Casing the 2008 Oscars 1

Posted by Dominic von Riedemann Aug 3, 2007

Is it that time already? The 2007 Oscars happened only 6 months ago and pundits of all stripes are already trying to call the 2008 race.

Tom O'Neil at the L.A. Times has decided he absolutely had to get the jump on the competition and started polling various movie pundits about who will win the Best Animated Feature Film Oscar in February of 2008.

I think it's a little premature to start handicapping the contestants considering many of the possible flicks (such as DreamWorks Animation's Bee Movie) haven't even hit theatres yet. However, if people are already doing it, I'll weigh in as well (sheep go "Baaa").

Ratatouille: Unquestionably the heavyweight contender for this year. Many reviewers called it one of Pixar's best and an instant classic. Ratatouille is still rocking a 95% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and is the most-praised movie of 2007 so far. Veteran Disney animator Vic Taboush (Sleeping Beauty, Lady and the Tramp, 101 Dalmations) even called this flick "the best animated film since Pinocchio." That kind of thing perks up Oscar's ears. The film's feel-good theme – that not everyone can be a great artist but that great art can come from anywhere – will also resonate with Academy voters. Ratatouille was an A+ effort from a studio that usually cranks out A level material, and that's something that Oscar likes to reward.

On the other hand, the Academy might decide that Pixar's awards case is already pretty full and give their kudos to someone else.

The Simpsons Movie: "I think The Simpsons Movie is going to be Pixar's prime competition at the Oscars," says Edward Douglas of Coming Soon.

"Look at how many Emmys The Simpsons has won," Douglas continues, "and it's very much in the mainstream public consciousness. And the movie is just as good and just as funny as Ratatouille. They really stepped up their game with the . . . normally primitive animation from the show. I'd think that by December (when both should be out on DVD), they'll be neck-and-neck among critics/Oscar voters in terms of favorites."

If The Simpsons Movie wins, it will be considered a triumph of low-brow populism over high art, and that's not something that Oscar wants to be associated with. The Academy plays it safe with their choices, but they always want everyone to know that they're about movies as art, not purely commerce. On the other hand, The Simpsons has won a lot of awards and Oscar may want to reward the fact that the long-running series translated so successfully to the big screen. However, I still give Ratatouille the edge.

Shrek the Third: Not even a contender in my view. Yes, it's the big moneymaker of the Summer of 2007, but it's the second sequel in a franchise and the creative Academy voters (directors, scriptwriters, etc.) don't want to encourage the movie industry's rampant sequel-itis. Besides, most reviewers panned it: Oscar doesn't like to reward mediocrity.

Bee Movie: One of the dark horses of the Oscar race, considering it hasn't even hit theatres yet. Probably in the best position to profit from a Pixar back-lash, and Jerry Seinfeld's involvement gives the movie a fair amount of credibility. The brilliant trailers, along with Seinfeld's flying stunt at Cannes, gave it tons o' buzz. Like George Miller with Happy Feet, Oscar likes to see artists in one area successfully cross over into another. But this movie could quickly slide out of contention if it tanks with critics and moviegoers.

Beowulf: Will this movie even be in the running? Some pundits, taking sides in the "is motion-capture really animation?" debate, think that Beowulf may not even be animated enough for Oscar voters. The sticking point is the "frame-by-frame" reference in the rules. Can Robert Zemeckis prove that Beowulf was animated using a frame-by-frame technique? If so, then it will be a solid contender, if the flick goes over well with critics and moviegoers.

I doubt it will receive a nomination: Beowulf looks too photo-realistic to pass muster. Definitely look for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination for Roger Avary and Neil Gaiman, though.

TMNT: The offshore choice. The film's Hong Kong starting point may get it some love, but I doubt it will make it into the Final Five. Movies based on toy lines don't get much Oscar love (although Michael Bay's Transformers may scoop a lot of technical awards).

Surf's Up: Not a contender. It will likely get a nomination, based on the Academy foul-up that cost last year's Open Season a chance at the prize. However, the movie suffered from a lack of originality, and it's dying in theatres. Possibly the Monster House of this year's pack.

My Pick (based on what I've seen so far): Ratatouille. It's the artistic choice, but it's not an edgy choice. It possesses enough artistic credibility to wow the Academy, but isn't controversial enough to turn off voters. The Simpsons Movie is the dark horse candidate that has a solid shot. Bee Movie may take Oscar if it wows critics and moviegoers, or Beowulf if the Academy decides it is actually an animated film.