Daniel Workman's Blog

Posted by Daniel Workman

The Forum for International Trade Training (FITT) recently awarded the Certified International Trade Professional (CITP) designation to one of my colleagues, Miran Bek.

FITT is the world's leading international trade training and professional certification body. Miran Bek is the managing director of Bek Group Limited in Toronto, Ontario.

The CITP is the highest mark of professionalism in international trade and the only professional designation of its kind in Canada. FITT confers this designation on individuals who have met educational and experiential requirements. CITPs are recognized as having the highest knowledge and skills across a broad range of international business competencies. These competencies are established by Canadian businesses working in international trade and are then certified by FITT.

Mr. Bek commented "I am proud to be awarded the CITP designation and have the honor to share the acquired knowledge with the international trade community."

About FITT

An international trade training and professional certification body - and the only organization of its kind in the world - FITT sets the standards and designs the training programs leading to the professional designation, Certified International Trade Professional (CITP). FITT's quality training programs impart knowledge and practical skills that trade practitioners can apply immediately. In turn, this provides a competitive advantage and elevates graduates' strategic position in world markets.

FITT President

FITT President Caroline Tompkins affirmed that "FITT remains focused on its commitment to develop valued and relevant international trade programs and services, as well as implementing comprehensive standards for global trade practitioners."

Tompkins added that "We are extremely proud to welcome Miran to the growing group of CITPs across Canada who are excelling in the international trade arena thanks to the skills, knowledge, competencies and support they have earned along with their CITP designation."

FITT Mission Statement

FITT equips individuals and organizations with knowledge and practical skills required to be leaders in the global business environment. FITT is partnered with more than 60 universities and colleges in Canada and has been recognized by the World Trade Centre Association as a standard of excellence in international trade education. FITT membership provides ongoing professional development and networking opportunities plus CITPs and members play a direct role in ensuring Canada's international trade competitiveness.

Source: Scott C. Ferris, CITP, Director of Business Development at FITT.

Posted by Daniel Workman

As mentioned in my article Baltic Dry Index Flags Global Recovery, the Baltic Exchange Dry Index is an objective measure of cargo shipping prices for moving raw materials such as iron ore, grain and coal by sea.

Shipping raw materials reflects real-world demand for manufactured goods. Brazil would never ship 100,000 tons of iron ore to China if there was no demand for the final products to be made from that cargo.

So how is the global economy doing according to the BDI?

According to the charts on InvestmentTools.com, the BDI stood at 1,873 as of April 24. That's down 77.4% since August 1, 2008.

The good news is that the BDI has trickled up for 3 of the first 4 months this year. The BDI suggested a decline in global shipping demand in March, which was followed by a small percentage uptick in April.

Economists sometimes describe the BDI as a leading indicator for global financial recovery. Some investors even claim that the BDI can predict stock market trends, including the prices for the S&P 500.

After studying the charts for both the BDI and the S&P, one could say that there is a general correlation between the two. However, these indices have gone up or down at the same time in only 4 of the past 8 months since August 1, 2008 - and for by widely varying percentages. (The percentage increase or decrease since August 1, 2008 is shown within brackets below.)

• April 24: BDI was 1,873 (-77.4%); S&P500 was 866.23 (-31.3%).
• April 1: BDI was 1,574 (-81%); S&P500 was 811.08 (-35.6%)
• March 2: BDI was 2,014 (-75.7%); S&P500 was 700.82 (-44.4%)
• February 2: BDI was 1,099 (-86.7%); S&P500 was 825.44 (-34.5%)
• January 2: BDI was 773 (-90.7%); S&P500 was 931.80 (-26.1%)
• December 1: BDI was 700 (-91.5%); S&P500 was 816.21 (-35.2%)
• November 3: BDI was 827 (-90%); S&P500 was 966.3 (-23.3%)
• October 1: BDI was 3,025 (-63.%); S&P500 was 1,161.04 (-7.9%)
• September 1: BDI was 6,691 (-19.2%); S&P500 was 1,277.58 (+1.4%)
• August 1: BDI was 8,280; S&P500 was 1,260.31.

Update: BDI hit 2,544 on May 15, 2009.

Posted by Daniel Workman

An MBA would make a very weak candidate as an online International Trade author, at least according to Toronto Star columnist Carol Goar.

Goar cites three major complaints about MBA graduates from Andrew Kidd, vice-president at the world's largest commercial real estate and property management firm CB Richard Ellis.

First, MBAs don't know how to present researched information in a clear and readable form. So while they can research information competently, MBAs generally lack the skills to analyze the data then effectively communicate their findings to an audience with an urgent need to know.

Second, immature MBAs haven't learned how to intelligently deal with adversity. Failure paralyzes them, so that they give up far too quickly instead of using setbacks as lessons learned for self-improvement.

Finally, MBAs have bad attitudes. They try so hard to look confident that most end up projecting arrogance and false bravado.

Of course, each of these 3 weaknesses show a lack critical skills necessary for credible online journalism these days. For example, rule number 1 at Suite101 is to walk the talk by consistently producing high-quality, well-researched articles that are Search Engine Optimized (SEO).

