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Daniel Workman's BlogPosted by Daniel Workman At the time, FedEx stock (FDX on NYSE) was trading at around US$107. Since then FDX has plummeted 14% to $92. There's been some bad news, like the $319 million that the company has to be pay the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in taxes and penalties as the result of a decision that FedEx Ground staff are employees and not independent contractors. According to Corridore, the major risk to FedEx revenue and profit growth in 2008 is a major economic slowdown coupled with a possible price war against competitors like UPS. Corridore is more optimistic. He proposes that FedEx revenues will grow about 7% in 2008 down slightly from 9% in 2007. However, double-digit gains in international revenues are expected led by exports out of China. In 2007, FedEx won authority to operate 30 weekly flights into China. The company plans to grow its delivery business within China from 220 to 320 cities within 5 years. FedEx international business serves 220 countries and generates about 40% of overall company revenues. Those faster-growing revenues are counter-balanced by two major service contracts with the gargantuan U.S. Postal Service effective to 2010 for air transport of Priority, Express and First Class mail. With annual revenues of over US$37 billion, FedEx has some 5,000 drop boxes at post offices in 340 American metropolitain locations. Posted by Daniel Workman Critics also point to the higher Canadian loonie harming exports from Ontario and Quebec manufacturers. Railways are doing better, but truckers struggle with overcapacity in challenging freight environment. We looked at risks to TransForce Income Fund, Canada's largest trucking firm, in our article Lower Trade Slows Canadian Trucker. We concluded that long-term debt to pay for acquisitions is the predominant threat particularly if interest rates rise. However, TransForce has established credentials, growing company revenues profitably even in challenging global trade conditions. The company's dominant position in the Canadian trucking industry bears witness to management's formidable track record. Late in November, TransForce acquired 63-year-old trucking firm Thibodeau Group of Companies with its 815 employees. Thibodeau also comes with 400 diesel-powered tractors, 1100 trailers and 14 trucking terminals in Ontario, Quebec and the United States. Thibodeau generated some US$75 million in revenues in 2006. Canada's largest trucker is using the global trade downturn to take over smaller competitors when prices are falling. The Thibodeau deal is expected to add $0.05 to TransForce earnings. Posted by Daniel Workman Many countries depend on immigrant workers to maintain their Gross Domestic Products. Countries like india, China, Mexico, France and the Philippines lead the world in supplying migrant workers. Japan's government has a strict policy that discourages immigrant labour. As the Japanese population grows older, Japan is experience a shortage of able-bodied workers from the homeland. The answer? The Japanese are developing sophisticated robots to pick up the slack. And this trend extends to professions including dentistry. A Japanese humanoid responds in pain if a dental student hits a nerve while drilling on teeth in the robot's mouth. Robots are performing a wide range of repetitive tasks in manufacturing sectors, led by the automotive industry. Honda is a major investor in robot technology. Humanoids require no salary nor benefits. Breaks, vacations and holidays are of little concern. Robot technology should improve Japan's productivity. From an international trade perspective, Japan may best profit from its humanoid workforce by exporting its robotic products to nations overdependent on immigrant workers. Posted by Daniel Workman Last month, we looked at the world's leading tea export nations. But which countries drink and export the most of the hot liquid? For answers, we look to the Intergovernmental Group on Tea. The IGT is part of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. India maintains its position as the world's number one tea consuming nation. Below are FAO statistics for 2004 on tea drinking.
The list below shows the top tea importing nations.
Posted by Daniel Workman Fast sell-outs for 13 of 15 shows in London and Manchester, England pushed promoters to expand their Spice celebrity offerings to 45 shows in 9 countries. The kick-off Spice reunion concert was performed to a standing-room-only crowd in Vancouver (population 1.8 million), a key west-coast shipping port. Also sold out are 2 spectacles in another major Canadian trade hub: Toronto (4.4 million) on February 3 and 4. Seven of the 16 Spice extravaganzas in U.S. cities are before Christmas, which should maximize sales for Spice Girl merchandise. Fans can buy a wide range of goods, ranging from Spice baseball caps, books, DVD videos games, hankerchief sets, iTunes downloads, make-up sets, plates, purses, removable tatoos, ring tones and shoulder bags. T-shirts continue to be the most popular Spice Girls product sold online and at the concerts. Starting on December 8, three Spice Girl concerts are at the Mandalay Bay Event Center in Las Vegas, Nevada - a major international tourist destination. Both Canadian and American gaming enthusiasts can buy tickets online from Ticketmaster, with prices ranging from US$75.50 to $133.25. Other Spice Girl concerts will take place in some of the most heavily populated American cities.
International venues include gigs in Argentina (Buenes Aires) and Australia (Sidney), 3 shows in China (Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai), as well as concerts in Germany (Cologne), South Africa (Cape Town) and Spain (Madrid). The musical invasion of global trade superpower China marks the girl band’s first performance in the People’s Republic, just in time for the upcoming 2008 Olympics in Beijing. Posted by Daniel Workman First of all, I like writing about the apple trade because I enjoy apples - particularly Royal Galas and Empires. Ontario's most famous apple remains the McIntosh, which has a tarter taste. I live near Toronto's St. Lawrence Market, so I enjoy year-round access to Ontario-grown produce. I was delighted to read Jennifer Bain's article The darling of the apple world (Toronto Star, November 28/07). Jennifer reveals that the province of Ontario produces 42% of Canadian apples. Bain also points out that Ontario ships apples to the United Kingdom, Europe, the Caribbean and Mexico. Still, Canada's central province imports from apple producing countries including China, the U.S. and Australia. For example, Granny Smiths stocked in Ontario supermarkets are likely from Australia where it's a native brand. Similarly, Pink Lady apples are typically imported. Honeycrisp and Ambrosia are two of Ontario's fastest-growing apples. Both are sweet, firm and crisp. But the top-selling Ontario apples continue to be the McIntosh (30.2 million pounds in 2006), Red Delicious (16.3 million pounds) and Empire (15.5 million pounds). Hopefully, the sweeter-tasting Honeycrisps and Ambrosians will spearhead a rise in Ontario's apple exports. Now if we could only get the Canadian loonie back to its former discounted self against the U.S. dollar ... Posted by Daniel Workman Old boy that I am, my childhood Christmas gifts ranged from a box of Cracker Jacks to a GI Joe doll. The caramel corn probably did more for my dentist's pocketbook, although every box had a surprise prize. Today's gifts are a lot more high-tech. Take this year's finalists for best Christmas gift ideas. Based on an online survey described at squido.com, the list below is ordered from highest to lowest prices.
My personal favourite is Pleo, a one week-old robotic dinosaur. Pleo is a virtual pet that interacts with your family – moving organically, expressing emotion, autonomously exploring and responding to the outside world. Each Pleo has a unique personality that develops based on Pleo’s life experiences at your home. Owners can go to a home site to learn training tips and download new enhancements. Posted by Daniel Workman According to the Toronto Star wire services on November 20, the 3-month delivery price for zinc fell by nearly 10% to as low as C$2,270 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange. Zinc's price is half the record rate of $4,580 on November 10, 2006. The principal reason for the glut of Chinese zinc exports is a rumour that China's government may rescind a 5% tax rebate on zinc exports. Zinc suppliers from the People's Republic are scurrying to flood global markets with their stockpiled zinc while the 5% tax rebate is still in effect. We may well be seeing a situation where Chinese exporters are contributing to a 10% decrease in prices that they receive for their zinc shipments - just to lock in a 5% tax rebate. China is the world's largest supplier of zinc. However, not just Chinese zinc miners are suffering. Canada's Teck Comenico is a leading zinc producer that has seen its class B share price fall by 20% over the past month. Once Chinese zinc inventories are depleted, the laws of supply and demand should kick in. The global price for zinc should move up, making international trade more profitable for zinc miners like Teck Comenico. Short-term pain should lead to long-term gain. Posted by Daniel Workman In the province of Ontario, beef is a C$1.2 billion industry. More than 19,000 producers work in Ontario's beef industry. Another 13,000 people directly or indirectly owe their jobs to Ontario beef. According to Ian Urquhart of the Toronto Star (Beef sector burned by hot loonie, November 14/07), Canadian beef farmers face 4 major obstacles.
