GOOG: Google

http://arstechnica.com/journals/microsof...

Top 42. Dec 23, 2005 10:01 AM

» smile_1 - my bad on msn.com speed

"MSN is still very slow compared to goog, since they are loading a bunch of links and images and other stuff - too bad so sad"

I went back and checked again must have been a glitch earlier cause msn searches are smoking fast now...

I just did a test using "monster garage"

for msn it took .08 secs
for goog it took .11 secs

both came back with the answer I was expecting

also I think msn is considering paying back $ to loyal users...

interesting I entered "msn search dollars back" in each respective search engine, msn came back faster but goog gave me the answer I was looking for...

so maybe msn has the speed but they need to work on that search algorithm smile

_____________

from the goog search which was slower by .04 secs but more accurate...

December 09, 2005 @ 9:32PM - posted by Steve Dispensa
Microsoft considers pay-to-search model for MSN search

In a recent speech given in India, Bill Gates indicated that Microsoft is considering paying web searchers a portion of the profit that their clicks generate. John Battelle reports on his blog that the company may give software or cash to users of its search portal in exchange for clicking on ads.

Reaction to the idea has been mixed. Henry Blodget of Internet Outsider likes it:
Finally, an idea from Microsoft (or at least from Mr. Gates) that might actually cause some tremors in the paid search world. Instead of keeping all that super-high-margin search revenue for itself--the way Google does--Microsoft is apparently thinking of sharing some of it with the folks who create most of the value: the searchers.

But others are concerned about the obvious drawback of the scheme: the huge potential for click fraud. Giving users an incentive to click ad links above their basic search needs could skew results. As an advertiser, the click-throughs would certainly be worth less to me, knowing that the clickers are being bribed by the search engine.

Whatever your take, it is at least an interesting idea. It's nice to see Microsoft innovating in the search engine department, rather than playing catch-up to Google. Then again, Amazon.com may have beaten them to this too.

-- posted by smile_1

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.m...

Top 43. Dec 23, 2005 5:05 PM

» smile_1 - Re: click fraud per Goog 10Q 9/30/05

In response to Re: click fraud per Goog 10Q 9/30/05 posted by SteveT:

Yeah what's to prevent someone long Google to sit and jump from one site to the other clicking on ads all day?

as I said nada, and here is someone long who maybe is thinking along those lines...

seems these longs have their panties in a wad after the extended hrs session had a slight drop in Goog to the 428 region.

-- posted by smile_1

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/200...

Top 44. Jan 7, 2006 1:29 PM

» smile_1 - Goog Pack

I hope GOOG shot up in price last week on the analyst hype (pump to dump @500) and not on anticipation of Larry Page's introduction of innovative approaches to diversify their bread-n-butter primary source of Revenue.

Looks interesting:

Not.

Be careful if you decide to dwnld it though it looks like an auto install (in background). It appears to be a beta and requires xp & either Firefox 1.0+ or Internet Explorer 6.0+.

The direct link to the GOOG pack is in the article above. I did not post because I generally eschew beta versions.

I already saw someone say they had to reformat after their dwnld of GOOG Pack, if you can believe anything on the yahoo bds:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?ac...

_______________

The positive spin on GOOG is it forges alliances and collaboration and is forcing others to do the same to the benefit of the consumer I hope. Even MSFT knows now it must work with others instead of their usual MO of either buying or destroying others in the space.

-- posted by smile_1

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/01/07/google...

Top 45. Jan 8, 2006 2:19 PM

» smile_1 - CES 2006: Google's Larry Page draws crowd, but falls short

In response to Goog Pack posted by smile_1:

Seems I'm not the only one who thought Page missed the mark and pre keynote hype (GOOG PC - not, GOOG CUBE - nothing there either).

I would say about half the run up in GOOG price last week was due to rumors of new product anticipated to be introd. at CES by Page.

Earnings out 1/31/06 should be the key for this Ca$h machine.

-- posted by smile_1

http://kyeu.info/proxo/forums/viewtopic....

Top 46. Jan 10, 2006 10:44 AM

» smile_1 - Google has a problem

Does Google have a problem if they can not diversify their source of Revenue away from context style text search ads?

