Oscar 2009 Predictions

Posted by Steven Cookson Feb 13, 2009

Okay, everyone is doing one of these and I’m bored so I thought I’d give it a shot as the awards are on in less than two weeks. This is actually the first time I’ve ever done a semi-full list of who I think will win so chances are I’ll get very few correct.

When the nominations were announced there were a couple of surprises (it was good to see Robert Downey Jr get one for being the best thing about Tropic Thunder) but largely it was a largely expected list with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire leading the pack.

There’s also been a bit of controversy by the fact that The Dark Knight, The Wrestler and Doubt and their respective directors have all been ignored in some of the major categories despite being some of the most acclaimed films of the year. And from my personal point of view it’s also shocking that Michael Sheen (who plays “the other guy” in Frost/Nixon) has been snubbed again by the Academy. Shame on them.

Enough of all that though, here’s my picks. Note that this list does not reflect my personal opinion on who should win just who I think probably will win. Agree? Disagree? Add your own thoughts if you want.

Best Picture – Slumdog Millionaire

It’s amazing how well this film has done considering the rough life it had and that it very nearly didn’t happen. Slumdog Millionaire is the film of the moment and such is the appreciation at the moment it would be daft not to recognise it.

Directing – David Fincher

The smart money might be on Danny Boyle to sneak this after triumphing at the BAFTAs but given that Benjamin Button is up for so many awards and will most likely win only in the technical categories Fincher may get this as a consolation.

Actor in A Leading Role – Mickey Rourke

Much has been made about the parallels between Rourke and his character Randy “The Ram” Robinson and it is a performance that is utterly believable and heartfelt rather than a caricature of what people think wrestler’s look like.

Actor In A Supporting Role – Heath Ledger

The easiest one to predict. Of course Ledger’s stock for this award went up after his untimely death but his transformation into the psychotic Joker helped The Dark Knight transcend above the notion of “comic-book movie” and obviously had a lot of fun as the character.

Actress in A Leading Role – Kate Winslet

A hard one to predict but after gobbling up just about every other actress award it looks like it will be Kate’s year finally even though she should have won for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. The Academy might just give it to her so that she doesn’t keep coming back all the time.

Actress In A Supporting Role – Marisa Tomei

Another hard one. However, given that Marisa Tomei’s performance in The Wrestler is every bit as important as Rourke’s it would be good for her to get some acknowledgement. But I’ll probably be wrong.

Writing (Original Screenplay) – In Bruges

With the BAFTA in the bag it seems like nothing will be able to stop Martin McDonagh’s black comedy about two Irish hitmen hiding out In Bruges from taking the Oscar. It deserves to win as no other film last year had the same wit or used swear words so poetically.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay) - Slumdog Millionaire

It’s been 12 years since Simon Beaufoy’s script for The Full Monty lost out to the inferior Good Will Hunting but nothing should stop his adaptation of Vikas Swarup’s novel Q and A from scooping the prize.

Animated Feature Film – Wall-E

Another easy one, as many thought it would and should have been up for Best Film. Pixar usually triumph in this category and there’s nothing to suggest it won’t come out on top again with this.

Foreign Language Film – Waltz With Bashir

Ari Folman’s documentary animation of his time during the 1982 Lebanon War was another film that many considered would be up for the top prize and like Wall-E it will take the award in is category.

Documentary Feature – Man On Wire

After the win at the BAFTAs for Best British Film (and beating Slumdog in the process) James Marsh’s feature about French performance artist Philippe Petit’s tightrope walk between the Twin Towers in 1974 should be favourite for this.