Beef farmers are now losing more than C$400 per head of cattle. That amounts to a loss of about $100 million in just 6 months. Given the pain felt by Canadian beef farmers, government subsidies may be the only way to stem the losses. The World Trade Organization frowns on government meddling. But this is a genuine emergency. Posted by Daniel Workman An estimated 200 million Chinese watched the November 11 NBA regular season game televised from Houston. That number dwarfs the 34 million viewers for the NFL's Superbowl-calibre teams, the New England Patriots versus the Indianapolis Colts. The presence of Chinese giant Yao Ming on the Houston Rockets facing off against Oriental rookie titan Yi Jianlian on the Milwaukee Bucks roster no doubt boosted interest from the People's Republic audience. This interest no doubt will translate into huge NBA merchandise sales in China. Based in China, top global trade site alibaba.com lists 80 buying leads for NBA products. The Chinese audience solidifies the NBA's position as sports' leading global brand. China itself hopes to improve its standing as a global brand via a mutually beneficial relationship with the NBA. In fact, some pundits write that basketball may introduce an international version of soccer's immensely popular World Cup. China can use the 2008 Beijing Olympics to elevate its standing as a key international business audience and sponsor for the National Basketball Association. Posted by Daniel Workman A quick search on alibaba.com, the leading global trade site, calls up over 60,000 selling leads for stretched canvas oil paintings, pop paintings, canvas paintings and landscape paintings. A mouse click on the Products tab immediately lists over 35,000 art painting products. The third tab entitled Suppliers presents company profiles plus contact links to some 4,500 art suppliers. Many are located in China. Clicking on the Buyers tab gives a wish list of art products that businesses want to buy. Desired products range from child paintings to decoration paintings to artifact paintings. The United States, Canada, China and Pakistan show up on the first page of buyers. Another tab finds art-related tradeshows around the globe. Registrants can list their art products to trade on alibaba.com for free. Another benefit is an automated email feature that notifies registrants whenever a new art product or supplier is listed on the site. Of course, buying artwork masters is a completely different international trade game. Infoplease has published a list of the 10 most expensive paintings ever auctioned.
Posted by Daniel Workman On the alibaba trade site, a search on the keyword 'honey' calls up about 3,500 selling leads across all categories and countries. Many of the suppliers are premium Gold Suppliers from China. Each supplier has a brief profile and email contact information. Some have a company video. Our recent article Top Honey Exporting Countries reveals global concerns with contaminated Chinese honey. Other sellers on alibaba.com include Vietgo Joint Stock Company which markets Vietnamese sunflower honey, apple honey and flower powder honey. Vietnamese honey is typically dark coloured, which indicates that it is produced from nectar that bees extract from dark-coloured flowers. Alibaba presents a list of hyperlinked keywords that enable Web visitors to narrow their search for specific honey products. Those keywords include: natural honey, bee honey, pure honey, honey products, acacia honey, organic honey, amber honey, fresh honey, ela honey, chinese honey, australian honey, raw honey, natural bee honey, flower honey, la honey, honey food, white honey, natural raw honey, cole honey, comb honey, sunflower honey, vitex honey, milkvetch honey, argentinian honey, pure natural honey, bottled honey and rape honey. Another tab on alibaba.com lists almost 3,000 honey suppliers from around the world, but mostly from China. This should come as no surprise given that China is the world's largest honey producer, and the fact that alibaba.com is based in China. Alibaba also has a sister site specifically for Chinese companies. A third tab shows 150 companies looking to buy honey-related products from around the globe. Buying countries include China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Czech Republic, the United Kingdom and the United States. International trade entrepreneurs can use alibaba.com to develop price lists and organize shipments for honey products from around the world. Posted by Daniel Workman Since 2002, Research In Motion (RIM) has experienced many delays from Chinese regulators empowered to approve sale of RIM's BlackBerry in the People's Republic. RIM, based in the Canadian city of Waterloo near Toronto, has partnered with international telecommunications giant Alcatel-Lucent. This partnership gives RIM a gateway to the requisite Chinese infrastructure and distribution networks key to selling a complete set of wireless email services customized for the People's Republic market. Previously, most expatriates would buy BlackBerrys outside of China which would then be run on a network for which they weren't designed. That same cohort of expatriates is expected to propel demand for approved BlackBerry technology customized for Chinese systems. France's Alcatel-Lucent has achieved certification to sell the BlackBerry 8700 model in China via a joint agreement with TCL Communications, a major Chinese mobile device maker that also markets Alcatel's branded mobile handsets. Partners RIM and Alcatel-Lucent jointly announced that the first BlackBerry shipments to China should be in the hands of business customers by this Christmas. Posted by Daniel Workman According to Bloomberg News, poor countries may soon have access to life-saving generic versions of patented drugs. This news must give hope to African nations ravaged by AIDS and other developing countries threatened by an outbreak of bird flu. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has proposed an international trade treaty amendment that will enable developing nations that lack a robust pharmaceutical drug industry to import generic drugs. Under the amendment, participating poor countries needn't fear patent lawsuits from large multinational drug makers. In late October 2007, the European Union assembly's trade committee accepted the WTO's amendment. This endorsement by the European parliamentary committe gives credibility to the WTO's efforts to pass the treaty amendment. It's important to understand, however, that the full parliamentary assembly has to approve the amendment. If so, the EU will be on its way to changing the WTO's Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights. Which global generic drug companies are positioned to gain should drug patents in developing nations be waived? Winners will include Teva Pharmaceuticals and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories. Posted by Daniel Workman Many consultants can tell you how to act or what not to do often well after you make a mistake or miss an opportunity. Deloitte is a management consultant that practices the proactive leadership style that the company preaches. Below is a list of 10 tips for effective global trade leadership from Deloitte's annual meeting at the Metro Convention Centre in Toronto during the first week of October.
Whether you're a trade consultant in India or an exporter in Chile, these principles will propel you to success in business projects around the world. Source: Robert Sirman, Director of the Canadian Council for the Arts (June 2007). Posted by Daniel Workman A number of factors conspired to trigger the rapid rise in the Canadian currency exchange rate, namely:
The strong loonie makes Canadian exports more expensive on international trade markets. Most Canadian companies that depends on exports are experiencing slowing demand from their global trade customers. Partly hard hit are manufacturing firms in Central Ontario including Toronto. Forestry companies like Tembec have had to temporarily halt its timber sales to foreign markets. Prices for Canadian lumber products are so depressed that, when combined with the double-whammy of the higher Canadian currency exchange, Tembec is losing money by exporting timber to the U.S. Like most concerns in international trade, a high loonie has a silver lining. The other side of the coin is that Canadian importers are enjoying more bang for their buck. Similary, Canuck travellers to the U.S. can buy more products and services during their visits. It will be interesting to see whether the stronger Canadian dollar leads to more Canadians going abroad for medical services including cosmetic surgery. In the meantime, the jury is still out as to whether this is worth the estimated 80,000 manufacturing jobs lost in the Toronto area alone since 2002. Posted by Daniel Workman Global sugar production is at such a high level that top sugar exporters like Brazil, Thailand and Australia are having trouble finding customers willing to buy their supplies. Sugar importing countries now have their choice of suppliers, and are turning to the exporting nation with the lowest prices. Sugar is used in many processed foods and beverages. Lower sugar prices provide a counterbalance to higher costs for wheat and other commodities affected by recent droughts around the globe. Like many issues in international trade, bad news for exporters is good news for importers. A surplus of sugar will cut into the profits of sugar exporting countries, but reduces inflationary pressures in importing nations. And like other international trade issues, ultimately we make decisions based on cold, hard statistics. No debate about whether white sugar is unhealthy, just numbers on exports and imports with a column in a spreadsheet with corresponding sugar prices. Right now, those sugary numbers look good for consumers and importers. Sugar supplies and prices go through cycles. Without a compelling substitute for sugar, prices and supplies will work themselves out in the long term as farmers in producing countries plant fewer sugar plants. Instead, they may substitute scarcer, and therefore higher priced, commodities like wheat. Leading sugar cane producers are Brazil, India, China, Thailand, Pakistan and Mexico. Posted by Daniel Workman William Foreman of the Associated Press has written an intriguing article 'China flexes its financial muscle' (published September 2, 2007 in the Toronto Star). Here are some interesting points from Foreman's article, which reinforce the fact that China is emerging as a dominant global power in international trade.
While China currently imports commercial aircraft from large multinationals like Boeing, many U.S. workers fear that the Chinese will copy Boeing technology to eventually manufacture commercial aircraft in China. In long-term world trade, China going up can mean America going down. I don't know about you, but I'm seriously considering learning how to speak (and write International Trade articles in) Mandarin. Posted by Daniel Workman Headquartered in Geneva, the IATA represents over 240 airlines around the world. Those carriers operate 94% of scheduled international flights Currently, 84% of passengers on IATA airlines fly without paper tickets. Those travellers are registered on computer systems, and simply check-in at the airport with identification documents in hand. The global airlines organization points out that China, one of the world's fastest-growing markets for air travel and host of the 2008 Olympic Games, will likely have the first paper-free, airline ticketing system by the end of 2007. The elimination of paper tickets will save airliners about Cdn$9 per passenger and save some 50,000 mature trees each year. Low-cost airline carriers like WestJet and larger flyers like Air Canada already have paper-free systems in place. Posted by Daniel Workman Not all fruits and vegetables on our lists below make great exports or imports. The reason? Some of these products have comparatively short shelf lives, and would spoil during long trans-Atlantic delivery routes. Also, the cost of shipping vast quantities of the heavier fruits and vegetables would be prohibitive. Still it's interesting to consider the leading food crops from around the world. Top 10 Fruit Crops
Top 10 Vegetable Crops
And yes, tomatoes are considered fruits and technically sugar cane is a vegetable. Just don't ask me how to pronounce the word tomato. Posted by Daniel Workman Two American entrepreneurs lead the list of men with the world's highest net worth. Warren Buffet's insights about global demand for Coca Cola are behind his investment success. Microsoft is found on more than 90% of computers worldwide. Russian oil exports are key to the revived Soviet Union economy.
