Wrapup

http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html

Top 45. Mar 24, 2005 3:28 PM

» SteveT - Yahoo wrap up 3-24-05

Latest Updates

Close Dow -13.15 at 10442.87, S&P -1.11 at 1171.42, Nasdaq +0.84 at 1991.06: The indices opened higher, amid upbeat corporate news and waning inflation fears, and traded in positive territory most of the day until pre-holiday uncertainty prompted some late-day profit taking... As volumes tailed off during the last half hour of trading, both the Dow and the S&P edged below the flat line, as the latter failed to celebrate its five-year, all-time high (1527.46) anniversary with an uptick... Increased earnings guidance from GE and NOC provided an early floor of support for equities that hinted at better than expected profits in a rising interest rate environment...

General Electric (GE 35.73 +0.23) raised Q1 EPS guidance to $0.37-0.38 while Northrop Grumman (NOC 53.31 +0.53) raised FY05 guidance and boosted its quarterly dividend 13%... But GE had the largest impact on overall market sentiment as a 0.7% rise in its share price subsequently helped it reclaim the lead from ExxonMobil (XOM 59.00 -1.09) as the world's largest company by market cap... Meanwhile, there were a couple of economic reports that also played a role underpinning a positive tone that helped virtually every sector finish to the upside...

But while headline reads on the reports initially appeared disappointing, they were not inadequate in a way that altered economic perceptions... Feb durable orders grew a less than expected 0.3% (consensus +0.8%), following a revised 1.1% decline in January, and fell 0.2% excluding the volatile transportation component, still indicative of strong underlying trends but also showing a modest slowdown in business spending and economic growth...

Also easing inflationary pressures was an unexpected 3K rise in weekly jobless claims to 324K (consensus 315K), which lifted the 4-week moving average to nearly 322K (from 318K last week) but to a level that is still consistent with non-farm payroll gains of 200K or more... Crude oil futures ($54.84/bbl +$1.03), while swapping stages of influence with bond yields over the last few weeks, arguably had a minimal impact on the market throughout most of the day as eyes remained fixated on whether or not Treasurys would move aggressively in either direction during a shortened trading session (bond market closed at 1:00 ET)... But when the 10-year note closed down 1 tick to yield 4.58%, investors had nowhere else to turn but to commodities...

Oil prices opened higher following an explosion at one of BP PLC's (BP 61.82 -0.19) largest refineries but was under modest pressure throughout the session after natural gas inventories fell less than expected... However, gasoline futures still hovered near record levels, as the explosion at BP's facility heightened concerns about available supplies heading into the peak summer driving season... Energy, despite a 1.9% surge in oil prices still closed lower, while Airline (-1.7%) took it on the chin amid higher oil and renewed bankruptcy worries at Delta Air Lines (DAL 4.07 -0.13) due to rising fuel costs...

Homebuilding (+0.9%), however, was strong all day, getting an additional boost after Feb new home sales climbed to their second highest level, surging ever 9.4% to a 1.226 mln annual rate (consensus 1.150 mln)... Other interest-rate sensitive areas, like Utility (+1.2%) and REITs (+0.3%) also traded higher while Financial (+0.4%) faltered into the close... Technology was relatively strong across the board, with particular strength in Internet amid Yahoo's (YHOO 31.41 +0.54) planned $3 bln buyback, while Transportation and Materials posted modest gains...

Consumer Discretionary also finished slightly higher, but gains were minimized by a sell off in shares of Sears (S 50.04 -6.76), which was acquired by Kmart (KMRT 132.52 +7.69)... Separately, the dollar strengthened against the euro (1.2945) for the sixth consecutive session - its longest winning streak in more than a year - amid the possibility of more aggressive Fed tightening and found additional support against the yen (106.31) following a government report that showed Japanese manufacturers grew more pessimistic in Q1...DJTA +0.3, DJUA +1.5, DOT -0.4, Nasdaq 100 -0.1, Russell 2000 +0.5, SOX +0.3, S&P Midcap 400 +0.2, XOI -0.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 1985/1320, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1633/1413

-- posted by SteveT

Top 46. Apr 14, 2005 2:02 PM

» Normxxx - 4/14/05: Wall Street slumps

Wall Street slumps amid economic fears
Dow drops 125, finishing at lowest level since November

By The Associated Press | 14 April 2005

NEW YORK - Stocks extended their recent losing streak Thursday, dragging the Dow Jones industrial average to its lowest level since November, as a cautious forecast from Apple Computer Inc. unsettled investors, who are growing uneasy about the economy despite signs of continued improvement in the labor market.

The Dow Jones industrial average sank to a five-month low, reflecting the market’s anxiety about interest rates and the economy. Following a disappointing retail sales report for March, investors seemed intent on focusing on negative news, but with earnings season just barely under way, some analysts said it was too soon to assume the worst.

“We don’t think any kind of concrete opinion about earnings can be formed yet because we’re still in the early stages,” said Brian G. Belski, market strategist at Piper Jaffray. “We are in defensive, reactionary times, which longer term, have traditionally provided good entry points.”

Crude prices were volatile a day after flirting with a seven-week low. Light, sweet crude for May delivery slipped in early trading, but rebounded as soon as it fell below the $50 mark. Oil futures climbed 91 cents to settle at $51.13 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 125 points, or 1.2 percent, at the close, while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was off 12 points, or 1 percent. The technology-rich Nasdaq composite index droppped 28 points, or 1.4 percent.

All three indexes closed at fresh 2005 lows.

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 10,000 last week, a second straight week of improvement, according to the Labor Department. That brings the four-week moving average, designed to smooth out volatility, to 338,000, a level still seen as signaling improvement in the job market. The weekly data was in line with expectations.

Kerr-McGee Corp. rose 7.5 percent, or $5.53, to $79.50, after the oil and gas company said its board had authorized a tender offer to buy back up to $4 billion of the company’s common stock at a price between $85 and $92 per share. Separately, the company said it reached a settlement with billionaire financier Carl Icahn, certain affiliated funds and Jana Partners LLC, who own 7.5 percent of Kerr-McGee collectively and were seeking election to the company’s board.

