Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 130. Mar 16, 2005 9:47 PM

» gabbai770 - Re: Re: Bob Brinker's Charity Appearance

In response to Re: Bob Brinker's Charity Appearance posted by BrianMcG:

you're grasping at straws Brian - whatever you call it - asset allocation or bear market call - it was a great move - even at 60/40

if Bob can call the top of this cyclical bull he'll go down in the record books

-- posted by gabbai770

Top 131. Mar 17, 2005 4:12 AM

» BrianMcG - Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker's Charity Appearance

In response to Re: Re: Bob Brinker's Charity Appearance posted by gabbai770:

you're grasping at straws Brian - whatever you call it - asset allocation or bear market call - it was a great move - even at 60/40

Whether it was a great call is a matter of opinion--you are entitled to yours. Whether it was a move to cash is a matter of fact--it wasn't. If the call was great, why can't he just be honest about what the call was?

-- posted by BrianMcG

Top 132. Mar 17, 2005 7:42 AM

» bob90245 - Re: "Are you a groupie?" "I am" she replied.

In response to "Are you a groupie?" "I am" she replied. posted by Kirk:

Brinker is a call-in father confessor, who earned his congregation's trust, back in 2000, by advising them to sell at the crest of the stock market rise and get back in at the bottom.

And then the call-in father confessor lost the trust of many in his congregation following the QQQQ debacle.

I'm guessing that there were not many of those folks at the Geary for reporter Steven Winn to interview.

-- posted by bob90245

Where's the 'total' in Vanguard fund?

Top 133. Mar 17, 2005 8:31 AM

» bob90245 - Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets

In response to Re: Re: "Are you a groupie?" "I am" she replied. posted by Kirk:

I bet one of your favorite slice and dice portfolios that had allocation to international as well as small caps beat his overall results by a mile if you include his QQQQ advice IF you rebalanced those portfolios each year to keep them at a target allocation.

For the most recent bear market, you would be correct. Paul Merriman makes the case in his article that you can read here:

However, don't assume that a slice and dice portfolio will save the day in every bear market. The 1973-74 bear market is an example where most every asset class was brought down. Using the data from Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), we can see how their slice and dice portfolio fared going back to 1970.

-- posted by bob90245

Top 134. Mar 17, 2005 10:47 AM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets

In response to Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets posted by bob90245:

STS has also handily beaten BB over the last 7 years (it's done albout 200% better than B&H).

In fact, it's hard to beat STS, if you want maximum return with minimum drawdown. Over the last 40 years, STS has had a maximum seasonal (half year) drawdown of -5.59% in Spring of 1970 vs. -19.48% for Buy & Hold (B&H) in Fall of 1974. In fact, B&H has had no less than 12 seasonal drawdowns greater than -5.59%, for a total of 23 seasonals less than 0% versus only 5 seasonals less than 0% for STS. B&H has several times (6) had back-to-back seasonal drawdowns versus none for STS. B&H has also had as many as 3 seasonal drawdowns in a row three time versus none for STS. And overall, STS has outperformed B&H by about 200% for the 40 years.

Does anyone have a comparable record for BB over that time? Plus which, for BB, you must buy his letter (or at least listen to his program). For STS, you can do the calculations yourself! And, it offers a guaranteed 50% lower volatility.

Think what STS may do combined with S&D!

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 135. Mar 17, 2005 11:34 AM

» bob90245 - Re: Re: Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets

In response to Re: Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets posted by Normxxx:

Actually, Norm, your STS needs a more apples-to-apples comparison. I see that Sy has data back to 1963. As I recall, the tax deferred IRA account started in the 1980's. So prior to that, Sy's data needs to reflect the effect of short-term capital gains taxes (at ordinary tax rates). After all, it's not what you make that counts, it's what you keep.

Now Brinker's data goes back to the 1980's. So except for a brief time around 1987-1990(?), he was holding through the great bull market. Now when Brinker issued his tactical asset allocation call to 40% stocks in Jan 2000, presumably most of those gains would have been taxed at the lower long-term cap gain rates. So the tax bite would not have been so bad.

On the other hand, buy-and-hold would not have had to give up any gains to Uncle Sam. So this would be a plus for that strategy.

Hard to know which of the three strategies above would have given the most returns to investors after you consider taxes. At least with slice and dice, your tax bite should be modest since you're selling only a small part to rebalance. (Although the rebalancing can also be accomplished by adding new money to the lagging asset classes -- thus avoiding the need to sell the winners.)

-- posted by bob90245

Top 136. Mar 17, 2005 12:26 PM

» SteveT - Re: "Are you a groupie?" "I am" she replied.

In response to "Are you a groupie?" "I am" she replied. posted by Kirk:

The only thing I can figure is that brinker is considering spending some big money to buy ads in that paper. What a piece of… fluff journalism!

-- posted by SteveT

Top 137. Mar 17, 2005 1:03 PM

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets

In response to Re: Re: Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets posted by bob90245:

You're right, of course, but I believe that the biggest drawback for the "casual" investor is having to pay close attention to the market at the "critical" points, twice a year. That's a big advantage of S&D; it is far less critical if you miss the rebalancing date (even completely!) But the big disadvantage is having to suffer through those huge drawdowns, come a bear market-- not so neat, especially if you are retired with a relatively short time horizon. Maybe, once you are convinced you are in a secular bull, you can just switch to S&D, then back, if you think you are in a secular bear. (Maybe you could use a cross of the 80 week EMA for that.)

I thought that BB's record early on was much more spotty than B&H? I thought he was doing some in and out in the early '80s? How about the early '90s and around 1995?

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 138. Mar 17, 2005 1:44 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Slice and Dice in Bear Markets posted by Normxxx:

can't comment on what bob did in the 80's . and it wouldn't much matter to me if someone did a study of it anyway cause the ' wall of worry ' the market was climbing then is so much different than now .

i can comment on what bob did in the 90's cause i've been listening to him for much of that time and bob wasn't jumping in and out of the market at that time . bob , at that time , was making " gift horse " buy signals for those who wanted to increase their stock market allocation . and I know there are those who belittle bob's gift horse buys at that time saying that bob was already fully invested so what good did it do anyone . but , that doesn't take into account those who were new to stock market investing and came into large sums of money through other means .

appreciate your introducing me to Sy , Normxxx . i've purchased numerous copies of his book for friends ( most of them here through this site ) and watch Sy often here and on his web site . where i'm continually amazed how much he gives away free almost every week . keep up the excellent work Normxxx . i save and send to others alot of your posts .

-- posted by allancoleman