Kyoto Protocol Successor

Posted by Laurence O'Sullivan Sep 9, 2008

While researching the article “Simple Guide to the Kyoto Protocol” I was struck by the small size in the proposed cut in average carbon dioxide emissions, just 6% of the 1990 levels. But by the time Kyoto was ratified, in 2005, that 6% of 1990 levels was nearer 18% of the levels at ratification. Just shows how much carbon dioxide levels rose in just 15 years.

The Kyoto Protocol has still over 3 years to run and whether the world will meet its Kyoto commitments by that time is still to be determined. Nevertheless we are well on the way to a follow up on Kyoto and this looks like being more controversial and much more difficult to sell to the world than Kyoto itself.

While, with the exception of the United States, virtually the whole developed world signed up to the original treaty, it may be more reluctant to do so with any new environmental pact, without guarantees that resultant cuts in emissions would apply to all signatories to the treaty. It also looks like emission cutbacks would be more onerous next time round with greater economic impacts for the developed world.

The developing world found it easy to sign up to Kyoto as they were absolved of making any significant cutbacks in their emissions and the carbon trading mechanisms set up under Kyoto gave a boost to their economies. This will not be the case in any new treaty. There will be limits applied to the developing world, especially to China and India.

Just as Kyoto became bogged down in politics, so too will any new follow up treaty. This does not augur well for the environment. Deep cuts in carbon dioxide emissions will be needed to avoid the dire consequences of climate change.