Apple declined 9 percent, or $3.65, to $37.39, after the computer maker’s quarterly profits jumped more than sixfold thanks to its iPod music players.

The results soundly beat Wall Street estimates, but Apple remains somewhat cautious about the prospect of sales in the kindergarten through high school market because of state budget shortfalls that have curtailed public school districts’ spending.

Mentor Corp. surged 7.8 percent, or $2.74, to $38.07, after the Food and Drug Administration recommended its silicone-gel breast implants be returned to the market after being virtually banned for 13 years, as long as the company heeds certain conditions.

Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei average shed 0.64 percent. In Europe, France’s CAC-40 declined 0.1 percent, Britain’s FTSE 100 lost 0.3 percent and Germany’s DAX index slipped 0.1 percent.

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 47. Apr 15, 2005 11:26 AM

» Normxxx - U.S. consumer sentiment falters

U.S. consumer sentiment falters
University of Michigan index drops to 18-month low

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch | 15 April 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer sentiment faded in April on higher gasoline prices, a weak labor market and sagging stock prices.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 88.7 in mid-April from 92.6 in March, according to media reports on the proprietary research.

The index has now fallen four months in a row to its lowest reading in 18 months.

Economists were expecting a decline to about 91.3, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

U.S. stock markets were lower, while Treasurys rallied again. The dollar weakened.

Following a raft of data showing weak output and higher prices, financial markets were forecasting that the Federal Open Market Committee would pause in its rate hikes sometime this summer.

The current conditions index slipped to 103.9 from 108.0, the lowest since September.

The expectations index fell to 79.0 from 82.8. It's the lowest reading for expectations since March 2003, when the invasion of Iraq weighed on consumers. The expectations index is one of 10 leading economic indicators used by the Conference Board to compile its forward-looking index.

Retail sales weakened in March as gasoline prices soared, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department. Job growth was tepid during the month as well.

Economists say the consumer attitude surveys don't predict consumer spending very well.

"While this survey has little to no bearing on consumer spending, we believe consumer attitudes will tend to remain 'below par' so long as energy prices remain elevated and labor market improvement remains inadequate with respect to generating higher wage and salary growth," said Mat Johnson, chief economist for ThinkEquity Partners.

With crude oil prices retreating from highs, "my guess is that the consumer will be just fine soon enough and that attitudes will probably return shortly to the range that had prevailed for more than year," said Steve Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital.

In other reports, the economic data showed a stagflationary trend, with higher prices and weaker output.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said its April Empire state index of manufacturing sentiment dropped to 3.1, a two-year low. See full story:
New York factory activity comes to virtual standstill in April

The Labor Department said import prices increased 1.8% in March, a two-year high, as petroleum prices jumped 10.6%. See full story.

Foreign capital flows slowed in February to $84.5 billion from $91.5 billion in January, the Treasury Department said. See full story.

The Federal Reserve said industrial production increased 0.3% in March, matching expectations. See full story.

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

-- posted by Normxxx

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Top 48. Jun 18, 2005 5:07 AM

» SteveT - Stocks Strong, Oil Hits Record

Stocks Strong, Oil Hits Record

By Igor Greenwald
June 17, 2005

STOCKS AND OIL rose in apparent harmony Friday as Wall Street threw spare cash at a variety of increasingly bullish charts.

The July contract for New York's benchmark crude rallied $1.89 to a record of $58.47 a barrel. December oil futures exceeded $60. The closure of U.S. and British consulates in oil-rich Nigeria after a telephoned threat added to jitters about rising global demand and the limited capacity of U.S. refineries.

But share buyers merely used that as an excuse to snap up oil drillers. The Dow chugged 44 points north to 10623, extending its winning streak to a lucky seven. The Nasdaq's one-point stretch pushed it to 2090. The S&P 500 shot up 6 to a three-month high of 1217, vaulting back into the plus column for the year.

Home builders, commodity suppliers and biotechs led the way as metal prices tracked the rise of oil. Copper appreciated 2%, as did the shares of mining machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT1). Airlines, retailers and auto makers sweated the fallout from costly gasoline and jet fuel.

The expiration of option and futures contracts pumped up the morning's heavy trading volume, before the market shifted into cruise control.

Former Tyco International (TYC2) boss L. Dennis Kozlowski and his chief financial officer, Mark H. Swartz, were found guilty of grand larceny, conspiracy and fraud by a jury hearing their retrial.

Al Jazeera broadcast a recording by senior Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri, who took issue with U.S. plans to reform the Middle East.

The dollar slipped as the U.S. current-account deficit hit a record $195 billion for the first quarter, much of it consisting of imported merchandise bought on credit. The current-account gap now stands at 6.4% of the gross domestic product.

Bank of America's (BAC3) billions will be going the other way, zipping to China in a big bet that the country's banking system can be saved from a morass of corruption and bad debt. The U.S. giant will spend $3 billion on a 9% stake in the China Construction Bank, the country's second-largest, with an option to boost its ownership to nearly 20% by 2010. That's the largest foreign investment to date in the Chinese banking sector. Bank of America shares rose less than 1%.

The deal gives BofA access to the Chinese bank's 14,500 branches and its claimed $472 billion in assets, some of which may not consist of sweetheart loans to other state-owned enterprises. Bank of America will bring its risk-management expertise to the party, good news for a Chinese partner that lost one deputy branch manager to a firing squad last year. He'd been accused of supporting eight mistresses with the bank's funds, according to the Associated Press.

Construction back home is booming as well, proved KB Home's (KBH4) 78% profit rise, which topped the consensus estimate by 19%, or 33 cents a share. "Consumer demand in our markets remains vibrant, fueling strong growth," said the boss. Sales jumped 36% in a year's time. KB Home boosted its annual earnings forecast to $9 a share, a buck more than Wall Street was expecting. Its stock sold for less than $9 in May 2000. It rose 7% to more than $77 a share Friday. But the price-earnings ratio remained stuck below 9. The S&P Homebuilding Index soared 4%.

Adobe's (ADBE5) trailing P/E ratio stands at rather loftier 33, which is why the desktop software maker's 37% upside profit gain mattered less than its cautious forward guidance. The low end of third-quarter sales and earnings projections trailed expectations. So while the analysts remained upbeat, the stock dropped 3%.