Back in 2005, an MBA from a Florida university ran this International Trade site. She averaged about 500 page views a month. Her articles and blogs were far too theoretical and scattered to attract and retain a growing but time-stressed global audience.

Since then, we've written over 400 articles for Suite101, and grown our International Trade audience to 200,000 page views monthly. Yes, we have had challenges including unsuccessful articles with meagre page views and stinging criticisms. Yet we used those speed bumps to write some of our most popular articles, including World's Richest Countries and Top Internet Countries.

That's not to say that education isn't important. To the contrary, this author continuously studies practical and inexpensive courses at community college night school.

Ironically, some of my best professors are moonlighting university professors from countries from around the globe.

And they all enjoy reading our Suite101 articles.

Posted by Daniel Workman

National Post's Jonathan Chevreau has written about the Cycle of Market Emotions in the past, but never has it been more pertinent than during the current global financial crisis.

Jon's Wealthy Boomer blog presents a compelling graphic for an investor's emotional cycle, one that we partition into a set of lists below.

Phase 1 – Upswing

• Optimism
• Excitement
• Thrill (Wow, I feel great about this investment)
• Euphoria (Point of maximum financial risk).

Phase 2 – Downswing

• Anxiety
• Denial (temporary setback, I’m a long-term investor)
• Fear
• Desperation.

Phase 3 – Worsening

• Panic
• Capitulation (maybe the markets just aren’t for me)
• Despondency
• Depression (point of maximum opportunity).

Phase 4 – Recovery

• Hope
• Relief
• Optimism.

Remarkably, the Market Emotions Cycle graphic closely mirrors the performance of one of Canada's most respected yet battered financial stocks: Manulife Financial (MFC on TSX).

The 6-month graph for MFC suggests that Manulife investors are teetering between Desperation (late phase 2 in our analysis) and Despondency (late phase 3). The 30% downward spike on already depressed price levels in the first week of March 2009 may well trace the Market Emotions Cycle's panic reaction.

With its exposure to the leading U.S. financial engine, not to mention a 10% dividend, hope then relief for Manulife stock may be on the horizon later on this year.

Posted by Daniel Workman

With all the gloom and doom we read in the newspapers these days, it could be a lot worse. Take low interest rates - a good thing for mortgage holders.

Does anyone remember mortgage rates at 22% back in 1981?

Below is a summary of posted mortgage rates in Canada since 1980.

Canadian Mortgage Rates in 1980s

Canadian Mortgage Rates in 1990s

Canadian Mortgage Rates in 2000s

Can everyone see why I'm happy to renew my mortgage in July 2009? That's my silver lining.

Posted by Daniel Workman

This past Monday and Tuesday, RE/MAX Realty hosted a kickstart rally that highlighted real estate sales opportunities in Southern Ontario. Most participants were upbeat about opportunities to sell even in a down market, subject to some hard sales work.

Below are online questions that registration staff posed to attendees.

1. Which of the following do you see as your biggest business challenge for 2009?

• The economy
• Too few motivated buyers
• Listings not selling
• Commission cutting
• Cost of doing business
• Your own personal money management
• Other.

2. Do you use the Internet for your job?

• Don't know
• Sometimes
• My focus on the Web is on sellers
• Not a priority.

3. My priority for career development in 2009 is:

• Developing more referrals
• Creating a business plan
• Keeping my continuing education credits up to date
• Ways to prospect business
• Financial planning and cashflow
• Script and skill development
• No plans.

The most popular answer for question 1. was The economy. For question 2. most answered that they used the Internet to focus on sales listings, while Creating a business plan was at the of the list for question 3.

Posted by Daniel Workman

In Fall 2008, Export Development Canada (EDC) conducted a survey that asked 850 small, medium and large Canadian exporters about their confidence in sales prospects.

The results? Canada's Trade Confidence Index (TCI) score fell to its lowest level in EDC history.

Given the financial crises that accelerated this past November, it's no surprise that exporters were pessimistic about all aspects of their future sales potential. Unlike the previous 5 years, exporters suffered the biggest single drop in confidence for domestic demand. Export businesses often generate additional revenues from sales at home. Looking forward in 2009, 57% of survey respondents expect that Canadian market demand will fall.

In addition, 25% of survey participants were also gloomy about short-term export sales. Even though 39% of participants were upbeat about selling more exports, that percentage is 8% lower than just 6 months earlier in 2008.

The most troubling survey finding is that 64% Canadian exporters visualize a worsening global economy. Perhaps this comes down to "if America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold."

But there is a silver lining for Canada even if anemic sales growth in more traditional markets like the U.S. is expected to continue. Perhaps because of recent double-digit export gains, one-third of Canadian exporters expect improved opportunities to sell to emerging markets like China, Brazil, India and Eastern Europe.

If Canada can build on its comparative advantages in resources from clean water to uranium as well as in information and communication technology, the Great White North is on its way to even greater long-term trade success.