Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

» Kirk - Inverted Yield Curve?

In response to Bulls over Bulls Plus Bears - Free Chart posted by Normxxx:

jamesj24: With an inverted yield curve, and it is indeed inverted, not flat as Bernake, and now the media is alleging, a recession is inevitable.

Normxxx: I believe the yield on the 3-month bills is still a few basis points below the yield on the 30-year bonds! (But, hey, this time it's different anyway; Greenspan and Bernanke said so.)

This is what Bloomberg is showing:

<img width=490 height=250 src=http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?ty...>

3-Month 4.54%
6-Month 4.68%
2-Year 4.67%
3-Year 4.64%
5-Year 4.56%
10-Year 4.55%
30-Year 4.52%

If I had to guess, I’d say the Bond market is expecting short term rates to go higher in the short term then go lower when the Fed stops raising rates after they figure out it was too late and the economy is slowing.

The trouble is the bond market is not any better and perhaps worse than predicting the economy than the stock market. If you went by the stock market, back in March of 2000 it was saying the next few years would be wonderful and we all know that didn’t turn out to be true!

FWIW, there is an article at the Federal Reserve that says a 0.5% inversion of the yield curve is something like a 25% chance of a recession... project that back to what we have now and the odds are quite low, still, that we go into recession. Slower growth is a given, but a recession is still low in the probability distribution.

-- posted by Kirk

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» pbradford6 - Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish

In response to Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish posted by allancoleman:
i also subscribe to his newsletter and he is also very bullish there too and has lately raised his expected top from " the mid 1300's range , and the door remains open to the possibility that a higher price target may develop going forward .

Allan, to what other investment letters if any do you subscribe?

Thanks,

-- posted by pbradford6

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» allancoleman - Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish

In response to Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish posted by pbradford6:

AAII six at : http://www.aaii.com . i have their lifetime membership and feel it's been more than a bargin . with the 20 or more years i have left as an investor , it'll more than pay for itself . as bob brinker would say , " it's a no brainer " .

-- posted by allancoleman

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» mrs1123 - Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish

In response to Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish posted by alphacd:

That is what I thought but everybody thought I was smoking something.

-- posted by mrs1123

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» 750a - Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish

In response to Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish posted by mrs1123:

This bull is very old by historic standards, we are in the second year of a Presidential cycle, there is an inverted yield curve, and we are quickly approaching March 10, which has served as an inflection point over the past few years. Brinker has been quiet on the radio about his bullishness as well. Me thinks a change is coming very shortly.

-- posted by 750a

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» allancoleman - Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish

In response to Has anyone noticed that Bob is becoming less bullish posted by 750a:

well , mrs1123 , 750a , and alphacd ; i guess we'll all know in the ' fullness of time ' .

-- posted by allancoleman

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» dmete3 - Re-Balance Portfolio Advise

Hi All,
I have a balance of 50/50 tax Defered(410K IRA ROTH IRA) and
regular savings. It is split %62 Stock VTSMX %33 Bonds GNMA and 5%
Cash Reserves. What is the best way to rebalance at this time to 70%
25% mix of stock or even 75/20. Is it better to split up the VTSMX
into smaller Vanguard accounts and lose the low cost maintenance
charges (Admiral Shares). I have seen posting where you can do better
than the VTSMX fund by splitting into 6 of the smaller Vanguard funds
like Small Cap/Growth amd Mid Cap. Does the split of the funds do
better than losing the low maint fees oaf an Admiral fund? Is this the
right time to rebalance when the market is high?
Age 48. Retire 66.5

-- posted by dmete3

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» allancoleman - Re-Balance Portfolio Advise

In response to Re-Balance Portfolio Advise posted by dmete3:

hello dmete3 ,

i'm afarid i'll have to defer your question to others here who are more familar with a blend of various mutual funds as you want . i usually don't spread my investment dollars out like that . not saying your idea is bad . matter of fact , you may very well beat me over the long term . but for my style of KISS ( keep it simple stupid ) investing , where i don't have alot of different investment positions to ' unwind ' when i get ready to make a big asset allocation shift ; i usually am large caps or not at all . just me .

as for timing , if you've got that long left before you retire , i don't think it much matters when you do your asset alloction . heck , you've got 20 years yet before you'll need it . for myself , 6 years into retirement and with probably 20 to 30 years left of distributions to plan for , i have to be more conservative and preserve my capital . i don't have time on my side like you do to make up for a correction or another deep down turn .

-- posted by allancoleman

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» Kirk - New Bob Brinker Free Discussion Forum On New Site

.
Actually, it looks much the same but we have a different URL with "investment" where "www" is on this forum.

Please move the discussion to our NEW Bob Brinker Free Discussion Forum.

Thanks

PS... All posts made here after this one will be deleted since we can't move posts between forums. SO... Please only post at the new forum.

.

-- posted by Kirk

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» Kirk - PLEASE USE NEW FORUM ON NEW SITE

.
We’ve moved!

I copied some of the recent unanswered questions over to the new forum.

Here is the new Suite101 URL to Bookmark:

New Bob Brinker FREE Discussion Forum

New Suite101 Investment Topic, Discussions and Articles

Please use Kirk's Market Thoughts to post articles and Ideas you want me to comment on.

Please no more posts here... they may be deleted.

Thanks

-- posted by Kirk

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