Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 1073. Feb 7, 2006 9:44 AM

» mrs1123 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market?

I agree with your "confusion" on MOABO. I am quite surprised that Bob didn't recognize it as MOABO himself, I think I finally did when I got in the market. With the fear of the dropping market it is difficult to jump back in. But what I am sure Bob must have realized when he told us to buy was just how very very low the market was. I know in my fear I hadn't given thought to when the market would be low enough that it would make sense to jump back in. Luckily for us Bob Brinker did.

Still though at the time of entering the market I felt many many companies were over valued. I still think many are which is why I don't see the Q's having a big run up or a quick end to the bear market.

From a valuation stand point I think many stocks still have too high of a PE ratio so it is my hope that all the money on the sidelines will come into the market and will be a catalyst for a big run up.

-- posted by mrs1123

Top 1074. Feb 7, 2006 10:28 AM

» mrs1123 - Re: MOABO & What Secular Bear Market? To mrs1123

"Thanks for sharing your story." You are welcome. Like they say, I know so much they say I am full of it.

As I read what you said about FOABO I suspect that Bob's call to enter the market on March 11, 2003 was seen by Bob as an opportunity to make a profit and quickly exit the market.

"Of course, that declaration of MOABO was made on November 6, 2005, several years after the event."

If Bob is saying 2 years after the fact that MOABO occured what does he expect us to do? Are we to use a time machine and go back two years and get in the market?

I don't see a problem of Bob telling us to get in the market when he did because as I think about it the only way to know when the bottom was is to watch for a rising market. So missing the bottom by a tiny bit isn't a big problem.

What is a big problem though is being a listener and subscriber and still being left in confusion.

-- posted by mrs1123

Top 1075. Feb 7, 2006 10:35 AM

» mrs1123 - A question about the declaration of MOABO

"Of course, that declaration of MOABO was made on November 6, 2005, several years after the event."

When Bob spoke of MOABO on November 6, 2005 what was the context? Does anybody remember any details? I would love to hear a bit more about it.

-- posted by mrs1123

Top 1076. Feb 7, 2006 12:43 PM

» pete2214 - Re: Re: MOABO & What Secular Bear Market? To mrs1123

In response to Re: MOABO & What Secular Bear Market? To mrs1123 posted by mrs1123:

Well it is obvious that if bob call moabo on march 03 and if falls below that then he can say its not moabo hence 2 years later its a moabo.

-- posted by pete2214

Top 1077. Feb 8, 2006 7:37 AM

» jamesj24 - MOABO MOSHMABO !

Kirk said it correctly when he opined that MOABO was simply a hook to keep his audience tuned in during the long period before he would give a buy signal. In fact, I did not hear him use the term to actual recommend the buy on 3/11/03. He simply said "You want to buy stocks when the prices are low as they now are." No mention of MOABO.

On a related topic, I think the next short term buy level will be 1196-1200, a level to which the S&P 500 no appears to be headed.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 1078. Feb 8, 2006 7:46 AM

» jamesj24 - MOABO MOSHMABO ! - correction

Corrected, my last post should read:

On a related topic, I think the next short term buy level will be 1196-1200, a level to which the S&P 500 NOW appears to be headed.

Looking 6 months out, the likely range I calculate for the S&P 500 is 1233 to 1333. I use these ranges to buy and short options on the index.

I had to post this correction since the error changed the meaning to the opposite of what I intended to say. I think I might start composing my notes in a Word processor to catch mistakes like this. It's sometimes hard to see the text in this little window.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 1079. Feb 8, 2006 8:18 AM

» jamesj24 - Re: Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market?

In response to Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market? posted by mrs1123:

In a way Bob punishes you for not buying his newsletter.:

I think Mrs1123 has hit it right on the head with this statement. During much of the show, Bob is trying to make people feel sorry that they don’t subscribe to his newsletter. This strategy is the reason that I have evolved to enjoy NOT listening to him more than listening to him. I still listen to him on occasion, but as soon as he starts playing his game of giving now-useless past recommendations, and even gloating! about how those who didn’t follow them missed the boat, I turn off the radio. He only irritates with this game. What normal person can enjoy having his nose rubbed into it? Yet, I suppose it gives those who subscribe to the newsletter a sense of justification, and may actually coerce others to sign up.

Given the QQQ, TEQFX, UTEK, debacles and the apparent confusion that occurred after the 3/11/03 buy signal, wherein many of his subscribers were left with only a DCA alternative, I’m not convinced that subscribing is any advantage. Instead of the genius he tries to project himself to be, the show is more like a comedy of errors.

Mrs1123 also makes the interesting statement:

Answer: I didn't trust Bob's call to get back in the market because I didn't trust him after I lost money in the QQQ's's. .:

Right on, Mrs1123. I was in the same situation, but unlike you, who took the initiative later in 2003 to return to a more fully invested position in equities, I never got returned to equities. Apparently you bought back into your mutual funds against Bob’s advice, who was then saying to DCA.

In simple terms, I don’t think Bob’s market timing works on the mass market scale that he practices it. It's a wonder that he has any following at all. People must be very forgiving of Bob, and trusting to continue to follow him despite his comedy of errors.

-- posted by jamesj24

Top 1080. Feb 8, 2006 5:26 PM

» mrs1123 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market?

Wow Jamesj24, you must have been really scared of the market. I sure hope you were in the market last year. It was killer on the upside.

It seemed illogical to me to dollar cost average into the market on Bob Brinker's advice because if he was truly bullish I knew I would be missing out on profit potential and buying at higher levels if I didn't just jump in.

Jamesj24 if you are still out of equities what are you looking for before you jump back in?

-- posted by mrs1123

Top 1081. Feb 8, 2006 6:07 PM

» dukeandduke - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market?

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market? posted by jamesj24:

the reason that I have evolved to enjoy NOT listening to him more than listening to him
_________________________________________________

I used to listen to his show a lot more. The good thing is he has guests on half of the time. I listen to see if he is on and then the opening monologue to see if he switched his market timing model and then I check here after the weekend to see if anything else happens.

He has a good interview every once in a while. The rest of the time he is pimping his newsletter, his increase taxes rant and standard common sense advice.

-- posted by dukeandduke