Let's take a look at the world's richest women,.
International trade does seem to fuel the personal wealth of the world's richest people. As a feature writer, my question is: will my international trade articles translate into great wealth for me? Note: Forbes magazine, "The World's Richest People", 2006 is the source for the above lists. Posted by Daniel Workman International trade is a mosaic of major market trends and specialty niches. But plastic surgery in South Korea? Well, yes ... and actually it makes perfect business sense. What has caught the attention of international tourists is a group of South Korean entertainers who, after cosmetic surgery, radiate with remarkably soft and natural-looking skin. Those same tourists want the same flat stomachs and rounded cheekbones of the South Korean stars. South Korea has 80 cosmetic surgery clinics in its so-called Beauty Town (Busan). Korean surgeons are renown for their surgical expertise and glamour results, specializing in "double eyelids" created by inserting a crease in the upper lid that make the eyes seem larger. South Korea's overseas promotion project has enlisted the services of Korean celebrities to further popularize cosmetic procedures, and expects 13,000 tourists to visit one of South Korea's 1,400 esthetic plastic surgeons this year. The price is right for high-quality Korean surgery. Eyelid operations cost about US$1,100 in Korea compared to $1,700 in Thailand, $1,900 in Japan and $4,700 in the United States. Just how popular is South Korean cosmetic surgery? Well, even South Korean president Roh Moo Hyun and First Lady Kwon Yang Look have had what they refer to as "corrective surgery" in 2005. While Stephen Harper and George W may not be the next to step up to the cosmetic surgery plate, South Korea has surely established a profitable niche in the international plastic surgery tourism. Posted by Daniel Workman Critics say that both India and Japan need to strengthen their trade links to counterbalance China's growing global influence in international trade. The Japanese Prime Minister is targeting a bilateral trade pact with India in return for discussions on Japan's support for a US$90 billion infrastructure project in India. That project would significantly improve freight lines, power stations and access to ports and airports in the corridor between India's capital New Delhi and its financial center Mumbai. India's top exports include cotton household furnishings & clothing, diamonds and jewellery. Examples of Indian imports are civilian aircraft, chemical fertilizers and telecommunications equipment. Japan's top exports include cars, industrial machinery and computer accessories. Leading Japanese imports are medicinal equipment, medicinal equipment and corn. Currently, India is a relatively small trading partner for Japan. Therefore, a stronger trade agreement between the two countries can pay significant economic dividends. Posted by Daniel Workman Shortly after poisoned dog food recalls, the safety of Chinese exports is once again in the headlines. Over 83 types of toys including best-selling Big Bird, Elmo, Dora and Diego characters are suspected of having excessive amounts of lead in their paint. This has forced Fisher-Price to announce a worldwide recall of 967,000 toys made by a Chinese vendor and sold in the U.S. between May and August. Mattel reports that about 20 of these toys were sold in Canada during the past 3 months. Fisher-Price's General Manager, David Allmark, said that the lead problem was detected by the company's internal investigation. What's called into question here is the fact that China doesn't have stringent quality controls in place. Some international trade consultants say that importing countries may soon develop their own procedures to test the safety of imports. At the recent North American trade summit in Montebello, Quebec, all three political leaders indicated that the safety of imported goods is a major concern. Canadian Prime Minister Harper, U.S. President Bush and Mexican President Calderon promised to work with trading partners to identify and stop unsafe food and products before they enter their countries. Shifting the burden for safe production measures solely onto importers involves far too much cost and is inefficient. The Chinese government needs to take an active role in ensuring that safety comes first - both for the workers and for global consumers. Expect to see a big downturn in Mattel and Fisher-Price sales as worried parents do everything in their power to protect their children. And there is at least one Chinese exporter that is sure to lose a major contract with Mattel and Fisher-Price. Amid the recall, the Chinese toy-factory owner hung himself. One of the owner's friends had supplied the dangerous paint. Posted by Daniel Workman There are 45.8 million baby boomer households in America. A boomer household has an average income of US$56,500, and spends about $45,000 per year. Boomers aged 51 to 59 spend 11% less on children's items than younger boomers aged 41 to 50. Older boomers spend:
Over 50% of American baby boomers live in nine states: California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and New Jersey. Baby boomers represent more than 30% of the population in the following seventeen states: Alaska (33.3%), New Hampshire (32.8%), Vermont (32.2%), Maine (31.8%), Maryland (31.6%), Colorado (31.4%), Connecticut (31.2%), Virginia (31.1%), Wyoming (31.0%), Washington (30.9%), New Jersey (30.8%), Montana (30.7%), Massachusetts (30.5%), Minnesota (30.3%), Oregon (30.2%), West Virginia (30.0%), and Wisconsin (30.0%). This blog presents independent is based on data presented in MetLife’s Mature Market Institute ‘A Profile of American Baby Boomers’ . Posted by Daniel Workman Top 25 medical technology companies sell products used by doctors, surgeons, dentists and other medical professionals around the world. Top 25 Medical Technology Companies (based on 2006 sales)
These medical technology companies typically employ a team of sales personnel who are expected to be experts on their range of medical products. Sales representatives spend most of their time selling medical solutions to clients. Sources for this Article This article presents independent insights from data presented in the Stryker Fact Book 2006-2007 on stryker.com. Posted by Daniel Workman Canada has only 2 major airlines, Air Canada and WestJet. Competition in the Canadian duopoly is limited to the duopolists matching prices, taking care not to undercut the other. Canadians shouldn't expect an air travel price war any time soon. Still, the two airliners are matching several discounted trips while offering bargains on some one-way trips not duplicated by the other. Consider WestJet's 35%-off discounts for one-way fares from Toronto. WestJet airline prices for each trip match discount sales from Air Canada.
In addition, WestJet is offering one-way discounts from Toronto to other cities that are not part of an Air Canada promotion.
WestJet's sale applies to travel up to mid-December 2007 and must be booked by August 15, 2007 - a week before Air Canada's deadline. WestJet's discounted tickets target 14 Canadian and American cities. Air Canada has a larger flight network and extends its one-way sale to 25 cities. Only 7 of those overlap with West Jet 's destinations. Still, some critics say that Air Canada is cutting into shareholder profits by sparring with one-way ticket discounts. WestJet's costs are over 40% less than Air Canada's. WestJet employs non-union workers, flies to a select set of destinations and operates one aircraft type (737) which cuts down on training and maintenance costs. In contrast, Air Canada has a unionized workforce, uses a fleet of multiple aircraft types, and serves a global route network. Who is going to win the battle of Canadian airline discounts? In 2006, Air Canada earned US$27 million (CDN$25 million) from revenues of US$11 billion (CDN$10 billion). In contrast, WestJet earned US$124.7 million (CDN$114.7 million) on revenues of US$1.7 billion (CDN$ 1.6 billion). Air Canada is more known for first class airline tickets; Westjet is associated with cheap business class airline tickets and has recently signed a business deal with Wal-Mart. WestJet's competitive advantages point to more consumers visiting its website to find cheap airfares on WestJet.com. The bottom line is that WestJet's promotions garner higher profits than Air Canada's inexpensive one-way airfares can generate. Therefore, WestJet can offer more cost-effective flights. Posted by Daniel Workman Back in 2003, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) introduced microprocessors that outperformed Intel chips. Intel started to lose market share around the world. Regulators from the European Union (EU) say that Intel responded with unfair business practices, namely:
But isn't it good for international trade clients if an influential parts supplier like Intel lowers prices? The answer is no, not over the longer term. Sure, buyers will enjoy lower costs in the short-term. However, predatory pricing forces competitors to sell their products at below average costs. Eventually smaller rivals go out of business. That's bad for international trade clients because fewer competitors means less choice and a slower pace for innovation should Intel assume a monopoly positon in the world trade of computer chips. Intel has until mid-October 2007 to respond. Then, the EU's executive branch will make a decision that could fine Intel up to 10% of its global revenues for each year that the company broke fair trade laws. According to Aoife White from the Associated Press, Intel's worldwide sales were US$36 billion in 2006. Posted by Daniel Workman Wal-Mart has learned some painful lessons in international trade. Last year, the retailer exited Germany after traditional German shoppers rejected the company's big-box American ways. Wal-Mart executives made their decision based on low profitability that didn't appear likely to improve anytime soon. Shopper culture doesn't seem to an issue in China, where Wal-Mart is intently focused on tapping the accelerating personal wealth among the country's 1.3 billion people. Currently, Wal-Mart has 84 stores in 46 Chinese cities. Wal-Mart now wants to expand its reach into smaller cities where few, if any, superstores compete. In North America, smaller cities become dependent on Wal-Mart's broad range of products and one-stop shopping business model. As usual, Wal-Mart has set lofty goals. The company plans to become a market leader, dominating 20% of China's retail market. Posted by Daniel Workman Citigroup is the world's biggest bank. Revenues from Citigroup operations outside the United States rose 34% to some US$13.5 billion, while net income from international markets surged by 35% to US$3.3. billion. Record revenues from Asian and European markets propelled both achievements, which surpassed analyst expectations. A financial superstar in global trade, Citigroup does business in more than 100 countries. Services range from credit cards and consumer banking to merger consulting and stock underwriting. The New York-based company set the foundation for stellar international results by making some US$10 billion in acquisitions focused on faster-growing geographies. Citigroup is well-diversified to take advantage of superior financial industry opportunities around the world. Ironically, Citigroup's share price (C on NYSE) has declined to around US$47 on July 27. The stock has a 4.4% dividend. This presents an international trade investment opportunity of a different type, as in buying a quality stock at a low price. Posted by Daniel Workman The 2007 edition of Internet Retailer's Top 500 Guide that ranks and profiles the 500 largest e-retailers in the U.S. is now available. Web-based retailing has grown into a US$135-billion industry. Here's a sneak preview of pertinent facts for our international trade audience. Top Ten Retail Web Sites (based on 2006 online sales)