1) Click Fraud
2) Context ads don't drive sales
3) end users who filter content using HTML filters like BFilter or Proxomitron don't even see these ads.

Freebie for Proxomitron users:

Name = "Kill Google Sponsored Links - Side"
Active = TRUE
URL = "[^.]+.google.*/"
Limit = 12000
Match = "(table cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=25% align=right bgColor=#ffffff border=0)"
"*"
"(/table)"

replace ( ) with < > at (/table) & (table... border=0) or it won't work. Copy into your favorite filter set under [Patterns]

link to this and other filters:

insiders selling this tulip like mad:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=GOOG

watch what Reyes (CFO) is doing

-- posted by smile_1

http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&act...

Top 47. Jan 12, 2006 3:07 PM

» smile_1 - Re: Google has a problem

In response to Re: Google has a problem posted by Kirk:

the filter I listed above wipes the whole right side of ads @ google.com

speaking of Tivo take a look at the response to my post by tlcc96:

-- posted by smile_1

Top 48. Jan 12, 2006 5:03 PM

» smile_1 - Re: Google has a problem

In response to Re: Re: Google has a problem posted by Kirk:

MO players get spooked easy and insiders are selling GOOG like crazy.

Barrier to entry issue is real and very small (not good for GOOG). Heck if MSN starts paying me to click on ads - can you spell bonanza.

GOOG Earnings and forward look will be the key. The bloat factor could see GOOG lose 150 to 200 pts inside a few days easy.

-- posted by smile_1

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/bus...

Top 49. Jan 15, 2006 10:02 AM

» AL_W - Google in the SJ Mercury

Interesting article in the San Jose Mercury?

Opinions??

and GO DAN G

Posted on Sun, Jan. 15, 2006

Is there no drop to Google stock?

PREDICTIONS REACH AS HIGH AS $2,000 FOR A SINGLE SHARE

By Michael BazeleyMercury News

Matthew Sheridan was feeling savvy when he sold his Google stock in late February last year for about $200 -- more than double the company's IPO price just six months earlier.

Like many investors, though, the freelance Santa Cruz programmer now is wondering why he bailed out so soon. The technology giant's shares seemingly have no ceiling -- they've more than doubled again since Sheridan sold his, ending Friday at $466.25 a share.

``I'm feeling a little stupid now,'' Sheridan said of his early exit from the stock. ``Who knows? Maybe there's time to get back in.''
There might be. Google's shares have been on a tear since the company's August 2004 initial public stock offering. The stock glided past three milestones last year -- $200 in April, $300 in September and $400 in November. And stock experts are saying it could climb much higher.

How high?

One Wall Street analyst predicted that Google's shares would hit $600 by the end of the year.

Another predicted that Google's shares will hit a whopping $2,000, eventually. That would value Google at more than half a trillion dollars.

``It's a growth company, it's a profitable company, the kids who founded it have done extremely well,'' said Neil Hennessy, president of Hennessy Funds in Novato. ``But it's starting to get very lofty.''

One reason Google's stock looks especially rich is that the company has never split its shares. During the technology boom of the late 1990s, companies with surging stock prices frequently split the price of their shares, effectively giving investors more shares of stock for the same amount of money.

Yahoo has done five stock splits since it was founded. Without them, its shares would be trading at about $980. Amazon.com, which has done three stock splits, would be trading at $532 today without them.

Google refuses to discuss its stock's performance, but it has hinted it has no plans to split its shares. What's more, Google's founders have stated their fondness for the business ideals of famed investor Warren Buffett. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, has never split its stock, the priciest in the United States at $89,600 a share.

Search king

Driving the pricey stock predictions is Google's dominance of Internet searching and its growing influence on online advertising. Google took in $1.58 billion in revenue last quarter -- nearly double its revenue over the previous year. And analysts are predicting that type of growth to continue.

Analyst Safa Rashtchy, who set his $600 price target the first week of January, is betting that the Internet search market will grow more than 41 percent this year, and that Google's share of that market -- now at 40 percent -- will expand. He also expects Google to become more innovative with its advertising and for its other company projects, such as its new online database called Google Base, to start generating meaningful revenue.

