Young Adult Science Fiction and Fantasy

I went into the local B&N yesterday to look at YA novels, because I'm contemplating writing one and wanted to get a feel for what's on the shelf already. I was really surprised to find some books that I didn't think of as YA there - namely Anne McCaffrey's Harper Hall series (and at a nifty introductory price of $2.99) as well as Caroline Stevermer's A College of Magics.

It was nice to see so many fantasy books there, but sadly enough, there didn't seem to be much, if any, science fiction. Robert Heinlein's wonderful YA novels, Podkayne of Mars, Have Spacesuit Will Travel, and others of that ilk were notably absent, as were books by John Christopher or Andres Norton. I know fantasy outsells science fiction, but it still seemed a little sad.

Presumably, the rise of YA fantasy is a result of Harry Potter's success. Diane Wynne Jones' excellent Chrestomanci novels, which preceded Rowling's, were well represented, and it's nice to see them getting some attention.

I ended up coming away with an armful that included Harry Potter and the Halfblood Prince, Zilpha Keatly Snyder's The Witches of Worm, a collection of four Daniel Pinkwater books, and Joan Aiken's The Wolves of Willoughby Chase. I'm trying to figure out what makes a YA fantasy novel successful, and why others that seem just as imaginative and well-written don't. Is it realistic to think one can predict the vagaries of the market? I'm really not sure, but the experiment seems worth the effort.