Mar 21, 2008

ATP Pacific Life Update

Ya think Rafa Nadal’s confidence is high right about now? Tsonga up 5-2 in the third and Nadal comes back to win five straight? Blake up 4-2 in the first only to lose it 7-5, then after Blake smokes him 6-3 in the second, Rafa comes back to win 6-3 in the third?

You know he’s thinking he can’t lose, and he’s got Djokovic next, whom he beat in straights last time they played. And, Djokovic hasn’t exactly been lighting it up since his win in Australia, losing in Marseille and Dubai.

On the top half of the draw, Federer is probably not getting much sleep. If he gets past Tommy Haas, which he probably will, he is likely to be facing David Nalbandian (unless Mardy Fish pulls the upset). Nalbandian has beaten Federer the last two times out, and they are even at 8-8.

Federer better not look past Haas or he could stumble, and Fish has been playing some good ball of late (and beat Nalbandian the only time they played-a couple centuries ago), so Nalbandian had better bring it.

That said, Nadal will probably sneak by Djokovic in three, and Federer will do the same against Nalbandian in the semis, setting up the first meeting of the No.1 and 2 players in the world this year. Federer has won the last two, so he is on Rafa’s hit-list, just as Tsonga and Blake were.

Although Nadal has played back-to-back three-setters already (and is likely to have another against Djokovic in the semis), if he makes the final, I believe he’ll take it…even against the best player who has ever lived. Federer has yet to fully regain his confidence, especially since he hasn’t really been tested in his straight-set wins over less-than-stellar competition. Nadal in three...Game, set, match...