While there are tens of thousands of retail web sites operating in America, the Top 500 e-retailers in 2006 accounted for 61% of all online sales. A total of 145 (or 29%) the Top 500 e-retail businesses in the U.S are owned by store-based retail chains, 89 (or 18%) by catalog and direct-marketing firms, 42 (or 8%) by consumer branded manufacturers and 224 (or 45%) by the so-called pure plays or web-only retailers. Because they control an even larger share of the biggest sites, retail chains accounted for 41% of online sales reported by the Top 500 in 2006, catalogers 14%, manufacturers 14% and pure plays 31%. Of the 500 e-retailers ranked in the Top 500 Guide, retail chains and web-only merchants grew their online sales faster than anyone else, achieving growth rates of 23.4% and 23.6% respectively. By comparison, catalogers in the Top 500 grew their e-retail sales by 21.2%% and consumer branded manufacturers by only 9.1%. In percentage terms, Lumber Liquidators achieved the best e-retail sales growth among the Top 500 with a 400% gain. Meanwhile eCOST.com turned in the worst performance with a decline of 41% in online sales. Hardware/Home Improvement sector grew fastest online with a 42% growth rate in 2006. Apparel/accessories boasted 2006 web sales that rose by 41% to almost $10 billion, proving that shoppers have no qualms with buying fashions online. Posted by Daniel Workman Some analysts chose to focus on the fact that Hershey made only US$3.6 million or a penny a share for the latest quarter ending July 1. Sure that's a steep decline from the US$97.9 million profit or 41 cents a share in the same period last year. But the fact is that Hershey has invested heavily to upgrade its production lines and to promote a growing portfolio of over 50 world-class brands of chocolate. Hershey is also building up its online chocolate sales, which also takes both time and money. Excluding what Hershey spent on changes to its production and supply chain processes, the company would have made $81.7 million or 35 cents a share. Revenue was consistent at $1.05 billion. Face it. Hershey is changing its focus to premium dark chocolate made from the best cocoa beans imported from the top cocoa exporting countries. Chocolates with higher percentage cocoa content demand loftier prices from the growing cohort of wealthy baby boomers around the world. It should not be surprising that a gargantua like Hershey needs time to transition its well-established brands to the more sophisticated tastes of premium dark chocolate lovers. That Hershey has announced an entry into the fast-growing gourmet chocolate market with Starbucks-branded chocolates shows foresight into, and the ability to keep up with, worldwide demand for premium dark chocolate. Posted by Daniel Workman Emerson added that the new trade deal signed in mid-June between Canada & India will enable the Great White North to open up other trade markets and therefore be less dependent on the United States. Canada ships about 80% of its exports to the U.S. However, there are concerns that the declining U.S. dollar against Canadian currency will lead to significant decreases in the value of Canadian exports. It is true that the deal with India could increase the value of trade between the two countries from the current US$3.3 billion to around US$18 billion within 5 years. And, as the Toronto Star article Trade deal with India 'a natural' for Canada (Prithi Yelaja, June 18, 2007) points out, Canada is home to about 1 million Indo-Canadians. This supposedly gives Canada a bridge to India, although one can argue that the Canadian mosaic has always been a bridge to the many countries from which its people emigrated. The problem is that the new trade agreement gives priority nation status to India, but not to Canada. Further, the deal does not address the issue of outsourced jobs from Canada to India and in particular IT outsourcing opportunities. In international trade, the most effective leaders negotiate win-win deals for the longer term. The latest agreement with India once again shows that Canadian politicians do not understand the difference between taking advantage of a trade opportunity and being taken advantage of. Posted by Daniel Workman Many travellers visit Air Canada's website to book the lowest-costing airfares. Booking online at AirCanada.com saves consumers at least US$22 (CDN$21) per passenger. In addition, the site enables visitors to reserve discounted hotel rooms, car rentals and city attractions. Partly to take advantage of the high loonie, Canadian tourists from Toronto are the target of a recent Air Canada promotion offering discounts to major American cities. The sale applies to travel up to mid-December 2007 and must be booked by August 22, 2007. Below are Air Canada's one-way Tango airfares from Toronto to the Canadian cities shown:
Below are Air Canada's one-way Tango or Tango Plus airfares from Toronto to the American cities shown:
Air Canada is also focusing on each-way disount fares to international destinations. However, these promotions require round-trip tickets be purchased. Availability of discounts for international trips vary. This seasonal promotion come at a time when Air Canada is forced to offer travel discounts as a means to feed its international routes with Canadian passengers. The airline industry in Canada is a duopoly with two major airlines, yet Air Canada faces strong price competition from WestJet particularly to and from the most heavily travelled destinations in Canada, the U.S. and the Caribbean. Do WestJet's bargain prices undercut Air Canada's? To find out, read our WestJet blog. Posted by Daniel Workman Chocolate makers like Hershey buy a mix of cocoa beans and cocoa products such as cocoa butter, cocoa liquor and cocoa powder. According to Hershey's 2006 annual report, cocoa beans are grown principally in Far Eastern, West African and South American regions around the equator. West African countries including Nigeria produce about 70% of the world's crop of cocoa beans. Civil unrest in the world's largest cocoa-producing country, the Ivory Coast, has cause volatile cocoa prices. However, analysts believe that other cocoa-exporting countries and existing inventories in importing nations provide a significant supply buffer. Besides, never in the history of international trade has any cocoa-producing country experienced a total loss of its cocoa crop and exports. In 2006, world cocoa prices traded in a range between US$0.67 and $0.749 with an annual average of $0.70. That's up slightly from an average of $0.683 in 2005 and $0.687 in 2004. However, prices showed a much smaller range ($0.074) in 2006 than in any of the other years. For example cocoa prices jumped $0.142 in 2003, for problems that apparently had a much greater downside effect than the Ivory Coast disruptions last year. Posted by Daniel Workman The biggest fish among alcoholic beverage firms thrive in world trade. Case in point: the world's largest winemaker Constellation Brands bought out Canada's ice wine king Vincor just last year. Similarly, Coors now owns Molson's, one of Canada's oldest brewers. Below is a list of international alcohol drink makers under consideration as topics for upcoming world trade articles. Stock symbols are shown within brackets. Canadian Companies
American Companies
We have already written about beer-maker Anheuser-Busch, wine giant Constellation Brands & spirits king Diageo. Please email me with which of the other alcholic beverage firms you would like to learn more about. Posted by Daniel Workman While China grows the most wheat, much of its grain crops are used to feed the Chinese people. Major international trade exporters of wheat include the United States, Canada and Australia. According to a short press release in the Toronto Star on July 3, China expects to raise its wheat production 2.2% to 107 million tonnes this year. Many Chinese farmers are planting more grain instead of more labour-intensive crops. China's above average wheat harvest may result in the People's Republic shipping more Chinese wheat exports particularly to neighbouring Asian countries. With wheat prices around a record US$6.50 per bushel, expect wheat farmers in competitive trading nations to complain about China dumping more of its grains onto the world market at prices subsidized, at least in part, by China's unusually low currency exchange rate. Wheat farmers in Canada, Australia and the U.S. now have to concern themselves not only with wheat harvests in their homelands, but also in international trade's leading wheat arena - China. Posted by Daniel Workman The U.S. Department of Agriculture's analysis World Wine Situation & Outlook (April 2005) provides a pie-chart summary of international trade's leading wine exporting countries. Italy, France, Spain, Portugal & Germany represent Old World wines which dominated about two-thirds of global wine exports in 2003. Top Wine Exporters
Wines from Australia, Chile, California, South Africa & Argentina are known as New World wines. These are the fastest-growing category both domestically and in international trade partly because wine drinkers around the world want to experience new wine taste experiences. Global wine companies like Constellation Brands plan to profit from this trend by buying up vinters from New World Wine regions around the globe. Top Wine Consumers According to vinography.com's World of Wine figures for 2003, Europeans are the leading consumers of wine drinking over two-thirds of wine consumed around the world. The United States ranks second at just over 20% of world wine consumption. Asia is a distant third with 6.6%. Luxembourg, France and Italy finish at the top for per capita wine consumption. Their per capita wine consumption of some 50 liters is almost 7 times America's per capita wine score of about 7.5 liters. Although wine consumption is tiny in China and India, both countries boast a vast marketplace of potential drinkers. Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has lowered its tariffs on imported wines from 64% to 11%. Posted by Daniel Workman G-4 members are Brazil, India, the United States and the European Union. Each member accuses the other of unfairly subsidizing prices for domestic farming sectors which reduces demand for imported farm products. While few countries directly subsidize their industries, G-4 nations point to high tariffs that constrain exports. G-4 was meeting in Potsdam, Germany. Participants hoped to negotiate compromises that would result in more international trade deals. Instead, a bitter dispute broke that pitted so-called more developed economies (U.S. & EU) against developing countries (Brazil & India). The World Trade Organization (WTO) responded by calling a meeting to resuscitate Doha global free trade talks. Many analysts doubt the effectiveness of the WTO. Many countries now negotiate directly with their trade partners, or turn to fellow-members of regional trade blocks. While G-4 negotiations are now dead, Brazil's Foreign Minister Celso Amorim believes that WTO talks in Doha may have some answers to multilateral disputes on farm subsidies and industrial tariffs. In contrast, U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab said that the U.S. will work with "any country or group willing to resolve the G-4 dispute". Reading between the lines, this comment is far from complimentary to the WTO as the final authority on trade disputes. Rather, it sounds as if the U.S. will negotiate directly with countries or regional groups if the WTO doesn't decide in its favor. Posted by Daniel Workman As described in our article International Google Ads, Google’s global advertising revenues continue their upward progress. Yet senior executives are focused on potential international trade risks that result from expanding Google's search engine businesses in foreign markets. Here are some challenges that Google faces.
