Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 141. Mar 17, 2005 11:49 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets posted by Happy_2:

I use STS only for my market assets. Did great in 2000 thru 2002, mostly because I did some shorting as well as use STS. Left a lot of money on the table in 2003 (mostly misssed the summer rally)-- but was still up about 8%. I haven't figured out 2004, but I think I was pretty much flat for the first (Spring) part, was out during the miserable Summer, and got in at the end of October, just as the market took off. But so far, I'm down for this year with the market.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 142. Mar 20, 2005 12:42 AM

» hairie31 - S&P only up 2.75 % in past year

Brinker made a interesting observation on Saturday's program.

He noted the S & P 500 has only risen 2.75 %, since the high of February 11, 2004 (1157.76) to the close on March 18, 2005 (1189.64)

He noted the quick rise from March 11, 2003, some 44.58 % to February 11, 2004. That was only a 11 month period.

(If you took the rise since October 9, 2002, it's was a 49 % rise to
February 11, 2004) then just a 2.75 % rise to the close on March 18, 2005.

Obviously, he must be expecting a further gains or he would have issued a sell signal.

But it really hasn't been worth being in the market the past year.

-- posted by hairie31

Top 143. Mar 20, 2005 11:12 AM

» Normxxx - Re: S&P only up 2.75 % in past year

In response to S&P only up 2.75 % in past year posted by hairie31:

But it really hasn't been worth being in the market the past year.

Unfortunately, only seers can figure that out in advance! I'm still showing a nice profit for the 2004 FALL/2005 SPRING season. And, I was ahead for the corresponding season last year. But obviously if you picked your entry and exit points as BB suggested, you would be right.

However, I am still looking for one last gasp upward which could equal or exceed our old highs; then a market break in anticipation of the recession (which should be a bad one). It looks like the recession will not hit before next year, so we have some time yet. This could be an exceptional Presidential cycle, with the bad year coming during the second or third year, instead of the first year.

But keep one foot out the door; I think the potential for a major financial catastrophe or accident is as high as it's been in my lifetime (and so does Paul Volcker et al).

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 144. Mar 20, 2005 11:43 AM

» allancoleman - Re: Re: S&P only up 2.75 % in past year

In response to Re: S&P only up 2.75 % in past year posted by Normxxx:

I , too , had a excellent return after following Sy Harding's buy signal last fall . and i was actually late getting in on that signal cause i was waiting to verify Bush's election victory before jumping in . made quite a bit in just two months - best year ever last year since i retired in 2000 .

this year , 2005 , started off rough . but i actually pulled ahead after setting a bottom in my personal accounts on january 24th and then pulled enough ahead ( + - $23k ) to get out ( my own sell signal smile Sy calls it " common sense " ) on march 4th .

i'm now sitting in a excellent stable value fund with only + - 9% stock market exposure after having been at + - 80% stock market asset allocation since last fall . ready to pick another buying opportunity in the future .

thanks for introducing me to Sy , Normxxx . figured i made more than enough to pay for all those copies of Sy's book i gave to friends .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 145. Mar 20, 2005 12:18 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: S&P only up 2.75 % in past year

In response to Re: Re: S&P only up 2.75 % in past year posted by allancoleman:

But have you sprung for a subscription yet? Think of Sy as you would Public National Radio-- but he earns you money!

Also, you should think seriously about diversifyin out of U.S. stocks only. How is BB on gold, Emerging Markets, International Funds, REITs, etc?

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 146. Mar 20, 2005 12:48 PM

» allancoleman - Re: S&P only up 2.75 % in past year

In response to Re: Re: Re: S&P only up 2.75 % in past year posted by Normxxx:

you know Normxxx , i haven't sprung for a subscription yet . one of my friends , and maybe more ? , is going to subscribe to Sy . i'm not much on paying annual subscription fees anymore . only subscribe to bob brinker's newsletter cause the wife likes him . i like my life time subscripton to A.A.I.I and would probably pay for other life time subscriptions if they were as reasonable .

bob has almost always had a international asset allocation since i've listened to him , but i don't particularily care for foreign investments . love the good old U.S.A. i guess . my round the world cruise in the Navy going to Viet Nam and return was enough education for me on other countries .

bob has occassionally suggested emerging markets but don't think he has advised there for now . and once again , due to my above expressed feelings , i probably wouldn't feel comfortable there either .

bob hasn't really dealt with REITs as far as i know . my own preference for REIT investing is to buy and own the real thing . be it homes , second homes , rentals , raw property of any kind . i just like looking for , walking on , and generally dealing with the real thing .

and , of course , those who listen to bob on a regular basis know that bob doesn't like gold and i don't either , can't eat it , walk on it , or easily buy things like cars , surf boards , and stuff with it .

just my opinions of course . smile .

-- posted by allancoleman

http://www.smartmoney.com/tradecraft/ind...

Top 147. Mar 20, 2005 2:33 PM

» permabear - Floating rate funds

A caller in the first hour of Sunday's radio show asked Bob's opinion of floating rate funds. He said his broker had gotten him into a couple of these funds. Bob said he wasn't familiar with these "equities" (they were from Pimco and Eaton Vance I believe). The caller described the funds as equity funds when in fact they are funds that invest in senior loans to corporate borrowers and are cushioned against moves in interest rates. Bob went on to recommend DVY, which is a stock dividend fund. The point here is that Bob is not Mr. know everything when it comes to investments. Personally I am a big fan of floating rate or bank loan funds because they will still give you solid income at times that interest rates are rising (like right now).

-- posted by permabear

Top 148. Mar 20, 2005 2:40 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Brinker's International Allocation

In response to Re: Brinker's International Allocation posted by Kirk:

But does he have a listing of current allocations and investments at his site, or does he regularly review them in his newletter?

Else, you could get clobbered if you forget to read one newsletter!

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 149. Mar 20, 2005 5:36 PM

» bob90245 - Re: Timing Applies All Stock Funds?

In response to Re: Re: Re: S&P only up 2.75 % in past year posted by Normxxx:

Normxxx,

I will rephrase your question to what I think you might mean:

Does Brinker issue timing signals as a unit or to each market segment separately? (Let's ignore QQQ-type trades going forward -- Everybody knows he can't do those successfully.)

From my understanding, when Brinker issues a timing signal, it will apply to the portfolios as a whole. So US/Int'l, Large/Small will all be reduced proportionally.

What I think could be an interesting study is to see if Brinker's diversified mutual fund holdings would have performed just as well without timing during the 1/2000 - 3/2003 period. I suspect those investors who had a good chunk of value and a smattering of small and REITs did very well during the bear. Of course, there's no telling what a similarly 'sliced and diced' diversified portfolio would do during the bear next time around. So a "blanket" timing signal takes no chances and assumes all markets will be pulled down during the bear.

-- posted by bob90245