Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 1053. Feb 4, 2006 11:58 PM

» permabear - Bill Gross and Bartin Biggs

Two issues bugged me as I listened sporadically to the show on Saturday. First Bob's response to the caller who was expressing concerns about predictions Bill Gross made. Yes Gross may have been a bit premature (sarcastically) when he predicted DOW 5000, but Brinker was not very kind when referring to Gross and his reputation. Gross is one of the most respected bond analysts and overall money analysts out there. Also the second point the caller made, Brinker really hit a foul ball on in my opinion. That being that due to the runaway budget and trade deficits, interest rates can rise substantially and the economy can tank. Brinker suggested that it was impossible for interest rates to rise at the same time that the economy tanks. That may be true under normal circumstances. But with the U.S. running massive bugget deficits, everything changes. A weakening economy can lead to an escalation of budget deficits, leading to upward pressure on interest rates to keep attracting the foreign capital that has basically been bandaging this economy together for the past five years. If foreigners, or other entities (hedge funds) ever start buying fewer bonds, due to concerns about a falling dollar or a weakening economy, that could put further upward pressure on interest rates as the Fed may be forced to raise rates to keep attracting capital into the bond market. This is the type of mushrooming scenario that many bears such as myself are worried about. It all comes back to very irresponsible fiscal policy. All it could take is some shock or crisis to the economic system and the fragility of our present economic system could start melting away.

The second thing that bugged me was Bob's banter with Barton Briggs over the deficit. To his praise Brinker raised the concern that the supply siders had it wrong. The deficit was proof that taxes cannot be left this low and still pay for all of the demands government had going forward. Briggs responded that he, himself, was a supply sider and supported lower taxes. Brinker was silent at the response, but brought the issue up a second time in a later segment. At this point Briggs said that he disagreed with Brinker about low tax rates for the rich, but felt that the inheritance tax was necessary. This is ironic because Brinker has come out very strongly against the inheritance tax over the course of the past two years.

So in my opinion while Brinker was right in critiquing the supply siders and tax cuts for the richest Americans, he has been dead wrong about the inheritance tax. Both higher tax rates and the inheritance tax are needed going forward to keep the budget under control with the huge baby boom demographic challenges ahead.

-- posted by permabear

Top 1054. Feb 5, 2006 12:23 AM

» permabear - Posting charts

Kirk,

Someone asked above how to post charts on these message boards. Would you mind giving a short primer on how to do such things?

-- posted by permabear

Top 1055. Feb 5, 2006 1:11 AM

» hickfish - Re: Bill Gross and Bartin Biggs

In response to Bill Gross and Bartin Biggs posted by permabear:

Unless of course, Congress would ever have big enough round ones to cut overall spending, especially the pork barrel variety, and on other useless crap they spend our hard earned dollars on. Taking more from the hard working creates disincentive -- period.

-- posted by hickfish

Top 1056. Feb 5, 2006 6:19 AM

» gadget767 - Brinker show gone?

I guess I will have to rely on you guys to learn what is going on with "daBrink", as his show seems to have vanished here. Both last weekend and this, instead of Moneytalk, the local radio station where I listened to Brinker has been carrying the Jim Cramer radio show.

(I know this sounds like a joke, but it's not.)

-- posted by gadget767

Top 1057. Feb 5, 2006 7:58 AM

» pete2214 - Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker and Suite101

In response to Re: Re: Bob Brinker and Suite101 posted by David_Korn:

I feel bobs presence here. He does read this site.

-- posted by pete2214

Top 1058. Feb 5, 2006 8:10 AM

» allancoleman - Re: Bob Brinker and Suite101

In response to Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker and Suite101 posted by pete2214:

. smile . does bob's ' presence ' speak to you too . just curious .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 1059. Feb 5, 2006 8:21 AM

» permabear - Re: Re: Posting charts

In response to Re: Posting charts posted by Kirk:

Posting HTML by members here is NOT allowed except for bolding and italics unless I’ve given them special permission and instructions.

I understand. I thought I was missing something not being able to post charts while seeing you and a few others post them.

-- posted by permabear

Top 1060. Feb 5, 2006 4:45 PM

» iamacamera - Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market?

In response to Re: What Secular Bear Market? posted by Kirk:

Q1: Has anyone read the latest Marketimer?

Q2: Does it sound like Bob Brinker read my post "What Secular Bear Market? and is now "hedging" in his latest Marketimer?

My question didn't get many replies so I'll ask it again now:

Q3: "How many of Bob’s listeners did not return to fully invested in 2003 because they were not confident in his ability to call “counter trend rallies in secular bear markets?”

1 A pal read it to me.
2 I detected no hedging. He is bullish. 5% is his minimum target.
3 As i wrote before, I was spooked enough to hold back maybe 20% of the $ earmarked for equities. the worst miss was putting only ½ my gambling $ into RYVYX.

I don't care about Oct 2002 - My profits in this bull market alone are more than the average person accumulates in a life time. I'm not sure what your point is, except to prove B is exagerating yet again.

BTW B is not predicting that the market will go all the way back to 800. He points out that previous bear markets have bottomed way before cyclical bulls have occurred. It seems they have ratcheted up making higher lows and highs until it finally passes the high of the previous secular bull. I probably haven't explained this very well - whatever.

-- posted by iamacamera

Top 1061. Feb 5, 2006 6:00 PM

» dukeandduke - Re: Re: Bill Gross and Bartin Biggs

In response to Re: Bill Gross and Bartin Biggs posted by hickfish:

Wrong - they need to cut the welfare entitlements which account for 5/6ths of spending.

FDR, LBJ and now Bush with the RX program have set up a bankrupt America. Health care needs to be rationed and saving needs to be rewarded, not punished.

They have a few years to reverse this but I have no confidence in Congress or this or the next president from either party.

-- posted by dukeandduke