ECRI Leading Indicator Forecast 2,000+
- Kirk
- Kirk
- Jas_Jain
- Kirk
- rrdorsch
- Jas_Jain
- ECRI
- ECRI
- rrdorsch
- Kirk
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» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: For the Record
.In response to Re: Re: For the Record posted by Jas_Jain:
I just watched Lakshman's Bloomberg appearance and Steve gives a very accurate reporting.
Lakshman said "one more rate cut" is no problem as the economy can take it according to the numbers... but there are issues in the longer term along the lines of what you've been warning about, a consumer that probably won't have rising home prices to feel good about.
He also showed a very long term WLI chart that gave perspective to the 20 month high in WLI... it is still low compared to other times.
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - Weekly Leading Index Edges Down
.Index down but growth rate makes another local high.
Reuters
Weekly Leading Index Edges Down
02/10/2006
NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - A gauge of U.S. economic growth edged down in the latest week due to weaker housing activity, higher jobless claims and higher interest rates, a report said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index fell to 138.0 in the week ended Feb. 3 from 138.2 in the prior week.
The annualized growth rate of the index rose to 4.9 percent in the latest week, compared with 4.6 percent the prior week.
"The growth rate has now climbed to another 20-month high suggesting that U.S. economic growth prospects are reasonably healthy for now," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.
-- posted by Kirk
» Jas_Jain - Bloomberg appearance
In response to Bloomberg appearance posted by SteveT:--
Thanks, Steve. Also, thanks to Kirk, for the report and comments.
"(1) ...The major worry is the Leading Home Price Index has fallen to an eleven year low. Last time the index was this low was the mid 1990s and home prices did decrease, not that was a bad thing then. The problem is you never know if it will turn into something worse. Most people think this will just be a pause in home prices, but most people aren’t right around turning points.
"2) Homeowners spend five out of every six dollars spent by consumers. This could equate to softer consumer spending growth later this year."
I repeat: WLI's fate lies strictly in the hands of the MAGNITUDE of Housing Bubble’s burst. As soon as the YoY price declines we would be wither already in a recession or very close to it. The housing prices leaked in August 2005. Therefore, 2006Q3 is when we would be in or close to a recession IF the YoY price decline materializes.
"...but Lakshman don’t see a recession on the radar screen at this time."
That is what I thought that he has been emphasizing for the past couple of weeks -- some problems but no recession in sight.
We shall see how Lakshman changes his tune over the next 6 months as the housing keeps on pouring bad news. I do expect a small bounce in housing when Mar-May data are released, but that would be the end.
Jas
-- posted by Jas_Jain
» Kirk - Weekly Leading Index Edges Down
.Weekly Leading Index Edges Down
02/17/2006
NEW YORK, Feb 17 (Reuters) - A gauge of U.S. economic growth edged down in the latest week but remained relatively strong overall, a report said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index fell to 136.9 in the week ended Feb. 10 from 138.2 in the prior week.
The dip in the index was likely the result of higher-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims along with reduce mortgage applications reported this week, ECRI said.
The index's annualized growth rate eased to 4.7 percent in the latest week compared with 5.2 percent in the prior week.
"On balance, you have a situation where the index fell, but its growth rate is still well above where it was two months ago," said Anirvan Banerji, director of research for ECRI.
"So despite this latest one-week dip in the index level, growth has clearly improved in the last two months, affirming that U.S. growth prospects are fairly healthy," Banerji said.
-- posted by Kirk
» Jas_Jain - Lakshman Sounded Very Bullish on CNBC
-And quite dismissive of any threat of a recession. I forget thge actual term but it was the first time I heard him use that. He is becoming very creative in use of terms except for giving the probability of a recession in 6-8 months. That would leave no r0om for confusion.
Jas
-- posted by Jas_Jain
» ECRI - Weekly Leading Index Edges Down
In response to Weekly Leading Index Edges Down posted by rrdorsch:The lead of the LHPI is roughly three quarters. Last time it was this weak was 11 years ago, and we did see a slight decline in the LEVEL of home prices nationwide. We'll see what happens this time. The most recent reading of the LHPI shows a slight uptick.
-- posted by ECRI
» ECRI - Lakshman Sounded Very Bullish on CNBC
In response to Lakshman Sounded Very Bullish on CNBC posted by Jas_Jain:Jas,
You're right about a slight shift in tone. Near-term (first half of 2006) looks a bit more resilient based on stronger WLI and services indexes. But farther out in 2006 there are some clouds related to weaker housing price growth and slower global industrial activity.
Kind regards,
Lakshman
-- posted by ECRI
» rrdorsch - Lakshman Sounded Very Bullish on CNBC
Lakshman,Thanks for the reply. I've noticed the change in tone also. I'm planning on putting my house on the market this spring here in Minnesota because I'm getting married this summer, but I'd be thinking about selling even if I wasn't. Anecdotally it just seems like people are stretched too thin with all the debt.
Rod
-- posted by rrdorsch
» Kirk - New ECRI Fourm - Join us there!
.In response to Lakshman Sounded Very Bullish on CNBC posted by rrdorsch:
I've started to post updates for ECRI's WLI in our new Ecri Data & Forecast Forum.
Here are the new Suite101 URLs to Bookmark: http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...
New Suite101 Investment Topic, Discussions and Articles
Please use Kirk's Market Thoughts to post articles and Ideas you want me to comment on between newsletters or to make suggestions for charts to send my FREE STUFF & Sample Newsletter Mailing List
Please no more posts here... they will be deleted.
Thanks
-- posted by Kirk
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