As an international trade feature writer, I need to put on my thinking cap as well. Specifically, I need to figure out which search keywords will return the highest ad revenues from around the world. Any suggestions? Posted by Daniel Workman Bill Schiller's June 16, 2007 Toronto Star article Steamed by Starbucks in the Forbidden City spins an international trade horror story. Last July, we wrote about how an American company no less than WalMart had to exit from Germany because German customers could not adjust to an American-based global brand. Chinese clients may acquire the taste for Starbucks products. After all,Starbucks has the international reach and marketing muscle to penetrate markets around the world. Face it. Starbucks global sales continue to improve. Today, Starbucks has 220 cafes in the People's Republic. Also, look at how Starbucks continues to take aggressive legal actions to protect its copyrights and trademarks against copycats in foreign markets. But building a Starbucks shop in the Forbidden City, a virtual Ming museum from the 15th century that was home to 24 Chinese emperors, transcends legal rights and coffee tastes. As CCTV journalist Rui Chenggang's blog declares, installing a Starbucks in the middle of China's historical district is nothing short of a national outrage - in fact, it's trampling on Chinese culture. Sure international trade comes down to exports, imports, surpluses, deficits and profits. But respect is also a basic currency that Chinese customers expect - and demand - from multinational service providers including Starbucks. Posted by Daniel Workman Putin argues that, as it stands today, the WTO protects the best interests of more developed countries including the United States and the United Kingdom. Putin's main issue with the WTO's centralized structure is that international trade for all member countries revolve around so-called "Old World" currencies, namely the U.S. dollar and the euro. Putin wants to put more trade controls in the hands of fast-developing countries through a regional European-Asian organization responsible for local area free trade agreements. Regional organizations could be modeled on the WTO but regulatory and decision-making powers would shift to regional committees. From an economic performance perspective, Putin's case for regional free trade has merit. International Monetary Fund statistics for 2006 show that China's economy grew at 10%, India at 8.4% and Russia at 6.4% - well-above the world average. It looks like Putin doesn't want world trade laggards catching up, at least not any time soon. Posted by Daniel Workman No less than a Houston-based rocket scientist, Mr. Jim Oberg, helped me to improve the clarity and correctness of my articles pertaining to MDA's space technology businesses. Currently, Jim is writing an article on RADARSAT militarization for The Space Review. Just last month, the president of Aqua Terra Asset Management furnished top-notch research about the world's most precious commodity. That inspired me to write a series of pieces related to the international water industry. A Claymore investment publicist provided access to international investment resources, including interview opportunities with leading analysts. The results? Our most popular blog Rich As A BRIC and an article with the fastest-growing page views World's Best Water Stock. At the University of Toronto, I met Canadian-sovereignty author David Orchard who writes about the hollowing out of corporate Canada. Those insights galvanized me to write America Drives Free Trade Deals. Similarly I sat beside former prime minister John Turner at a screening of Hoodwinked: The Myth of Free Trade. Entrepreneurs from India to Venezuela have emailed asking for advice on how to set up exporting businesses or how to obtain detailed trade statistics. Often that information can be found in the Google ads that accompany our articles and blog. Please read these ads - answers to your questions may be only a click away. Finally, I was thrilled when the hosts of the Business News Network program Stars & Dogs debated my article Canada's Top Trucking Company which, by way, is a star. Posted by Daniel Workman As described in our article Burj Dubai Next World Trade Center, Dubai is aggressively pursuing a change from a powerful oil-producing country to a high-end tourist destination for well-heeled baby boomer travellers. Toronto Star business reporter Chris Sorenson notes in his June 6, 2007 article about Dubai's Emirates airline that the Middle Eastern air carrier already runs flights from New York to Dubai. Emirates will also offer flights between Houston and Dubai by the end of 2007, hoping to cash in on wealthy oil-industry traffic. The difficulty with Toronto-Dubai flights is that the Canadian government will only allow up to 3 trips per week, in strict compliance with an international trade service agreement between Canada & the United Arab Emirates. Daily flights would improve Emirates' profits by spreading out costs over higher revenues, and give the Middle Eastern airliner more control over price discounts on airline tickets to Dubai. Canada would do well to negotiate stronger trade deals with Dubai, using daily Emirate flights as a bargaining chip. Unfortunately, this is highly unlikely given that West Jet and Air Canada have a duopoly within Canada. These airliners will fight hard to avoid any price reductions that would cut into company profits. Savy Canuck travellers will take advantage of the higher Canadian loonie and find an inexpensive way to travel to New York or Houston. There, Canadians will be able to buy cheaper tickets to Dubai on American-based Emirate flights. Meanwhile, Canada's political machine misses out on yet another opportunity to negotiate a stronger deal with an international trade partner. Posted by Daniel Workman We've seen that some countries have more water resources than others. Water, sometimes referred to as blue gold, is a scarce resource that is continues to experience increased demand. That makes water a great investment, particularly in fast-growing countries like China where the quality of water is poor. To save water in countries with more developed delivery systems, here are 10 great tips from wateruseitwisely.com.
