Bob Brinker's Secular Bear is Over

Posted by Kirk Lindstrom Jun 11, 2007

Between May 2003 and June 2007, I had Brinker as:

• ST: Bob does not do short term market timing after he failed with the QQQQ disaster in October 2000.
• IT (Intermediate Term; 1 to 5 years): Bullish - Fully Invested. EXCEPTIONAL advice.
• LT (Long Term: 5 to 20 years): Bearish - He wrote he believed the markets were "in a secular Bear market Mega trend."

Reference:

• In his July 4, 2003 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe that the U.S. stock market entered into a new secular bear market megatrend based on the March 24, 2000 Standard and Poor's 500 Index close of 1527.46. If past history is any guide investors will have to wait a very long time befoe they see that level materially exceeded. However a series of cyclical bear markets and cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the secular bear market megatrend."

Now I have Bob Brinker as bullish for the short, intermediate and long term:

• ST: Bullish: Mark Hulbert reported Brinker says "No Bear Market in 2007."
• IT (Intermediate Term; 1 to 3 years): Bullish - Fully Invested. EXCEPTIONAL advice... so far.
• LT (Long Term: 3 to 20 years): Bullish - "the valuation based secular bear market... reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006."

Reference:

• In his June 2007 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 Index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."

I've read that many consider themselves underinvested in equities because of their respect for Brinker's former bearish long term market outlook. I'm interested in what they plan to do now. Please tell us here.

Kirk's Note: I believe we have been in a long term secular bull market with the lastest record high in 2007 a "higher high" after the March 2000 high with only a single cyclical bull market bottom in October 2002. See the definition of a secular bear