Trans-Pacific acquisitions are a two-way street according to the South China Morning Post, which reported that China National Offshore could soon challenge Chevron's (CVX6) friendly bid for Unocal (UCL7). The Chinese drilling giant lusts after Unocal's rights to Asian natural-gas reserves, and has reportedly assembled financing for an $18 billion counteroffer, though other sources told Reuters the hostile bid remains in doubt. Chevron has offered $16.4 billion in cash and stock. Unocal shares rose almost 4%, while Chevron added 2%.

Refiner Valero (VLO8) has also been rumored to be a takeover candidate. But the immediate catalyst came from a sharply improved profit outlook, as the company projected quarterly earnings of $3 a share, 55 cents above the consensus estimate. It's benefiting from rising margins as prices of gasoline and heating oil outpace the cost of heavy crude. The stock surged 4%.

Best Buy's (BBY9) recent blowout results offered scant comfort to shareholders of rival Circuit City (CC10), which got discounted 4% after reporting a wider loss.

Consumers surveyed by the University of Michigan have cheered up recently as the stock market's fortunes improved, pushing that sentiment index eight points higher to nearly 95. But the bond market didn't feel left out. The 10-year Treasury yield idled near 4.07%.

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-- posted by SteveT

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Top 49. Jun 30, 2005 1:40 PM

» SteveT - 6-30-05 wrap

Close Dow -99.51 at 10274.97, S&P -8.52 at 1191.33, Nasdaq -11.93 at 2056.96: Stocks closed out Q2 almost exactly as it began - to the downside - as new M&A activity, falling oil prices and lower bond yields failed to offset another 1/4% rate hike from and no indication as to when the Fed will cease... As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% for the ninth consecutive time, maintaining a balanced risk assessment...

However, while leaving the policy statement relatively unchanged at the last few meetings eased fears of more "aggressive" Fed tightening, retaining the "measured" language this time around, when so many were hoping the Fed may provide a clearer picture as to when the tightening may come to an end, waned on sentiment heading into the holiday weekend... Sure, reports that Bank of America (BAC 45.60 -1.31) plans to buy MBNA Corp (KRB 26.14 +5.07) for $35 bln - a deal second in size only to Proctor & Gamble's pending $57 bln bid for Gillette - provided some early optimism... The fact that crude oil prices ($56.50/bbl -$0.72) fell for a third straight day and closed about 6.7% below Monday's record close of $60.54/bbl was also positive...

There was also a late-day rally in the Treasury market that left bonds with their best performance since 2002, as the benchmark 10-year note finished up 11 ticks 3.93% following mixed economic data... May personal income rose just 0.2% (consensus +0.3%), as last month's read of 0.7% was revised lower to +0.6%, while personal spending was unchanged... But within the data, the overall core PCE index held steady at a 1.6% year-over-year rate, suggesting inflation remains well contained...

Initial claims unexpectedly fell 6K to 310K (consensus 325K), leaving the 4-week average (324K) at its lowest level since late April, while the June Chicago PMI fell to 53.6 (consensus 54.0) but reflected expansion and provided some reassurance ahead of tomorrow's national ISM report... But the uncertainty behind the upcoming language in the Fed's policy statement lingered throughout the session, as nine out of ten economic sectors closed lower... Materials was the worst performing sector as investors pared losses in underperforming groups like steel, paper, diversified metals and chemicals as Q2 came to a close...

Technology was weak across the board, as profit-taking in Oracle (ORCL 13.23 -0.33) following yesterday's 5.5% surge, overshadowed upside FY05 earnings guidance from BMC Software (BMC 17.96 +0.59)...Consumer Staples was also under pressure, led by a 2.3% decline in Coca-Cola (KO 41.74 -0.96) and weakness in McCormick (MKC 32.53 -0.77), which beat analysts' forecasts by a penny but guided Q3 and FY05 earnings below consensus... Despite falling bond yields, Financial was also weak, as a 2.8% decline in Bank of America, which is the second most influential component in the sector, weighed heavily...

Utilities, however, was a bright spot for investors seeking income and a safe-haven in falling market, as the Dow Jones Utilities Index closed out Q1 up 7.3%, near four-year highs...DJUA +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1501/1784, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1347/1710

3:30PM : Indices continue to languish near their lows of the session as buying interest remains scarce across the board... Utilities, however, continue to trade near 4-year highs, led by high-yielding utilities like PEG, EXC and CNP - which average dividend yields of 3.18%... Aside from a growing desire to own stocks that also generate income, in a falling market no less, a late-day rally in the Treasury market has also provided some support... Bonds have just closed out their best quarter since 2002, as the benchmark 10-year note finished up 11 ticks 3.93%...DJUA +0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1680/1547, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1465/1530

3:00PM : Major indices continue to weaken as investors express their displeasure with the Fed's restatement of further rate increases at a "measured" pace - providing investors with little relief that we're in the later innings of the Fed's tightening cycle... Exacerbating declines on the Dow has been a failure for the blue chip index to find initial support near 10345... Notable components turning negative within the last 30 minutes include GE, GM, HON, IBM, INTC, MRK and WMT while AXP has relinquished most of its previous 1.0% gain... NYSE Adv/Dec 1612/1599, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1372/1633

2:30PM : Market spikes lower, in sympathy with a quick reversal in Treasurys; but even as bonds almost as quickly regain momentum to the upside, stocks remain under modest pressure... While the policy statement was basically left unchanged, the mere fact that the Fed will continue to raise rates has weakened demand for equities, as the Dow has hit a new session low...

The actual text of the statement reads: "The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Pressures on inflation have stayed elevated, but longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained. The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability."NYSE Adv/Dec 1929/1272, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1615/1355

2:15PM : As expected, the FOMC has raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% and maintains balanced risk assessment, with declaration that it believes policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured...NYSE Adv/Dec 1850/1342, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1569/1393

2:00PM : Stocks get a modest boost as oil prices fall another 1.5% over the last 30 minutes, but buyers still remain a reluctant bunch ahead of the Fed's upcoming decision regarding monetary policy... The FOMC's policy statement, which will be released in roughly 15 minutes, really remains the only unknown with regards to the Fed's action today...

