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Nov 16, 2006

NCAA Division I Cross Country

1. Martin Fagan (Providence) Absolute monster of a year. His performance at Regionals reminded me of the way Kim Smith used to dominate. If he races to his potential, he will bury the field, Kennedyesque.

2. Josh Rohatinsky (Bringham Young) I am not jumping on the Solinsky bandwagon this Fall. He has not looked as dominant in the past. However, if there is anyone with as much talent in the field as Solinsky, it is Mormon Rohatinsky. Rohatinsky will be primed and ready to challenge all moves by Fagan... strong enough to sustain the early pace of McDougal and quick enough to cover the bursts from Solinsky. However, Fagan will be too strong down the stretch.

3. Chris Solinsky (Wisconsin) Alright, so he doesn't win, ala Bairu and the Wisco of old lore. Solinsky has the team element on his side, and that makes him a bit less dangerous. However, if he has Eagon and Co. with him past 4 miles, look for Solinsky to gain Armstrong-like confidence in the race-deciding 5th mile.

4. Jacob Korir (Eastern Kentucky) Korir put over 30-seconds on McDougal in over a mile and a half. Absolutely impressive. If he can contain himself in this race, run within himself and be content to let McDougal set the pace, then watch for Korir to unleash another great final mile. Unless it is less than 20-degrees on race day, Korir will run well.

5. Barnabas Kirui (Mississippi) Great Region meet places Kirui on the map of consideration. Plus, the presence of Africa in the top twenty will give him confidence with J. Korir, Mike Korir (Wyoming), Kevin Chelimo (Texas Tech), the UTepians, and the S. Alabama squad (as well as Songok and friends) will give Kirui the stimulus he needs to represent the KEN.

6. Josh McDougal (Liberty) The lone, brave warrior. Once again, his lack of variation in training will haunt him once he is pressed by 8K. He will be unable to respond to the harriers more comfortable at 4'40" pace for the final drive home. Another brave run.

7. Galen Rupp (Oregon) His "low-key" season results in a "low-key" performance. He runs well and curses himself for not mixing it up later in the race and just running for the team.