Wimbledon Men's Bottom-Half Review

Posted by T. A. Niles Jul 1, 2007

My bottom-half picks for the men at Wimbledon have been decent, except for my dark horse (Ivo Karlovic), who is now a dead horse. Murray’s scratch was a disappointment to the Brits, and just about everybody else I picked is still in it. This half has all eight matches yet to be played, making it more difficult for whoever reaches the final.

Experts Hedging Bets with Soderling

The experts seem to think that Rafael Nadal may go down to No.28 seed Robin Soderling. Not! Nadal may lose a set, but I’d put my savings on Nadal against a guy who lost to Baghdatis in the second round in Halle. Soderling is a big server and hitter, so he has a puncher’s chance, but he won’t land the haymaker. Nadal will reach the fourth round.

Baghdatis-Nalbandian Worth Watching

One of the best third-round match-ups of the draw’s bottom-half is the Marcos Baghdatis-David Nalbandian match. The last time they played was in the semis of the year’s first Grand Slam (Australian), and it went five, with Baghdatis taking it 6-4 in the fifth. These two will definitely leave some scorched grass behind, but I think Baghdatis will move forward in four or five sets. It may be one of the best matches of the bottom-half, but it’s not the best story.

Four Frenchmen in Fourth Round?

What I, and nobody else on the face of the planet (unless he/she was snorting Wimbledon fertilizer) predicted was that there would be three Frenchmen in the fourth round with the possibility of a fourth if unseeded Gael Monfils can get past No.6 Nikolay Davydenko. That’s right, we could have four, I said FOUR, Frenchmen in the fourth round! One American; four Frenchmen? Go figure.

Monfils Should Get Past Davydenko

Monfils has all of the physical goods to retire Davydenko, but I’m not convinced that he has the mental game to persevere. But then again, I’m not too keen on Davydenko’s mental game and Monfils did beat Davydenko the one time they’ve played. It’s a “pick-’em” match, but I’m giving the nod to Monfils.

Battle of the Thirty-Somethings

Other than the Nalbandian-Baghdatis and the Monfils-Davydenko matches, few of the other match-ups in the bottom-half excite me. Jarko Nieminen and Mikhail Youzhny should have a good match that may go five, but no fireworks there. Wayne Arthurs and Jonas Bjorkman will give us a battle of the almost-retired-barely-hanging-on-in-their-last-hurrahs, so this one will probably be the more hotly contested matches of the day.

The 36-year-old Arthurs will bring the classic serve-volley, and the 35-year-old Bjorkman, knows how to play the grass game as well, getting to the semis of Nottingham. Bjorkman (27 matches) has played a lot more than Arthurs (3 matches) this year coming into Wimbledon, so I’ll have to give the match-tough Bjorkman the edge.

Berdych to Finish Third-Round Match

No.7 seed Tomas Berdych, who the talking heads are suggesting may be the player to come from the bottom-half of the draw, should finish up his third-round win over Hyung-Taik Lee tomorrow. Although he struggled to close it out (blowing several set-points), he won the first set and is on-serve in the second.

Djokovic Likely to Advance

Unseeded Nicolas Kiefer will go up against Novak Djokovic, and coming into Wimbledon, Kiefer had played only one match this year, losing to Berdych in straight sets on the grass at Halle. He has won two matches in straight sets, but not likely to overcome Djokovic.

If Djokovic wins as expected, he will face the winner of Guillermo Canas and Lleyton Hewitt. Neither of the two will have the firepower to stand up to Djokovic, but they should have a good match. Neither is a grass-court specialist, but Hewitt is a former champion (2002), and should pull this one out with his improved serve.

Nadal, Djokovic, or Berdych

As we move into the final week of Wimbledon, most of the talk on the men’s side will be whether Rafael Nadal can make it through to meet Federer in the final. If Nadal can scratch either of the "itches" (Berdych and Djokovic), he could be facing in his half of the draw, he is the only player who might instill enough doubt in Federer to make it interesting.