While we at Briefing.com aren't sure what the statement will say, or reflect, we are sure that Fed Chairman Greenspan has a long history of a cautious, steady approach to policy and is not prone to overreact to one piece of data, or even one quarter of data, as is the stock market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1780/1394, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1510/1449

1:30PM : Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Crude oil futures have recently fallen back below $57/bbl ($56.85/bbl -$0.41), but with the FOMC policy statement hitting the wires within the next 45 minutes, the market has failed to take notice... Crude oil prices, which have continued to consolidate since hitting an all-time high of $61/bbl three days ago, are now off more than 6.0% from Monday's closing price...NYSE Adv/Dec 1815/1320, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1470/1454

1:00PM : More of the same for stocks, as the indices continue to fluctuate around the flat line... Meanwhile, with today marking the end of the second quarter, earnings reports have also been on the minds of many an investor... Of the three S&P constituents out with results this morning, two of them are components of the Consumer Staples sector...

McCormick (MKC 32.53 -0.77) beat analysts' forecasts by a penny, but shares have suffered following downside Q3 and FY05 guidance, while ConAgra (CAG 23.17 +0.07), which matched Q4 expectations and even guided a year-over-year decline in Q1 earnings, has found modest buying interest as the stock still trades about 23% off its 52-week highs... NYSE Adv/Dec 1796/1338, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1425/1486

12:30PM : Market still confined to a tight trading range, as both buyers and sellers continue to stick to the sidelines... The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on the NYSE hold a 17 to 13 advantage over decliners while both advancing and declining issues on the Nasdaq remain evenly matched... The ratio of up to down volumes also suggests a mixed bias... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have all found modest support above initial resistance levels of 10345, 1198 and 2062, respectively, but will likely remain range bound until the Fed's decision... NYSE Adv/Dec 1753/1327, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1409/1473

12:00PM : Market trading with a tinge of caution midday as investors weigh upbeat M&A activity against mixed economic data and a rebound in oil ahead of today's FOMC meeting (2:15 ET)... While upcoming comments from the Fed remain investors' primary focus, reports that Bank of America (BAC 45.88 -1.03) has agreed to acquire MBNA Corp (KRB 26.36 +5.29) for $35 bln has helped calm some nerves heading into the Fed's decision on interest rates as sector leadership remains mixed...

The Fed is widely expected to raise the fed funds rate target to 3 1/4% from 3% this afternoon, but investors remain more concerned about the wording of the statement associated with the announcement... With regard to this morning's economic data, May personal income rose just 0.2% (consensus +0.3%), as last month's read of 0.7% was revised lower to +0.6%, while personal spending was unchanged... However, an encouraging read on inflation, as the overall core PCE index held steady at a 1.6% year-over-year rate, has provided some support, suggesting the Fed - which is more concerned about rising prices than slowing growth - may back off their aggressive, steady rate hikes...

Also, initial claims unexpectedly fell 6K to 310K (consensus 325K), leaving the 4-week average (324K) at its lowest level since late April... The June Chicago PMI fell to 53.6 (consensus 54.0); but any level above 50 reflects positive growth and the index is consistent with the 51.5 estimate for tomorrow's national ISM report... Meanwhile, the Utilities sector has paced the way higher amid a CSFB upgrade on Duke Energy (DUK 29.64 +0.36) and falling bond yields... The Treasury market has held onto modest gains in the wake of benign inflation data, as the benchmark 10-year note is up 4 ticks to yield 3.96%...

Another interest-rate sensitive sector catching a bid has been Financial, following BAC's $35 bln bid for KRB; but since BAC is the second most influential component in the sector, a 2.2% decline in BAC shares has minimized sector gains... Energy has also shown relative strength, as crude oil prices ($57.65/bbl +$0.39) continue to recover, while strength in retail - led by upgrades on Home Depot (HD 39.34 +0.54) and Lowes (LOW 58.87 +1.04) - and homebuilding (i.e. PHM, KBH) have helped Consumer Discretionary stay above water...

Industrials have also traded higher, as a 7.3% gain in shares of Boeing (BA 66.14 +4.47) offsets a 3.2% loss in 3M Corp. (MMM 73.61 -2.43)... Boeing has named 3M Co. Chief W. James McNerney as its new CEO... Technology has been mixed, as weakness in networking and disk drive has offset gains in semiconductor and software... The latter group has benefited from BMC Software's (BMC 17.94 +0.57) encouraging Q4 report and a Smith Barney upgrade on Symantec (SYMC 21.93 +0.36)... Materials, however, has been under pressure amid new reports that DuPont's (DD 43.89 -0.74) Teflon carries more serious health risks than the EPA initially indicated...

Health Care has also been weak amid ongoing selling pressure in several large drug and biotech stocks... DJUA +0.8, Nasdaq 100 -0.1, Russell 2000 +0.1, SOX +0.3, S&P Midcap 400 +0.2, XOI +0.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1728/1326, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1397/1428

11:30AM : Sellers show some resolve, paring early gains as oil rebounds to session highs, but the pullback is not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings... Crude oil futures have recently turned positive and are now back over $57/bbl ($57.50/bbl +$0.24), knocking the major averages into negative territory for the first time this morning; however, the indices have shown resilience at current levels as losses remain minimal at best... NYSE Adv/Dec 1665/1339, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1375/1396

11:00AM : Equities continue to run in place just above the flat line, but gains remain limited before the Fed's decision on interest rates... While the Fed remains the focal point today, investors have gotten a surprise boost of confidence amid reports of a multi-billion dollar acquisition... News that Bank of America (BAC 45.81 -1.10) has agreed to acquire MBNA Corp (KRB 26.37 +5.30) for $35 bln - a roughly 31% premium to yesterday's closing price - has improved sentiment heading into this afternoon's FOMC policy statement...