``We believe Google is singularly positioned to benefit from the most promising areas of Internet, search and advertising,'' Rashtchy wrote in his note to clients.

Analyst Marianne Wolk of Susquehanna Financial Group said that interviews her firm conducted with search engine and advertising industry companies convince her that Google's made important changes to its advertising services -- moves that will drive more money to Google.

``The real question is, what is the earning power of Google,'' said Wolk, who has a ``buy'' rating on Google's stock. ``A lot of people feel that the current estimates for them are too low. Most people anticipate that Google will surpass expectations.''

As bubbly as Google's stock market value appears, it's actually nowhere near as extreme as some Internet Bubble-era valuations.

Juniper Networks' stock closed at $243 on Oct. 16, 2000. That's far less than Google. But the company's price-to-earnings ratio -- the measure of what investors are willing to pay for a company's earnings -- was an exorbitant 823. Yahoo shares boasted a P/E ratio of 863 in January of 2000, while Cisco Systems' was 188 at its peak.

Google's P/E ratio, by contrast, was a paltry 97.5 on Friday. The average P/E ratio for all Nasdaq companies was 37.1.

Bill Noonan pays less attention to a company's earnings potential than many Wall Street analysts. His firm, Contravisory Research, does statistical analysis on stock trends. Noonan says Google appears to be in the middle of an 18- to 24-month growth curve.

``The uptrend is very strong,'' Noonan said. ``It seems like they have more room to grow.''

Could Google hit $700 or $800 next year?
``I could definitely see that,'' Noonan said.

Emerging skeptics

Not surprisingly, these lofty predictions about Google's stock price often become self-fulfilling prophecies. Investors read about an analyst's strong confidence in a company and pour money into the stock, hoping to catch whatever upside remains. Google's shares marched steadily upward in the days after Rashtchy and others released their lofty price targets.

Professor Werner De Bondt of DePaul University's Graduate School of Business is an expert on investor psychology. He says most investors do not understand how to evaluate a company's financial condition, so they seek out ``anchors'' to help them judge a stock's worth.

Analyst price targets serve as anchors for many investors. And as they rise, so does investor confidence.

One study asked retirees to forecast their investment portfolios. Instead of evaluating a company's growth prospects, the retirees tended to base their forecast on a stock's current price and recent track-record.

``Throughout the 1990s, I thought that the market was kind of high,'' De Bondt said. ``But you get used to it.''

But there are Google skeptics emerging from the shadows.

Henry Blodget, the bubble-era analyst famous for touting Internet stocks, recently offered one of the few notes of caution about Google's fortunes. Blodget, who once predicted that Amazon.com's shares would hit $400 (they did), laid out a scenario in which Google's advertising revenue -- its chief revenue stream -- plummets through a combination ``market saturation and price pressure'' and other issues.

Blodget said Google's shares could plummet to $100, if the right -- or wrong -- pieces fell into place.

``Is such a scenario likely?'' Blodget wrote on his blog. ``Probably not. But it's certainly within the realm of possibility. (How do we know this? Because the same thing just happened to Yahoo, AOL, and every other advertising-driven dot-com on the planet -- except that in those cases, the fallout was worse).''

Hennessy is even more bearish. He evaluates a company's stock price against its sales numbers. He looks at Google and sees a company far too overvalued by the market. In fact, he said, even if Google were to double its sales next year, he would find it hard to justify buying the stock.
``Is it worth that much money? I would say no. I'm not sure that emotion isn't getting the best of people,'' he said.

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Contact Michael Bazeley at mbazeley@mercurynews.com or (408) 920-5642, and read his blog at www.siliconbeat.com.
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-- posted by AL_W

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.01...

Top 50. Jan 18, 2006 2:34 PM

» smile_1 - Another Click Fraud analysis

expensive ppc ad keywords + fraud says GOOG is ripe for further scalping + competition from search.yahoo.com, search.msn.com, ask.com etc

GOOG is a $228 stock about fv if they sustain 30% lt growth

I would begin buying GOOG at about 30, maybe

-- posted by smile_1