Posted by Daniel Workman Some 19,000 Google searches in May led a growing audience to our international trade site. The list below shows the articles with the most page views in May with the original publication date in brackets. The number of page views for the month is also shown. The top blog remains Rich As A BRIC with 372 page views this month. Top Ten International Trade Articles in May 2007
Posted by Daniel Workman Toronto Star’s May 16 article Teachers buys two water utilities in Chile announces that the US$95-billion Teachers’ fund has acquired:
Why would the Teachers’ Fund focus on Chile when Canada’s water and wastewater systems are in dire need of investment? While Canada is one of the world’s most water-rich nations, few Canadians consider that much of Canada’s water pipe infrastructure was laid over a hundred years ago as cities were built. Old corroded pipes can have leakage rates exceeding 25%. Seasoned global water investment experts at Aqua Terra Asset Management (ATAM) provide quantitative and qualitative analyses on worldwide water opportunities and challenges. Research from ATAM points to a Fraser Institute report that highlights underlying problems with Canadian water systems. These include:
ATAM also presents a finding from Canada’s National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy that, over the 20-year period to 2016, Canada must invest up to US$49 billion to maintain and refurbish existing water and sewage infrastructure. Perhaps the Chilean government is more amenable to Canadian investment in its water systems because, unlike Canada, the South American country better understands the urgent need to invest in its own water resources. Posted by Daniel Workman Our article America Drives Free Trade reveals how foreign companies have privileges that allow them to buy Canadian resources, thus threatening Canada's economic sovereignty. We then wrote about how the top uranium producing countries and companies are benefiting from spiking uranium prices. The fact that Canada is the world's leading producer of uranium makes us think that more foreign takeovers of the Canadian mining companies are imminent. Propelled by blossoming demand for nuclear power from China and India, the current shortfall between global supply and demand for uranium (yellow cake) is expected to rise. China alone is building 30 of the 100 uranium-fuelled reactors being planned or built worldwide. Yuriy Humber of Bloomberg News notes that recent disruptions in uranium supplies will push prices even higher. Cameco (CCO on TSX), the world’s largest uranium miner, reported that a flood at its Cigar Lake uranium project in Saskatchewan, Canada will delay production until 2010. Energy Resources of Australia cautioned that its Ranger mine may produce 35% less uranium in 2008 due to heavy rainfall. Our research shows that there may well be international trade opportunities midst the emotional distress caused by the foreign capital takeover of Canada (or as John Turner calls it - the hollowing out of Canada). Laramide Resources (LAM on TSX) owns the Westmoreland Project, a large open pit uranium mine in Australia. For more details on that Westmoreland's prospects, please read our article World's Top Uranium Project. Since November of last year, Laramide’s stock price has increased 75% from $8 (Canadian) to around $14 as of late. Given the potential of its Westmoreland property in Queensland, Laramide would appear to have upside possibilities. However, the ride will be both risky and volatile as the stock recently traded in a weekly range from $12.21 to $15.40, a gap of more than 20%. Posted by Daniel Workman Canada is focusing on free trade deals with countries in the Western hemisphere. Although Canada does have a sparse portfolio of trade deals with Chile, Costa Rica and Peru, the United States has outperformed Canada in free trade negotiations for many years now. Given that Canada wants to double trade and investment with Brazil by 2012, we hope that the Canadian government approaches future trade negotiations making better use of Canada's rich resources including uranium and water as bargaining chips. In particular, we hope that Canada fares better than it did under both the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) & North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the U.S. As we describe in our analysis America Drives Free Trade, current Canadian free trade agreements expand foreign ownership thus hollowing out the Canadian economy while lowering the standard of living for many Canadians. What would make a bad situation even worse for Canada is an approach that copied the American-dominated free trade agreements into "cookie cutter" treaties to be used with other trading partners like Brazil. Posted by Daniel Workman Some 16,000 Google searches in April led a growing audience to our international trade site. The list below shows the articles with the most page views in April with the original publication date in brackets. The number of page views for the month is also shown. The top blog remains Rich As A BRIC with 200 page views this month. Top Ten International Trade Articles in April 2007
Posted by Daniel Workman More than 50% of Canada's shipments to the U.S. are oil, gas and raw materials like lumber. Last July, we wrote about how the U.S. shafted Canada in a softwood deal. America has consistently beat Canada in trade negotiations, and outperformed the Great White North in gaining new free trade partners. The recently released documentary Hoodwinked: The Myth of Free Trade shows how America has used free trade to strengthen U.S. head office revenues at the expense of Canada's sovereignty and standard of living. The movie includes celebrity analyses, including insights from former Prime Minister John Turner and strategist Dalton Camp. The Ottawa screening featured lively and passionate discussions. Questions that the free trade documentary addresses include "Is Tim Horton's really Canadian?" As for Canada's trade negotiators, the movie shows that Canada has agreed to ridiculous terms that no self-respecting nation would have agreed to. Who would have thought that a relatively wealthy country like Canada would become the door mat of international trade. But maybe that's the problem. Canada has a too-rich upperclass with a too-little understanding of how business works in the real world. Stay tuned. I'll attend Toronto's premier of the movie and report back on both the content and discussions after the documentary. This just in! Read the most important insights from the premier. Note that I was able to sit beside former Canadian Prime Minister John Turner during the film presentation and following discussions. Posted by Daniel Workman Christopher Bodeen's article Tainted-food exports a global worry (Toronto Star, Associated Press, April 13, 2007) reveals that Canada and the United States have increased agricultural imports from China by nearly 20-fold over the past 25 years. Headlines scream out that pet food contaminated with rat poison is killing beloved pet cats and dogs through kidney failure. Canadian pet food maker Menu Foods is forced to recall 60 million cans, and faces countless lawsuits. In international trade, China looks to lose a big part of its US$2.3 billion agricultural food exports to its major North American trade partners. Although China is trying to improve inspections of its exports, so far success has been mixed. Shipments from China to America were rejected at a rate of 200 per month in 2007, more than any country. This number is more startling when we consider that the U.S. only inspects a tiny percentage of the millions of shipments from China each year. Inspections, testing and substantial trade penalties must be imposed before China will focus less on profits and more on compliance with global trade standards. Or is it only a matter of time before humans perish from gluten imported from China and added to processed food that ends up on our store shelves? Posted by Daniel Workman Fishermen slice off the fins of sharks, dumping the half-dead carcasses at the bottom of the ocean to be eaten alive by other fish. Illegal shark fishing is one of the cruelest forms of exploitation in world trade, on par with the blood diamond industry. Once again, greed is the root cause of suffering in global trade. Still, it's hard to blame the impoverished fishermen who risk their lives on the high seas for less than one dollar per pound of shark fin. Any form of exploitation, especially the illegal shark fin trade, has no place in world trade. Shark meat is wastefully discarded, depriving hungry families in poor countries of a valuable source of protein. Furthermore, the ecosystem is threatened, since the lifeforms that sharks prey on are allowed to multiply and devore an inordinate amount of oxygen-supplying plankton. The fact that sharks have been vilified as monsters in movies including Jaws has makes it easy to justify or at least ignore the blackmarket for shark fins. The movie Sharkwater sets the record straight, revealing that the dramatic need for more public awareness, analysis, discussion and action. Read more in our article about shark finning, and see how the World Trade Organization can help resolve some of the issues Then see the movie. And learn. Posted by Daniel Workman Sure the U.S. trade market is ten times the size of Canada's. But that's hardly reason for Canada to play second fiddle and wait for America to first establish free trade relationships with the rest of the world. After all, South Korea is also much smaller than its American, Chinese and Japanese trade partners but makes the most of what it brings to the trade table. The Korean Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. proves that South Korea is willing to work with its trade partners. As reported in the Globe and Mail's April 3, 2007 article S. Korea-U.S. deal paves way for Canada, Canada's International Trade Minister David Emerson wants to protect the interests of Canadian auto makers, shipbuilders and beef exporters as Prime Minister Harper strives for a majority government. Mr. Emerson has yet to define a target date for a final free trade agreement with South Korea, instead waiting until his political party's future is secure before inking any such deal. Face it. South Korea is Canada's seventh-largest export partner representing over US$2.8 billion worth of exports. Rather than playing politics, Canada's Trade Minister should focus on negotiating a free trade deal that will eliminate tariffs of 5% or more that South Korea imposes on 80% of its industrial imports. A clear sense of purpose and resolve enabled the U.S. to structure a free trade deal with South Korea that will increase American exports to Seoul by 20%. So, Canada, get with the free trade program! Posted by Daniel Workman Some 16,000 Google searches in March led a growing audience to our international trade site. The list below shows the articles with the most page views in March with the original publication date in brackets. The number of page views for the month is also shown. The top blog remains Rich As A BRIC with 300 page views this month. Top Ten International Trade Articles in March 2007
Posted by Daniel Workman Our most popular article World's Richest Countries was the target of 3,258 searches including such keyword searches as "richest countries/country in the world", "top ten/10 richest countries", "wealthiest countries/nations". Second-place article World's Poorest Countries was associated with over 1,000 searches in which the audience entered keywords including "world's poorest countries/country". Listed below are other popular writings, with the number of related searches in brackets and pertinent keywords in italics.