With Providian (PVN 17.65 +0.16) being acquired by Washington Mutual (WM 40.90 +0.27) for $6.5 bln, two of the only independents remaining - Capital One (COF 79.66 +5.77) and Metris Cos. (MXT 14.50 +0.52) - have also surged alongside MBNA... NYSE Adv/Dec 1703/1220, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1440/1264

10:30AM : Major indices continue to hold their own and sport modest gains following more economic data... At the top of the hour, investors sifted through the latest read on regional manufacturing activity, as the June Chicago PMI fell to 53.6 (consensus 54.0)... Despite the small decline, any level above 50 reflects positive growth and, more notably, the index is consistent with the 51.5 estimate for tomorrow's national ISM report... NYSE Adv/Dec 1837/960, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1422/1149

10:00AM : Equities still on the offensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... Financial remains the most influential leader to the upside, getting a huge boost from Bank of America's (BAC 46.03 -0.88) $35 bln bid for MBNA Corp (KRB 26.42 +5.35)... Two other interest-rate sensitive areas also benefiting from falling bond yields include Homebuilding and Utilities, with the latter gaining additional ground following an analyst upgrade on Duke Energy (DUK 29.88 +0.30)...

Technology has also been strong, getting support from broad-based gains in software as well as a rebound in semiconductor and hardware... Software has benefited from BMC Software's (BMC 18.17 +0.80) encouraging Q4 report and a Smith Barney upgrade on Symantec (SYMC 22.10 +0.53)...DJTA +0.5, DJUA +0.4, SOX +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1725/792, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1413/956

9:40AM : Market opens slightly higher as investors embrace new M&A activity, another decline in oil and tame inflation data ahead of upcoming comments from the Fed... Even though May personal income rose just 0.2% (consensus +0.3%), with last month's read of 0.7% being revised lower to +0.6%, and personal spending was unchanged, investors have gotten an encouraging read on inflation, as the overall core PCE index held steady at a 1.6% year-over-year rate...

With rising prices under control, and the Fed's ongoing view of inflation as a greater risk than an economic slowdown, such data may suggest the Fed is reaching the end of its tightening process... Separately, June Chicago PMI (consensus 54.0) will be released at 10:00 ET...

9:16AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Positive bias persists in pre-marketing trading, as expectations remain set for the cash market to open higher... Even with the Fed widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% at 2:15 ET, Bank of America's $35 bln bid for MBNA, falling oil prices and further validation that inflation remains contained have underpinned an upbeat sentiment heading into the open

9:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures indications improve to their best levels of the morning upon further analysis of economic data and a continued decline in oil prices, suggesting stocks may open on a higher note... It appears investors are especially embracing the tame inflation data, as evidenced in the overall PCE price index (which was flat), ahead of the Fed's policy statement, since the central bank currently sees inflation as a greater concern than slowing economic growth

8:35AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Futures trade holds relatively steady following economic data, still indicating a slightly higher open for the indices... May personal income rose 0.2%, slightly below expectations (+0.3%) while last month's read of 0.7% was revised lower to +0.6%; personal spending was unchanged, versus forecasts of a 0.1% rise... More notably, the core PCE deflator rose 0.2% from 0.1% to leave a 1.6% year-over-year rate, suggesting inflation is under control... Initial claims fell 6K to 310K...

Bonds, which were relatively flat ahead of the report, have inched higher following the data, as the 10-yr note is up 3 ticks to yield 3.96%

8:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures market suggesting a slightly higher open for the cash market as investors digest new M&A activity ahead of economic data and the Fed's latest decision on monetary tightening (2:15 ET)... Reports that Bank of America (BAC) plans to buy MBNA Corp. (KRB) for about $35 bln has provided an early floor of support for stocks as the market waits to sift through May personal income (consensus +0.3%), personal spending (consensus +0.1%) and initial claims (consensus 325K) - all of which will be released at 8:30 ET

6:25AM : FTSE...5118.90...+9.80...+0.2%. DAX...4588.65...+5.02...+0.1%.

6:25AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0.

6:25AM : Nikkei...11584.01...+6.57...+0.1%. Hang Seng...14201.06...-76.22...-0.5%.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 50. Oct 20, 2005 1:46 PM

» Normxxx - 10/20/05: Wall Street slumps

[Close] Dow -133.03 at 10281.10, Nasdaq -23.13 at 2068.11, S&P -17.96 at 1177.80

[BRIEFING.COM] Fully erasing yesterday's gains, and then plus some, the indices sank deeper ahead of the close of trade today and exacerbated the fourth quarter's declines. A plummeting pair of shares - Pfizer (PFE 21.93 -2.04) and eBay (EBAY 39.68 -2.33) - set the market's early tone and shoved buyers back to the sidelines. While the drug giant delivered Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations by $0.03 per share, its downside FY05 guidance and withdrawal of full-year 2006 and 2007 forecasts sent shares tumbling nearly 9%. eBay, meanwhile, had reported EPS in-line with estimates lat night, but its Q4 and FY05 outlooks sent the stock reeling. Fixated upon the duo of disappointing guidance, traders again overlooked a solid slate of third quarter reports and failed to find momentum even in another round of sharp energy price pullbacks. While leadership was lackluster over the course of the session - dominated by the market's least-influential Telecommunications sector (-0.6%) - strengthened late-day selling pressure left each of the ten sectors with losses. On account of SBC's (SBC 22.54 +0.13) upside earnings report, the sector did, however, manage to fare best today. The Dow component's rise paired with surging Analog Devices (ADI 35.25 +2.07) shares - due to its increased Q4 guidance announced last night - to limit the Tech sector's (-0.8%) slide, but ultimately could not counter across-the-board declines. Joining SBC in helping to support the blue chip average was Coca-Cola (KO 24.08 +0.28), which stood strong session-long after beating Q3 estimates today. Despite its contribution, the Consumer Staples sector fell 0.8%, as every issue sans Coca-Cola finished in the red. UPS (UPS 72.44 +1.61) extended a respectable upside earnings-related gain to the Industrials sector, but more broad-based pressure left the sector 1.1% lower. A particular weak spot was Southwest Airlines (LUV 15.07 -0.51); after the company reported 91% earnings growth and beat Q3 estimates by $0.03, dissatisfied investors shoved shares over 3.0%. Declining energy prices and an upgrade-induced rise in Home Depot (HD 39.57 +0.31) could not offset eBay's effect upon the Consumer Discretionary sector (-1.2%), and disappointing earnings growth at McDonald's (MCD 32.40 -1.29) only made matters worse. Allstate's (ALL 53.02 -1.38) Q3 disappointment sent insurance issues lower, and helped push the Financials sector to a -1.0% close. An earnings-beat by Rohm & Haas (ROH 42.10 +1.21) helped support Materials (-0.8%), but wide-spread weakness left the sector submerged, while further profit-taking took 2.6% from Utilities today. The Pfizer effect catalyzed Healthcare's (-2.2%) session-long laggard status, and Amgen's (AMGN 74.10 -3.99) guidance-related slide helped to further sink the sector. Paralleling energy prices' path, Energy's 4.1% plummet weighed heaviest on the market. Following a better than expected inventory report from the EIA yesterday, today's report that natural gas supply rose 75 bcf to 3062 bcf, well ahead of the expected 55 bcf rise, exacerbated selling within the sector and further pared its year-to-date gain. With respect the session's economic data, last week's decline in initial claims - to 355K (consensus 365K) versus the prior week's 390K - was largely overlooked, as was Sept. leading indicator data (-0.7% vs. -0.5% consensus) and the Oct. Philadelphia Fed index (17.3 vs. 10.0 consensus). At the same time, the bond market fared better today, but prolonged attention to the flattening yield curve and stirring inflation fears continue to weigh on investors minds and help prevent spirited buying activity in the equity market. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 823/2455. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 947/2039.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 51. Nov 3, 2005 7:24 PM

