Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+
- permabear
- mysterytrader
- arommel88
- permabear
- arommel88
- permabear
- Normxxx
- arommel88
- oldtown4
- mysterytrader
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» permabear - Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget
In response to Re: Re: Lest we forget posted by arommel88:Brinker takes a very conventional view when it comes to his view of longterm interest rates. When asked on the radio about what affects longterm rates, he always refers to inflation and how hot or cold the economy is. But from everything I've read, longterm interest rates can be affected by a lot more than inflation expectations. The bears out there, who admittedly have been wrong to this point, argue that the dollar and foreign investments in our bonds has a lot to do with where interest rates are as well. When 80 percent of worldwide investment is poured into dollar denominated assets, that is what many consider an imbalance. If foreigners ever get spooked by a weakening economy or a further fall in the dollar, they could pull their money out of our bond market creating a huge spike in interest rates, a collapse in the dollar and the end of the party. Brinker just kind of shrugs off these macro economic fears when callers bring them up. So far he's right. But we'll see how things play out as our trade deficit and budget deficit continue to spiral out of control and Americans continue to go on their credit card and home equity line of credit spending sprees with no worries in site.
-- posted by permabear
» mysterytrader - learn to know when an advisor is deviating
The problem with Brinker is/was that he isn't a "swing trader", he's an "investor" and historically he has (tried to) invest and dollar cost average into intermediate to long term trends . He got caught up into a short term "swing trading" recommendation for which he is, experientially, not qualified.A good thing to know is "what your investment advisor's investing/trading style and personality ? And if he/she starts deviating from that ( in this example, all of a sudden Brinker starts recommending QQQ's ), then that should raise red flags.
-- posted by mysterytrader
» arommel88 - Re: learn to know when an advisor is deviating
In response to learn to know when an advisor is deviating posted by mysterytrader:Those 1929 shoe shine boys with stock tips certainly got a bad rap. Those shoes were still freakin shinny in 1930! :-)
-- posted by arommel88
» permabear - Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget
In response to Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget posted by Kirk:"Brinker’s skill set is in helping conservative people get rich the slow, steady way."
Very true, and for the most part (QQQs and a few other exceptions) his advice has been right on. But as you noted, he has missed on some other investments as well (gold, real estate commodities, plus he admitted on the air he never even heard of bank loan funds) and I wonder, just wonder, if he may have missed the boat right now. Brinker is still bullish on both stocks and bonds. Both have been losing value in the past month. As Permabear I am always on the lookout for the next major bear move. I don't know if we are in the middle of one now or just another correction. But if this current move down is in fact a resumption of the secular bear, than Brinker has missed a major call. And in combination with rising interest rates, may be losing money for his followers on both stock and bond mutual funds. Again only time will tell. We could just be seeing a correction and head right back up to 11,000 plus on the DOW. We shall see.
-- posted by permabear
» arommel88 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget
In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget posted by permabear:I think I have heard Bob comment that he is primarily a stock market pundit and does not advise people in speculative real estate or commodities. If Bob is into slow and steady then I agree with him on Gold. I am typically anti-gold as a primary investment vehicle. It really is dead capital though it is a useful defense against bad currencies and a good market gage. See Thomas Mun on the virtues of hording gold.
-- posted by arommel88
» permabear - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget
In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget posted by arommel88:http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day/CBOE...
Brinker has pretty consistently advised listeners to his radio show at least to avoid gold. He repeatedly reminds folks of the poor performance of gold since the peak in the early 1980s, but what he fails to mention is gold's performance in the past five years (see above chart). He has been a little less likely to tell folks to outright sell lately, but he was doing so in the past couple of years when the price was zooming. While gold has corrected some recently, it still appears to be in a longterm uptrend.
-- posted by permabear
» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget
In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget posted by permabear:Right now, gold is simply reflecting the dollar's downtrend; gold is not yet in a genuine uptrend (see the gold/euro index for example, or even the gold/rand index). However, I do expect to see gold on a genuine tear, but probably not until after its current downtrend (adjusted for the dollar's movements), which eventually may take about three years!
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Normxxx
» arommel88 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget
In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget posted by permabear:Yes that is true but trust me, you are gambling against house odds on gold. The gold mega trend will always fail to keep up with other assets classes other than perhaps cash. I would treat gold as a meta cash position because it is quite volatile so it has an odd feel to it because its market based inflation protection Vs a central banks. In 100 years a hoard of gold will be a hoard of gold. The British Empire spent their gold while the Spanish languished with their gold hoard. Also keep in mind gold only has NAV and a typical equity camparison in a large cap is NAV + dividends.
-- posted by arommel88
» oldtown4 - Re: BRINKER -- DRACH
In response to BRINKER -- DRACH posted by RSREXX1:Wow you really have to wonder about Bobbies crystal ball. Who would have dreamed that we would get this close to SP 1120. I am stunned. Do you think he really anticipated this level? I wonder. Should we get ready to buy, with what little money is left?
-- posted by oldtown4
» mysterytrader - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget
In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Lest we forget posted by permabear:We will know in the fullness of time if he missed the boat. YET why hang our hat on just one guy's punditry ( obviously this is a ridiculous notion, but some people do it ). There are others that are/have been accurate. But this is the trick of it all isn't it. So you could/should diversify across the pundit spectrum just as you would stocks or mutual funds. 25% allocation for Brinker, 25% for guy X, 25% for system x and so on... and I've only heard a few in the investment expert media actually say " And don't just listen to me..diversify your sources ! ".
-- posted by mysterytrader
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