Posted by Daniel Workman The world's leading exporter of sugar, coffee, beef and orange juice, Brazil's exports to Iraq are principally food products. According to the February 1, 2007 article Brazil's exports triple in 2006 on iraqupdates.com, two groups of Iraqi entrepreneurs will visit Brazil in 2007 to investigate the purchase of non-food imports from South America's fourth richest and largest country. Jabal Chaya, president of the Brazil-Iraqi Chamber of Commerce, anticipates that household appliances, hospital devices and packaging materials could be added to Iraqi imports from Brazil. President of the Brazil-Iraq Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Jalal Chaya, expected Brazilian exports to Iraq to double in 2007. President Chaya is also confident that Iraqi exports can rebound to those levels prior to the comprehensive economic embargo which the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) had imposed on Iraq on 2 August 1990. In those days, Brazil exported about US$630 million worth of goods to Iraq - four times current totals. Posted by Daniel Workman Free trade with India long-term plan (by Les Whittington, Toronto Star, March 14/07) reports that Canadian Trade Minister's parliamentary secretary gave a speech in New Delhi declaring Canada's long-term vision of an unfettered free-trade deal with India. Recently, India's trade barriers have been loosened as the world's twelfth largest economy transforms into an international trade superpower. For its part, Canada's record in implementing free trade deals has been poor. So while it was disappointing, it wasn't a complete surprise when Canada's parliamentary secretary, Ted Menzies, told reporters that he only "wanted to put it out there" that Canada has a long-term strategy for full free-trade with India. Menzies hopes that Canada and India can sign a foreign investment & protection agreement (FIPA) by year-end. Such an agreement will stimulate investment flows between the two countries. In 2006, imports and exports between Canada and India amounted to US$3.1 billion. Vast opportunities exist to build on that trade relationship. Canada is currently focused on India's information technology, life sciences and mining sectors. Canada brings much expertise and resources to the table, particularly for India's infrastructure including roads, bridges and sewers. Enough talk. Enough speeches. Here's hoping that Canada can develop a detailed, clear action plan that organizes, quantifies and prioritizes what Canada can offer India in a mutually beneficial trade relationship. Posted by Daniel Workman As explained in our recent article NYSE Group Trade Secrets, stocks of non-U.S. firms play an increasingly important role on the NYSE. Let's look at the NYSE-listed stocks from Brazil, Russia, India and China, four fast-growing powerhouses in international trade. We describe the investment potential of these countries in our blog Rich As A BRIC. Here are 32 NYSE-listed companies from Brazil:
Russia has 5 NYSE-listed companies:
India's 10 NYSE-listed companies are:
Here are 20 companies on the NYSE from China:
For more information see nyse.com - Listed Company Directory by region. Posted by Daniel Workman Some 13,708 Google searches in February led a growing audience to our international trade site. The list below shows the articles with the most page views in February with the original publication date in brackets. The number of page views for the month is also shown. Top Ten International Trade Articles in February 2007
The top blog remains Rich As A BRIC with 441 page views this month. Top Ten International Trade Articles in January 2007
There were some 12,800 Google searches in January 2007. Top Ten International Trade Articles in December 2006
There were some 8,400 Google searches in December 2006. Top Ten International Trade Articles in November 2006
There were some 7,300 Google searches in November 2006. Top Ten International Trade Articles in October 2006
There were some 3,900 Google searches in October 2006. Top Ten International Trade Articles in September 2006
There were some 1,600 Google searches in September 2006.$ Posted by Daniel Workman According to the February 23 Toronto Star article Port eyes boost from Asian traffic, cargo landing in Halifax from Asia can be shipped inland via rail or truck, or shipped down the St. Lawrence Seaway via lake ships to ports in Toronto and Hamilton. In the past most international trade goods destined for Canada arrived in Vancouver. In addition to labour disputes, Vancouver's port has grown increasingly congested with traffic from China. Comprised of 12 of Canada's largest retailers including Sears, Sony and Reitmans, the CRSA wants the Port of Halifax to focus on trade from another thriving economy, India. A ship travelling from India through the Suez Canal arrives in Halifax takes about half the time required to travel east across the Pacific Ocean to any port on North America's west coast. Because the shipping route to Halifax is shorter, there will be less damage to products and reduced handling costs. The risk of shipping through the Suez Canal was downplayed, partly because that area is regularly patrolled by Canadian and American naval forces on the lookout for terrorists. To promote its trade advantages, Port of Halifax has introduced its first-ever offices outside Canada in the Indian cities of Mumbai and New Delhi. Canadian ports like Halifax, Toronto and Hamilton will require increased efficiency, skills and business-friendly policies as we described in our article about the world's leading port, Singapore. Otherwise Canada will once again be left behind in the super-competitive arena of international trade. Posted by Daniel Workman Not only is India the world's leading producer of polished diamonds, Indian consumers are buying up to 20% more retail diamonds as India's middle class become richer. Another big growth market for the international diamond trade is China. Like India, the People's Republic has a health economy and is enjoying robust financial health. Canada is one of only a few countries that mine rough diamonds. Thus Canada's diamond industry should benefit from increasing Asian demand for precious gems. The sales and marketing arm of De Beers, London-based Diamond Trading Co., expects increasing diamond purchases by Asian buyers to continue this year. De Beers, the world's largest diamond company, accounts for 40% of diamonds mined around the globe. The South African multinational is finalizing annual statistics on diamond sales. The world's largest mining company, Australia's BHP Billiton Ltd., predicts that diamond supplies won't keep pace with demand from growing markets in China, India and the Middle East. Therefore diamond prices are set to rise in 2007. Posted by Daniel Workman As reported by Santanu Choudhury of Bloomberg News, Bombardier will bid to provide up to 600 locomotives that state-run India Railways plans to use to deliver freight across India. Bombardier will also bid on mass transit rail projects in cities including diamond trade center Mumbai as well as Chennai. The Canadian company also has its eyes set on a contract to build a high-speed rail link between the city of Delhi and its airport. In addition, Indian Railways will need US$1 billion worth of systems and components for locomotives, high-speed trains and signalling equipment. India wants to develop its transportation infrastructure to speed economic expansion, thus reducing poverty. Plans to spend over US$3 billion over the next five years on railway systems and supplies are good news for Bombardier. China, India and Russia remain the company's fastest-growing markets, providing global growth engines for both Bombardier as the world's largest train manufacturer and as a stock (BBD.B on TSX). Posted by Daniel Workman As we pointed out in our article Japan's Trade Buddies, Japan's economy has come out of a long-term restructuring and is now on a sustained growth path. Fourth quarter 2006 marked the eighth straight quarters of improvement for the Japanese economy. With an annualized expansion rate of 4.8%, Japan's performance in the latest quarter far exceeded what experts had expected. Japanese exports performed well, particularly its software, general machinery and high-tech equipment such as car navigation systems. Japanese private-sector consumption of cars, flat-screen TVs and hotel accommodation also accounted for a significant part of increased demand. To recognize the healthier Japanese investment climate, February 14, 2007 saw a new Japanese Exchange Traded Fund introduced on Canada's top stock exchange. The Claymore Japan Fundamental Index ETF C$ Hedged (TSX:CJP) was designed to replicate the performance of the FTSE RAFI Japan C$ Hedged Index. Exposure to Japanese currency is hedged to reduce foreign currency return risks for Canadian investors. As of December 31, the index's top industry weightings were: Consumer Goods (27% of CJP's total assets), Industrials (18.7%), Financials (10.8%), Consumer Services (8.6%), Utilities (8.4%), Telecom (7.9%), Basic Materials (7.7%), Technology (5.5%), Health Care (3.5%) and Oil & Gas (1.92%). CJP's top ten holdings were:
Posted by Daniel Workman StreetAuthority's subscriber-only investment newsletter picks iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI) as one of the world's top performing investments in 2007. StreetAuthority points out that in addition to a growing Chinese middle-class of over 300 million consumers, China continues to enjoy booming foreign trade. After joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China's government has reduced tariffs and made it easier for foreign companies to invest directly in China. StreetAuthority compares China emergence as an economic superpower to America's economic expansion in the late 19th century as the U.S. became the world's largest economy. Mad Money's Jim Cramer (booyah, booyah) recognizes the risks of a red-hot economy like China's, but affirms that the Chinese market offers a great opportunity to jump in once FXI's unit price settles down. The Motley Fool's Will Frankenhoff believes that companies in FXI like China Mobile, China Life and PetroChina are attractively valued in relation to their growth prospects, particularly since these companies service China's domestic market. A recent report by the Xinhua Economic Information Department sees China's $2.5 trillion economy posting an impressive 9.5% gain in 2007, down slightly from 10.5% in 2006. Retail sales in China will grow by 15%, an example of the consumer demand that continues to fuel Chinese business profits. China's tremendous economic growth should continue for years to come as it approaches the level of wealth of the U.S. or Western Europe. The key to investing in this hyper-growth market is the diversification found in FXI's basket of blue-chip Chinese companies. Posted by Daniel Workman America's commerce department reported that the U.S. annual trade deficit hit a new high in 2006, continuing a five-year streak. A flood of relatively inexpensive imports from China as well as record prices for oil imports are compelling reasons behind the U.S. trade deficit's 6.5% rise to over US$650 billion. The good news is that American exports are also increasing, although at a slower rate than imports. At its simplest level, this trade imbalance results in an accelerating U.S. deficit. Yet stronger foreign economies coupled with a weaker American dollar helped U.S. exports in 2006 to rise to a record US$1.2 trillion, up 12.6% from 2005. U.S. exports grew at a faster rate than the 10.5% for American imports in 2006. However, the final amount of U.S. imports last year was greater, specifically US$1.9 trillion. According to John Ward of the Canadian Press, merchandise exports from Canada to the U.S. in 2006 declined, the first annual decrease in three years. Canadian exports to the U.S. made up 79% of total foreign revenues, down from 81% in 2005. Canadian autos and forestry products saw the greatest declines. Canadian exports rose 1.1% in 2006 to US$392 billion. Imports into Canada climbed nearly four times faster than exports, and hit a record US$346 billion. Increased foreign imports reduced Canada's trade surplus by US$9.5 billion to US$46 billion, the lowest Canadian trade surplus since 1999. Canada's US$82 billion trade surplus with the U.S. in 2006 is the lowest annual Canadian surplus with America since 2003. Posted by Daniel Workman Cisco's stock price (CSCO on NASDAQ) increases to $28.85 from prior day low $$27.12 based on a 36% jump in net income and a 27% rise in revenues for its second quarter. As we wrote in our January 25 article Cisco International Sales, emerging markets continue to fuel revenue growth for the company's network and Internet equipment. Momentum from emerging markets was certainly firing on all cylinders in Cisco's latest quarter: Overall revenue growth from emerging regions was up some 40% from last year. Russia and Africa accounted for 12% of Cisco's product orders, up from 11% in the prior quarter. Cisco's large size allows the company to dominate emerging markets, which is why analysts expect Cisco to maintain its 40% growth rate in emerging markets for several years. In such markets, margins tend to be higher and operating expenses lower. Many stock analysts are just now upgrading Cisco's ratings. We were ahead of the curve, writing about Cisco's global trade success over two weeks before its stellar quarterly results were released. Our research uncovered the fact that Internet Protocol TV (IPTV), television delivered over a broadband connection, and online videos are global consumer products that require Cisco's advanced network products. Read more about Cisco products. Telecom carrier spending on video, cable operators' upgrades and the "healthy growth in user-generated video" is expected to strengthen demand for Cisco's products in the second half of this year and in 2008. Keep reading Suite101 articles, have fun and profit from your experience! Posted by Daniel Workman Some 12,800 Google searches in January led a growing audience to our international trade site. The list below shows the articles with the most page views in January with the original publication date in brackets. The number of page views for the month is also shown. Top Ten International Trade Articles in January 2007