» Normxxx - Not a Market for Investors

Thursday WrapUp: Not a Market for Investors and a Tough Market for Traders

By Martin Goldberg, FSO | 3 November 2005

To those of you are enjoying this short term rally, congratulations. With an appropriate level of risk to my wealth, so am I. Yes, in some instances I held my nose and bought. The logical turn of events would be for the rally to carry the indices to new 52-week highs. This would be sufficient to put the stock market in positive newspaper headlines and TV news one more time this year. This will serve to keep John Q. Public’s monthly allocation flowing into his 401K stock market mutual fund account blindly, while corporate executives continue to sell out equity stakes in their companies. This is all occurring in the backdrop of all-time trading volumes resulting in a multitude of hedge funds all trying (mostly in vain) to squeeze a few pennies out of stocks moving from hand to hand like a shell game on a New York City sidewalk. In the mean time, many of the public continue to fancy themselves as modern day Rockefellers or Buffetts— savvy investors, all as their hard earned savings plow blindly into their 401K plan and E-Trade accounts. Bou-ya, Jim! Yet the stock market has gone virtually nowhere in almost 2 years.

While my long-term gold and silver and corresponding mining shares are acting well, I’m not mistaking the fact that they are all underperforming Google. I don’t buy the premise for which the market is valuing this internet company at well over $100 billion; but make no mistake, if I felt it could go to $450, with a minimum of risk, I’d be in and cheering like seemingly everyone else.

This trading range stock market is making me weary. With rallies and swoons that have been almot too quick to be tradable, no directional trend has developed. Most market technicians seem to believe that the market will drop to significantly lower levels, but the time in which this will happen is now too far out to be relevant in any practical sense. That is to say, it will be at least three weeks or more into the future. In the same manner, if the market were to rally to new bull market territory, first it would have to move into new high ground, and this too seems unlikely. Yet given the action in the Dow Jones Transportation Index, anything is possible. The people who are bidding up the transports are not doing it for the 0.6% dividend (nor do I think they are anticipating a return to $30 oil).

I will describe two recent examples of successful bearish positions on my part to illustrate the difficult nature of the current market. I sold short Autozone $97.86, and then saw it move to all time highs over $100 on a Smith Barney upgrade. It then swooned on lousy quarterly earnings and a CFO resignation. When the market appeared bullish, I covered at $82.78.

I sold short PF Chang’s China Bistro at $51.25. Their quarterly release included disappointing sales and earnings, a (another) CFO resignation, and a stock drop of over 10% in a day. At that time, I thought I really had a long term position in an overpriced stock in an overpriced market that was finally getting a sniff of reality. This proved to be a mirage as three days later (last Monday), I was stopped out of my PFCB short at 46 in a stock market rally that included practically all stocks— good, bad, ugly, and extremely ugly. In both cases, a strong market required that the short positions be closed out. As I draft this, AZO is at $85, and PFCB at $47— both marginally higher than my cover price and both minus their CFOs. They are both good short sales in my view except for one factor— market conditions. At this moment, taking a bearish position would be lagging Investors Business Daily, and for over a decade, this has been a losing proposition. Even though it has been tough, but not impossible to make money on bearish positions, the environment has been similar for the bulls (except for those bidding up such beloved household favorite stocks as Apple Computer, Sandisk, and Google).

As I’ve stated here before, there is opportunity in the short side of US consumer related stocks, and I believe we are in a bear market now. But we are in the midst of a sharp and tradable rally and the environment is risky. Now it is just a question of entry point which has not come yet except for an opportunistic and short term trade here and there. The long term monthly candlestick chart of the Retail Holders ETF puts it in perspective. There are a few things I would like to point out about this chart.

As you can see from the chart above, the Retail Holders index has had a decisive engulfing pattern (the tall red candlestick) in August of 2005, which reversed the uptrend. Note how the July white candlestick occurred on low volume and was reversed downward on high volume. It was also in August, that the March 2002 highs in the RTH index (~98), also failed. The 98 level also failed in November of 2004. If the retail index were to break above 98, and remain there for over a month, then this may cast doubt on whether we are in a consumer stock bear market. I’ll believe it when I see it, and if I see it, I will believe it.

Now I would like to chop up what I just said so that the situation may be viewed with an open mind. It is relevant to note that none of the momentum indicators referenced in the chart above is of value except for providing a warning that says “watch out.” Even though various indicators point to momentum divergences, momentum is just that— momentum. As with trends, momentum can be reversed; actually momentum is reversed much more easily than trends. I’ve seen too many letter writers, myself included, fall into the trap of making a fundamental point via reference of momentum indicators only without any confirmation in trendline breaks or pattern reversals. If a fundamental point is to be made using charts, you need to come to me with something more than a loss of momentum. Show me a decisively broken trendline— nothing less— then I may believe your fundamental point made with charts. If you ever catch me doing this, write me and I’ll send you a full refund, no questions asked!

