Nov 15, 2006

Bad Timing For Matt Kenseth

By all standards, Matt Kenseth has had a remarkable 2006 Nextel Cup season. He has four wins, 15 top fives (which leads all Nextel Cup drivers), and 20 top tens. But even in stellar seasons, drivers tend to hit a dry spell.

In 2005, Tony Stewart's dry spell occurred during the first quarter of the season. After that, he struck hot. Kenseth has not been so fortunate in 2006.

Heading into the NASCAR Nextel Cup Chase for the Championship, Kenseth was the odds-on favorite to win his second title. He had just won two of the final four regular season races at Bristol and Michigan, and appeared to have the 1.5-mile intermediate tracks nailed.

But it is almost like someone turned off a switch, and now the 17 team is running like garbage. Well, garbage in their standards, top fifteen and top twenty isn't bad for a lot of teams these days.

It's hard to pinpoint when and where things went wrong for Kenseth and Robbie Reiser. Was it at Dover, when they ran out of gas? I don't think so, I mean, they dominated the race. Perhaps it was Kansas. Everyone thought that Kenseth would be a player at Kansas, but he ran midpack all day, and could not find the handle. Was that when Kenseth lost confidence in their program?

Kenseth struggled at Lowe's and Texas, but was back in form at Atlanta where he finished fourth. But then came Phoenix. Again, Kenseth was just unable to find that cozy balance. And now, he finds himself 63 points behind the red hot Jimmie Johnson with one race remaining.

Three months ago, these roles were reversed. It was Kenseth who could do no wrong, and Johnson was struggling to find a comfortable balance. Johnson went several months without a top five, if I remember correctly. Now he can do no wrong.

It's funny how this whole momentum thing works!

autoracing@suite101.com