Top Ten International Trade Articles in December 2006
There were some 8,400 Google searches in December 2006. Top Ten International Trade Articles in November 2006
There were some 7,300 Google searches in November 2006. Top Ten International Trade Articles in October 2006
There were some 3,900 Google searches in October 2006. Top Ten International Trade Articles in September 2006
There were some 1,600 Google searches in September 2006.$ Posted by Daniel Workman In his article Global stage no longer a reflection of reality in the January 29, 2007 edition of the Toronto Star, David Crane explains that emerging markets now constitute 50% of the world economy. However, this fact is not reflected in the representation and voting powers of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Consider some examples. The European Union, America, Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand own 60% of IMF votes. China has less voting power than Belgium combined with the Netherlands. Equally laughable is the fact that Canada has 2.89% of IMF votes, far more than India. To its credit, the IMF is striving to reallocate voting powers. This necessary epiphany is likely to be a long, painful process because countries with an abundance of votes will fight having to give them up. Posted by Daniel Workman In world trade, India's economy continues to provide strong demand for other countries' exports. Take Indian trade in office and telecom equipment in 2005, for example. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), India's exports of office and telecom equipment in 2005 was US$989 million. Imports for this type of equipment into India was $10.4 billion over the same period. The rest of the world is taking note of India's strong demand for office equipment. Office supply king Staples has announced a joint venture with Future Office, a unit of India's Pantaloon Retail Ltd. Through Future Office, the American office-supply company will offer delivery and cash-and-carry locations in India. Future Office will also expand its delivery operations to include key Indian cities Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai, Kolkata, Pune, Ahmedabad, Indore and Chandigarh. Posted by Daniel Workman Regardless of a slowdown in the world economy, most analysts expect worldwide sales of generic drugs to increase because generics save consumers money. That's why TEVA Pharmaceutical Industries is considered the top defensive stock for 2007 from an international trade perspective. TEVA is a diversified drug company. TEVA also makes proprietary branded drugs like best-selling multiple sclerosis treatment Copaxone® and sells active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) to drug manufacturers around the world. Another TEVA branded drug is Azilect®, the first once-daily oral treatment for Parkinson's disease. TEVA's financial results for third quarter ending September 30, 2006 were stellar. Overall, quarterly net sales rose 74% to $2,286 million while net income increased 127% compared to the same period of 2005. Fully diluted earnings per share (EPS) jumped 85% to $0.74. The company's gross profit margin reached 55.2% in the quarter, up from 47% in the prior year. North American pharmaceutical sales were up 87% in the latest quarter, benefiting from TEVA's introduction of 22 new products. Pharmaceutical sales in Europe increased 36% due in part to higher generic sales from 34 product launches across nine countries. International pharmaceutical sales rose 149% notably due to the addition of new markets in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe. After TEVA announced its stellar quarter on November 7, its stock price has stuck around the $32.80 level down from $36 in October. As long as TEVA continues to grow its revenues and earnings consistently at about 20% or less, TEVA offers considerable upside in both the global generic drug marketplace and in terms of its stock price on NASDAQ. Currently TEVA is the 14th largest component of the NASDAQ 100 Index, ahead of the likes of Starbucks, Costco and Adobe Systems. Note: Suite101 does not offer investment advice. Instead, we seek to educate and inform our readers by writing about the latest trends in world trade. Armed with these insights, you are in a much better position to make your own decisions. We encourage you to add your thoughts to our analysis by starting a discussion below. Posted by Daniel Workman We first looked Britain's Diageo as an international trade powerhouse last July in the article King of Alcoholic Beverages. Paul Tracy, editor of StreetAuthority Market Advisor, looks to Diageo as his favorite conservative stock for 2007. Tracy's stock predictions are much respected after he finished 4th in last year's stock picking competition among leading financial newsletter advisors. Tracy notes that Diageo owns either the best-selling or second-best-selling brand of drink in every major category of alcohol. Diageo accounts for 55% of the sales for the world's top 10 premium spirits brands. Tracy likes Diageo's moves into foreign markets in Africa, Latin America and Asia. He is also attracted to the stock's dividend yield of 3%, noting that there's room for further distribution hikes. Around the world, premiums spirits consistently generate the highest prices from wealthy baby boomers and enjoy the highest profit margins. Diageo is the premium alcohol leader in the U.S., Great Britain, Ireland, Russia, Brazil, India, Korea and Australia. Although Diageo has over 150 brands, the company focuses on both global priority brands and some 30 local priority brands. A local priority brand is one which holds an important position in an individual region, e.g. Crown Royal in North America and Cacique in Spain. Diageo is strategically positioned to take advantage of anticipated strong demand from drinkers in fast-growing Brazil-Russia-India-China. In Brazil, the company is #1 in premium & standard scotch and vodka, with net sales up 42% from 2005. Diageo is Russia's #1 maker of premium & standard scotch and cream liqueurs, up 26% from 2005. Drinkers in India make Diageo #1 in vodka and premium scotch, up 37% in 2005. Net sales in China are up 61% from the year earlier. We agree that Diageo will continue to be the King of Alcoholic Beverages in world trade. However, Diageo's current stock price of US$89 is near an all-time high. Six months ago Diageo's price was 40% lower at $65. We'll wait until Diageo's shares approach the $65-70 level before jumping on the Diageo bandwagon. Posted by Daniel Workman It's hard to remove your emotions from an analysis of George Bush's duplicitous demands for yet another massive appropriation of Iraqi war funding. At time of Bush's speech, the U.S. had already spent US$350 billion on a deadly effort with very little returns, despite America's "patience, sacrifice and resolve". Let's just say that it is hard to believe that throwing additional resources spent on Iraq will bear fruit, particularly when the war funds will be administered by the same bureaucracy in Washington and Baghdad that has already squandered billions of dollars through corruption and mismanagement. Many pundits believe that Bush's "new way forward" is just a ploy to extend the Iraqi war past the Bush's current presidential term, leaving a mess for which the next American president will have to take responsibility - including the stigma of America's defeat in Iraq. From an international trade perspective, my greatest fear is that Americans will fail to understand that oil prices may well go through the roof if Bush is allowed to make yet another mistake by extending America's presence in Iraq. Currently oil prices are falling, which can lull voters into putting oil on the backburner. It's what Bush didn't mention in his speech that is most troubling. As brilliantly articulated by David Olive in the January 11, 2007 edition of the Toronto Star, America is losing the war that Bush launched 4 years ago. Iraq has descended into civil war, with 132,000 U.S. soldiers trapped in the sectarian crossfire. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Turkey have been warning Washington for months that they will invade Iraq to protect their fellow ethnic Sunnis if necessary. Threats to the region from Iran are more publicly known. Even a traditional American ally like Turkey is amassing troops to invade Iraq from the north to protect Turks in Iraq from Iraqi Kurds. Should the Middle East erupt in conflict, David Olive estimates that world oil prices will jump at least 50%. The world economy will go into shock, with severe declines in stock exchanges around the globe. After hearing George Bush's speech, I am even more determined to buy oil stocks with low price-to-earnings ratios like Talisman (TLM on NYSE and TSX). A warmer winter is one thing. Deadly massacres and civil war in the Middle East will affect oil prices and world trade far more profoundly, with due respect to the "patience, sacrifice and resolve" that Bush demands but to-date has resolved very few issues in Iraq. Posted by Daniel Workman Some 8,400 Google searches in December led a growing audience to our international trade site. The list below shows the articles with the most page views in December with the original publication date in brackets. The number of page views for the month is also shown. Top Ten International Trade Articles in December 2006
Top Ten International Trade Articles in November 2006
There were some 7,300 Google searches in November 2006. Top Ten International Trade Articles in October 2006
There were some 3,900 Google searches in October 2006. Top Ten International Trade Articles in September 2006
There were some 1,600 Google searches in September 2006. Posted by Daniel Workman Other advantages are that a strong and stable Euro has helped to:
The Euro was not always a roaring success. For the first 2 years after its introduction in January 2002, the Euro's value went down significantly. There have been growing pains. A survey published by the European Commission shows that almost one third of EU consumers believe that the Euro has caused prices to increase. In reality, inflation has increased only by slightly more than 2%. Surveys also reveal that some are clinging to the old currencies, even now. More than 20% of participants still calculate their daily purchases in the old currency. For big purchases, the old currencies are used 40% of the time. Economists point to the inability of the Euro to create the right conditions for a more balanced, supportive environment among all EU countries. On January 1, 2007, new EU member Slovania became the 13th country to join the eurozone (nations that officially use the Euro). At least 6 other mini-states and territories use the Euro as legal tender without approval from the European Central Bank. Ex-communist country Slovania joins other official EU members using the Euro, namely: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In 2008 Cyprus and Malta are scheduled to adopt the Euro. While the Euro has stimulated the EU's success in international trade, it is not close to rivaling the U.S. greenback as a reserve currency to the world. |
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