Ed Hyman - ISI - International Stragegy & Investment Chairman
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.From http://www.isigrp.com/mar2004a/edh.html
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - 9/24/04 Ed Hyman on Wall Street Week
.As for Oil’s effect on the economy, Ed Hyman was on Louis Rukeyser’s show last Friday (9/24/04). Ed said he predicts
- 2% growth with $55 oil,
- 3% growth with $45 oil and
- 4% growth with $35 oil
“Oil is about the only thing I’ve been looking at as a variable.”
Right now he is assuming $45 oil.
“X factor on Oil” is the emerging economies growing at 13% rate that are about $7T in total which is almost as big as the US economy. He listed these as China, Brazil, Russia and the countries that surround them. He says these are holding the price of oil up and he assumes that the price will be $45 going forward.
On rates, he expects rates to go lower. With “only 3% growth, there will be very low inflation” of 1 to 2%.
Ed expects people to start to worry about deflation again in the next 12 months.
BTW, Ed thinks “housing will be the next NASDAQ” and it is “early in a bull market that will become a bubble.” This seems to agree with your Leading Housing Index which is still quite strong.
Says economy feels weak since we are “barely out of a recession.” We are in an area much like 1993 and 1994.
Thinks the market has “the best chance of a strong rally” between now and the end of the year then 2005 will be flat or at least very boring. He is basing some of this on the presidential election year cycle. He says the first year of the cycle, 2005, is usually the worst.
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-- posted by Kirk
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