Inquiry Lacks Teeth

The Israeli political leadership will have a hard time pulling behind Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz when they clearly showed a lack of experience in managing foreign and defense policy in the recent crisis.

This inexperience was so deeply embedded that it took the calling up of reserve soldiers to be sent to Lebanon before it became painfully clear the Israeli public did not have the appetite to continue with the escalation of the conflict.

Though during the conflict the Israeli public showed support for the war effort, reserve soldiers are now leading an aggressive effort to expose the decision-making of the government and the military. Former military leaders are also sharing in the criticism.

This post-war period will test the leadership of the fledgling Kadima Party. As well, Amir Peretz will become a target by the leadership of the Labor Party. His own left wing support base in his party will be eroded by his role in the conflict as Defense Minister.

Ehud Olmert's days as leader could also be numbered due to the fragile nature of Kadima's coalition which spans the center of the Israeli political spectrum. The pragmatism and political strategy which created the party as a way of sidestepping the distortions of the increasingly polarized Israeli political environment could very lead to the dumping of Olmert within a year. As well, the collapse of his coalition government could also happen within a year if the political atmosphere does not change.

Olmert and Peretz will continue to have the advantage of support from the United States and can also still outmaneuver likely rivals due to their own weaknesses and grandstanding. Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman bring a polarizing brand of politics which resonates with a contingent of the Israeli right wing. Though the Israeli public would question their ability to lead, the two remain able to drive the political agenda and utilize the present environment to their advantage.

It is much more likely that the impetus for change comes from within the Labor Party, Kadima and the military leadership itself.

It is in this environment that the political strategy of branding the Palestinian leadership as incapable of engaging in a meaningful peace process is an effective model by those looking to score political points under the proportional representation model. It is an effective method of building a polarized political bloc which can wield influence in decision-making even though it has the capacity to perpetuate a dysfunctional political environment as well.

Though proportional representation is seen as a progressive form of governance in the context of a conflict environment, it can systematize distortions and polarities.