So are we in a bear market in consumer related stocks? A look at the long-term Dow Jones Restaurant and Bars index suggests a trading range is the more appropriate term.

Bear market, may be. The charts of many key consumer stocks appear to be damaged, yet they have surged back recently with sharp rallies. And yet, you cannot ignore that the level of technical damage done to these charts cast doubts on the sustainability of the recent rally. Homebuilders serve as an excellent example. Following is a three year weekly chart of Toll Brothers. While the chart appeared to be damaged with a deep and sharp sell off of its high at about 58, the damage was at least temporarily halted at the “4” marked on the chart. It would appear that the likely scenario would be the formation of the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. While this may be plausible, the pattern would not be validated until 36 was decisively taken out to the downside. (Maybe there is no housing bubble after all!) A decisive break of the proposed neckline would do a lot of talking about whether the housing bubble was bursting. But until that happens, there is not a bear market yet.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index serves as an example of how difficult this market can be, and why patterns need to be completed before they may be considered meaningful.

There are some lessons to be learned on this chart. Remember the head-and-shoulders pattern proposed? Having proposed this pattern in a market wrap up (twice), I surely remember it. The proposed pattern could not be validated until the proposed shoulder was broken to the downside. All the bearishness suggested by the plunging neckline was not to be until the neckline was broken. In retrospect, the proposed right shoulder may have been a 3rd Elliot Wave (as indicated by the momentum at the top and extension). Such a formation would have indicated more significant upward movement in wave 5, which did not occur in the proposed head (H), or proposed right shoulder (Sh). Whether this is a proper Elliot Wave count is pretty much immaterial for practical purposes. The important point is that the bearish pattern was not validated by a break of the neckline, and therefore any suggestion that the transports were in trouble would have been (and is) premature.

There will be opportunity to make money with bearish positions in consumer stocks, but not until the market turns decisively bearish. We don’t yet have a support break in PFCB, but once (and if) we do, there will be a profitable intermediate term trade as can be seen in the long-term weekly chart. Forty ($40) is a key support/resistance area for PFCB. Once 40 is broken decisively to the downside, the stock should travel downward to 22 (where there is some support) or lower.

Today’s Market

All major averages were up again today led by the Dow Transportation Index which moved into new high ground and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) which was up about 1.5% today and approached its resistance point of 40. On the individual stock front it appears that the stocks showing the most momentum were up the most today. Sandisk and Apple Computer were up over 3% and GOOG was up over 1.5%. The stock market indices are heading up, and so are long-term interest rates. In the near-term (say, 3 weeks) this is not important. Yet longer term higher interest rates will douse the flames feeding the US consumer frenzy. Before this happens, we will get the convergence of lower oil (assuming the short term trend stays in place), and a stock market that reaches high ground and makes the news. And as it stands, it appears that this will all happen during the Christmas shopping season. It’s one more party for the consumer feeling wealthy, while the real economy continues to languish.

The bond market sits at a critical juncture as shown in the 3-year weekly chart below. While a downtrend has been broken, it is just below where you could call it a decisive break. If the 10-year note rate goes above 4.85%, that would be a multi-year high, and if it reaches 5.0%, this would be a number that would make the news and wake up the average citizen as to the upward trend in interest rates. In previous instances such as April of '04, and early Spring of '05, upward trending rates produced a stock market swoon. This time around, interest rates are heading higher while the stock market rallies. If interest rates head higher still, it will eventually hurt stocks; that is, if history is any indicator. It is notable that 10-year interest rates have continued a trend of higher lows since June of '03, almost 30-months, which is the longest duration since the secular bull market in bond prices began.

The chart below adds a long-term perspective.

Finally, that brings me to gold. After a bold advance, gold is consolidating at about $460 per ounce. If gold approaches $500 an ounce, this will also awaken the general public to the obvious fact that there is serious inflation in the pipeline and this will shed a negative light upon those officials who site official statistics as evidence that inflation is benign. There is credibility at stake, and if credibility is lost, that would have a negative effect upon the financial system, and the economy propping wealth effect. For that reason, I would think that whatever can be done to keep the price of gold down, will be done. It will probably remain in a base until after Christmas. After that, gold would likely head upward in my view.

Enjoy the stock market party while it lasts and have a great evening.

______________

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

-- posted by Normxxx

Top 52. Nov 4, 2005 6:10 AM

» Kirk - Re: Not a Market for Investors

.
In response to Not a Market for Investors posted by Normxxx:

Nice charts and commentary.

This title says it pretty well.

Not a Market for Investors and a Tough Market for Traders

I think that is one reason it is a screaming buy now. I think you sell when it is an “easy market for investors and traders” because that means it has been going up for some time. A rising market makes most traders look brilliant unless they are the permabears who get killed being short.

Bou-ya, Jim! Yet the stock market has gone virtually nowhere in almost 2 years.

LOL, at least it isn’t down. smile

But the truth is, it is up 16% in the last two years. Maybe this commentator and newsletter writer has not done as well or he over trades and lost the gains to commissions?

There is credibility at stake, and if credibility is lost, that would have a negative effect upon the financial system, and the economy propping wealth effect. For that reason, I would think that whatever can be done to keep the price of gold down, will be done. It will probably remain in a base until after Christmas. After that, gold would likely head upward in my view.

Interesting commentary. If we are in for a reversal of trend and inflation returns to a secular uptrend, then Gold will be an important commodity to own and trade.

I find it hard to believe any one organization seeking credibility can actually “keep gold down” if supply/demand currents are strong enough due to the huge size of the market. I wonder what is the total size of the Gold Market? If you were to put all the Gold in the World in one place, how much would it weigh and be worth? Now what is the “float” or trading volume of this each year?

This chart actually shows Gold is at a key support level with higher lows on RSI, a buy here with a stop below the Blue Line makes a lot of sense if you wanted to trade it.

ETF for Gold

I think Gold can go up if the World Economy continues to flourish. That mostly means that China and India are successful in growing their middle class while taxing the rich enough to improve the condition of their poor to stave off revolutions.

