Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 1050. Feb 4, 2006 7:06 PM

» Sam78 - Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market?...3 year old Cyclical Bull?

Honeyoneohone, I hope I spelled that right...I was not 100% in cash when Bob made the call in March of 2003. I was just acknowleging that since that call the market has gone from S&P 500 trading at 800 or so, to 1200...a 50% rise off the bottom.

So with that said, if I'm Bob Brinker, why not just take your profit and stand pat intstead of going for just another 5% after you've already made the absolute perfect call back in 2003 and made 50% on it?

-- posted by Sam78

Top 1051. Feb 4, 2006 7:41 PM

» honeyoneohone - : What Secular Bear Market?...3 year old Cyclical Bull

In response to Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market?...3 year old Cyclical Bull? posted by Sam78:

.
Thank you for clearing that up for me, Sam78. (You spelled my name just fine.) smile

Perhaps since you were not 100% in cash in March 2003, it was because you were following Bob Brinker's recommendations very closely.

The most Brinker ever took out of his equity-allocation was 65%; and he then recommended returning up to 50% of that cash into his QQQQ trade in October 2000--which was a disaster for many of his subscribers.

In spite of this, he likes to tout the fact that the S&P 500 is "up 50%" which very likely gives a lot of radio listeners false impressions.

Brinker is very bullish right now and I'm sure expects the market to rise more than another 5%.

MOF: It appears like he may be having second thoughts about his whole cyclical/secular market theory.

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 1052. Feb 4, 2006 7:52 PM

» JIMMY62 - Re: Re: Bob Brinker and Suite101

In response to Re: Bob Brinker and Suite101 posted by allancoleman:

I know for fact that Bob Brinker has read this site in past years.

-- posted by JIMMY62

Top 1053. Feb 4, 2006 11:58 PM

» permabear - Bill Gross and Bartin Biggs

Two issues bugged me as I listened sporadically to the show on Saturday. First Bob's response to the caller who was expressing concerns about predictions Bill Gross made. Yes Gross may have been a bit premature (sarcastically) when he predicted DOW 5000, but Brinker was not very kind when referring to Gross and his reputation. Gross is one of the most respected bond analysts and overall money analysts out there. Also the second point the caller made, Brinker really hit a foul ball on in my opinion. That being that due to the runaway budget and trade deficits, interest rates can rise substantially and the economy can tank. Brinker suggested that it was impossible for interest rates to rise at the same time that the economy tanks. That may be true under normal circumstances. But with the U.S. running massive bugget deficits, everything changes. A weakening economy can lead to an escalation of budget deficits, leading to upward pressure on interest rates to keep attracting the foreign capital that has basically been bandaging this economy together for the past five years. If foreigners, or other entities (hedge funds) ever start buying fewer bonds, due to concerns about a falling dollar or a weakening economy, that could put further upward pressure on interest rates as the Fed may be forced to raise rates to keep attracting capital into the bond market. This is the type of mushrooming scenario that many bears such as myself are worried about. It all comes back to very irresponsible fiscal policy. All it could take is some shock or crisis to the economic system and the fragility of our present economic system could start melting away.

The second thing that bugged me was Bob's banter with Barton Briggs over the deficit. To his praise Brinker raised the concern that the supply siders had it wrong. The deficit was proof that taxes cannot be left this low and still pay for all of the demands government had going forward. Briggs responded that he, himself, was a supply sider and supported lower taxes. Brinker was silent at the response, but brought the issue up a second time in a later segment. At this point Briggs said that he disagreed with Brinker about low tax rates for the rich, but felt that the inheritance tax was necessary. This is ironic because Brinker has come out very strongly against the inheritance tax over the course of the past two years.

So in my opinion while Brinker was right in critiquing the supply siders and tax cuts for the richest Americans, he has been dead wrong about the inheritance tax. Both higher tax rates and the inheritance tax are needed going forward to keep the budget under control with the huge baby boom demographic challenges ahead.

-- posted by permabear

Top 1054. Feb 5, 2006 12:23 AM

» permabear - Posting charts

Kirk,

Someone asked above how to post charts on these message boards. Would you mind giving a short primer on how to do such things?

-- posted by permabear

Top 1055. Feb 5, 2006 1:11 AM

» hickfish - Re: Bill Gross and Bartin Biggs

In response to Bill Gross and Bartin Biggs posted by permabear:

Unless of course, Congress would ever have big enough round ones to cut overall spending, especially the pork barrel variety, and on other useless crap they spend our hard earned dollars on. Taking more from the hard working creates disincentive -- period.

-- posted by hickfish

Top 1056. Feb 5, 2006 6:19 AM

» gadget767 - Brinker show gone?

I guess I will have to rely on you guys to learn what is going on with "daBrink", as his show seems to have vanished here. Both last weekend and this, instead of Moneytalk, the local radio station where I listened to Brinker has been carrying the Jim Cramer radio show.

(I know this sounds like a joke, but it's not.)

-- posted by gadget767