market is finding support at around 1140 which was the old rally highs from 2004

-- posted by Kirk

Top 209. Apr 24, 2005 1:22 PM

» Elaine7 - 2 Callers 4/23 re. 401k vs. IRA Differences

Should've listened more carefully . . . Did anyone catch the 2 callers yesterday who said the rules are different for drawing down against a 401k vs. drawing down from an IRA: They said (check me on this) if you leave your employer with your 401k intact (not rolled over to an IRA) AND you're age 55(?) or older, then you're not limited on amount you can draw down per year. This was contrasted to the Rollover IRA, where you wait till 59 and 1/2 and there are penalties/tax implications of drawing down before that age. One caller was a CPA. Brinker was unaware and couldn't verify. Said IF this were true, then govt. officials will certainly change the rules, as he said there should be no advantage in one vehicle as compared to the other, depending on whether it was rolled over. Anyone get the whole story? (As my understanding may not be complete.)
Elaine

-- posted by Elaine7