The World is awash in liquidity due to excessive savings in countries outside the US. China and India and many other places like Gold over their own currencies for obvious reasons plus it is a key part of those cultures for jewelry and gifts. If you have extra cash, why not invest in buying gold for personal use? I don’t do this or recommend my subscribers do it, but I think I can see why others outside the US might.

As of 11/2/05 the Total Return for "Kirk's Newsletter Portfolio" since 12/31/98 is Up 171% while the NASDAQ is down 4%!!! (my portfolio beta is roughly equal to that of QQQQ.

For 2005, Kirk’s Newsletter is Up 4.2% YTD vs QQQQ down 1.4% YTD vs DJIA down 2.9% YTD vs S&P500 Up 1.5% YTD

-- posted by Kirk

Top 53. Nov 10, 2005 6:05 PM

» Normxxx - Latest Updates: 11/10/05

Latest Updates

By Yahoo!Finance | 10 November 2005

Close Dow +93.89 at 10640.10, S&P +10.31 at 1230.96, Nasdaq +20.87 at 2196.68:

Finally, the market found a catalyst to help preserve the historical outperformance native to November, perhaps setting the market up for a third consecutive week of gains. Strangely, however, the broad-based rally that closed eight of ten sectors higher was ignited by...

...a strong bond auction? At 1:00 ET, the Treasury Dept. sold $13 bln in 10-year notes at a yield of 4.578% and, when indirect bidder participation (i.e. foreign central banks) checked in at a whopping 55.6% - more than twice this year's average of 25% - the 10-year (+18/32) continued to climb, eventually closing the yield at 4.56%. Since high interest rates have continued to be a restraint on the boost that better than expected corporate profits have awarded roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500, the pullback in borrowing costs spurred widespread buying efforts.

To wit, the rate-sensitive Financial sector acted as the strongest source of support, as the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD) closed at a new 52-week high. An afternoon turnaround in the influential Tech sector, which had served as the second largest drag on the market behind Energy, helped lift the Nasdaq into positive territory for good. Discouraging Q2 sales guidance from Cisco Systems (CSCO 17.15 -0.60) was eventually offset by strength in the semiconductor group, led by Intel's (INTC 25.24 +0.44) $25 bln buyback and 25% dividend increase, gains from leading software names and a late-day reversal in Dell (DELL 29.21 +0.19) ahead of its Q3 report. Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples - in order of their influence on the S&P 500 - also gained at least 1.0% on the session. A 1.9% pullback in oil prices ($57.80/bbl -$1.13) was eventually embraced as more of a benefit, clearing the way for a rally in retail that helped offset General Motors' (GM 23.44 -1.19) surprise 2001 restatement, than the burden Energy's 2.7% sell-off instilled throughout most of the day. Separately, U of M sentiment checked in better than expected, weekly jobless claims remained low and the Sep. trade deficit widened 11% to a record $66.1 bln; however, none of the data altered Briefing.com's economic outlook or impacted stocks much at all.DJTA +1.0, DJUA -1.2, DOT +1.3, Nasdaq 100 +1.3, Russell 2000 +0.7, SOX +1.3, S&P Midcap 400 +0.5, XOI -3.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1947/1310, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1714/1285

3:30PM : Market continues to hold its own as broad-based gains leave eight of ten sectors trending higher going into the close. Financial, the most influential sector in the S&P, continues to lead the charge, as 81 of the sector's 84 components trade in positive territory. Despite the greenback hitting another two-year high against the euro, the dollar-sensitive Materials sector - with the S&P's smallest weighting - has also tacked on a gain of more than 1.0%, benefiting largely from Monsanto's (MON 65.86 +1.85) encouraging profit outlook. NYSE Adv/Dec 1903/1334, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1699/1291

3:00PM : Market showing no signs of slowing heading into the final hour of trading as market internals now hold a modestly bullish bias. Decliners on the NYSE, which earlier held a more than 2 to 1 margin over advancers, have relinquished their advantage to advancers, which now hold an 18-to-13 edge. Declining issues on the Nasdaq, which at one point also enjoyed a 2-to-1 margin over advancing issues, now hold a 3-to-4 deficit. Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq's abilities to breach resistance near key technical levels have positioned the indices to close at their best levels of the month. NYSE Adv/Dec 1848/1368, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1688/1280

2:30PM : Equities continue to trade near session highs but recent recovery efforts appear to have temporarily stalled. A 50-cent spike in the price of crude futures to $58.10/bbl (-$0.83) immediately following the day's shut-in statistics, which failed to erase much of the Energy sector's 2.2% sell-off, has acted as one hurdle preventing the indices from climbing even higher. Separately, the Oct. Treasury budget checked in at -$47.2 bln (consensus -$50.0 bln); however, since the data can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, the report has gone relatively unnoticed. NYSE Adv/Dec 1768/1413, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1512/1430

2:00PM : Major averages extend their reach to the upside, as the Tech sector - one of the day's biggest sore spots earlier - turns the corner and helps adjoin the Nasdaq to the Dow and S&P in positive territory. A rebound in chip stocks and a turnaround in large-cap software names like Microsoft (MSFT 27.08 +0.12) and Oracle (ORCL 12.58 +0.07) have provided much of the boost while Apple Computer (AAPL 60.85 +0.74), which flirted with weekly lows earlier, has helped minimized losses in hardware attributed largely to weakness in Dell (DELL 28.85 -0.17) shares ahead of tonight's Q3 report. DOT +0.9, SOX +0.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1454/1702, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1290/1638

1:30PM : Stocks get a boost within the last 30 minutes, taking a bullish cue from a rally in the Treasury market, as the S&P 500 turns positive. Providing the spark has been stronger than expected demand (55.6% indirect bidder participation) from foreign central banks for this afternoon's $13 bln 10-yr note bond auction, which drew a yield of 4.578%. In response, the benchmark 10-yr note is up 14 ticks, knocking the yield down to 4.58% and improving overall sentiment in a rising interest-rate environment that continues to be a restraint on the lift that rising corporate profits have given to stocks. NYSE Adv/Dec 1320/1802, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1125/1770

______________

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

-- posted by Normxxx