Russian Politics

All my predictions of (relative) peace and calm in Moscow seem to have been knocked into a cocked hat, with Yeltsin's third replacement of his premier in just over a year, in the teeth of a Duma debating impeaching him. His change of premier may (in case his nominee for premier is rejected by the Duma three times) give him a right that would be forbidden if the Duma approves any articles of impeachment - the right to dissolve the Duma and call early Duma elections. This in itself - let alone the fact that Primakov and his government was forced upon Yeltsin by the Duma - spells a likely constitutional crisis.

More importantly, it spells a likely return to instability and possibly even chaos, as expectations are destroyed once more by Yeltsin's breaking his promises (not to interfere in Primakov's government) and upsetting expectations through personnel reshuffles. This brings back the spectre of Russia as rabid tiger...with a likely enough international issue at hand.

Breaking promises is also why I am leaving Suite101.com. Suite101.com management broke a couple of promises to us Contributing Editors, and did so with little consideration for what was at stake. After long and careful thought, I have decided that it would be neither right nor prudent for myself to stick with Suite101.com. But, you should still feel free to email me and/or visit my site, especially if you want to start up some new Russian politics discussions or articles...and there should be plenty to write about in the months ahead!

May 14, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Despite dire warnings from the Kremlin and elsewhere of world war over Kosovo, and despite my own un-Pollyannish view of Russia's potential, I do not believe World War III will start in the Balkans in the near future. I believe this both because Russia has much less stake in the Balkans than in the Caspian, and also because the Russian state is much more stable than it has been in some time. Even the top Communist member of the Cabinet has attacked proposals for "rethinking" Russian military doctrine in the face of NATO action in Yugoslavia. This is more a matter of Russia maintaining some sort of balance of power in the world by siding with America's enemies.

Apr 30, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Georgia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan have left the CIS Collective Security Treaty, and Georgia and Azerbaijan have become increasingly pro-NATO. This adds a weighty set of political priorities to the economic ones implicated in the various pipeline proposals for tapping the vast oil and gas wealth of the Caspian Sea region. The US wants the pipeline to avoid Russian and Iranian territory, and is willing to use various financial instruments at her disposal to influence that, in the face of growing private concerns regarding the trans-Caspian proposal's profitability. The pipeline would involve Kazakhstan and especially Turkmenistan in Caucasian affairs to a much greater extent than is the case now.

Apr 16, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The CIS' Collective Security Treaty is getting down to the wire, with a summit scheduled for April 2. Georgia has joined Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan in declaring the current treaty unacceptable, and in fact she has joined Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Moldova in forming a new security organization, dubbed GUAM. Georgia herself is still in danger of splintering violently - with serious implications for possible oil and gas pipelines.

Apr 2, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Boris Berezovsky has been canned by Yeltsin - possibly as a result of his conciliatory responses to some CIS member concerns. Armenia is calling for an official role for Turkey and Iran in the Caucasus region, and both countries have vested interests there. Chechnya's ongoing hostage crisis - a microcosm of its political crisis - may be coming to a crescendo with the abduction of Russian Interior Ministry General Gennady Shpigun.

Mar 19, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Russia's Boris Berezovsky is scrambling to save the CIS collective defense structure in general and the Caspian members' participation in particular. Meanwhile, continued Russian buildups in Armenia cast an ominous shadow over conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, while an Ankara-Tbilisi-Baku axis seems to be forming. That axis is best represented by a proposed oil pipeline, which for obvious reasons will interest the rest of the world.

Mar 5, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Outside parties, especially Turkey and possibly also Iran and the United States, have strong potential for intervening in the Caspian in the foreseeable future, especially on the side of Azerbaijan. Russia is working to bolster her leverage in the region, well aware of her opponents. A shooting war is a distinct possibility.

Feb 19, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

A brief Who's Who - and Who's doing What - of the Caspian region. Russia's stakes in the various governments and ethnic conflicts are highlighted.

Feb 5, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The Caspian Sea region, with its ethnic strife (and arbitrary borders), growing Islamic fundamentalism, absolute despotism since time immemorial - and now stupendous oil and gas reserves - is becoming the New Middle East of the 21st Century. The resulting internal divisions, Western ignorance of the stakes in the various ethnic wars, plus the plausible claim Russia has to some of the Caspian oil anyway would make the Caspian a logical starting point for Russian adventurists.

Jan 22, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

According to most Russians, 1998 was the worst come-down from the previous year since 1992 - and not without good reason. But, the government is enjoying a breather for now, as the 1999 budget went through the Duma on its first reading, and impeachment doesn't seem to be a hot issue outside the Kremlin. Meanwhile, the government's getting set to take over the banking system as part and parcel of a financial rescue program (old vodka, new bottles). Speaking of vodka, Premier Primakov seems to be following President Yeltsin's lead in promising purges to strengthen discipline in the government, as it gets set to tighten up on bootleg alcohol and tobacco. Maybe these measures will impress Belarusian President Lukashenka that Russia's fit to join his fine iron-fisted dictatorship.

Jan 8, 1999 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Impeachment proceedings against Yeltsin are expected to be voted on by the Duma in January, and if accepted by a two-thirds majority there, to go before the Supreme and Constitutional Courts and then, if approved by both, to the Federation Council, which must vote a two-thirds majority to remove the president. The charges - supported predominantly though not solely by the Communists - are mostly political in nature. Indeed, genuine legal scandals do not seem to be playing any role in the impeachment process whatsoever. Yeltsin is recovering (physically), so this matters more. Among other things, this may have some effect on the Russian-Indian negotiations for a strategic partnership in 1999.

Dec 25, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Yeltsin's December 7 purge and promised "coordination" bode ill for Russia. Not only is this yet another Kremlin purge, but this shows signs of building on itself. It also is a breach of Yeltsin's promise not to interfere in the day-to-day running of the government. Some things are looking up, however: foreign companies are still investing in Russia, the 1999 draft budget is about ready and the Duma audience seems receptive and finally some official attention is being paid to the Y2K problem.

Dec 11, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The murder of liberal deputy Galina Starovoitova is indeed tragic, both personally and for the liberal cause in Russia. The extent, if any, to which it will contribute to greater social and political breakdown, however, depends more on other factors. As for the Russian food situation, there is definitely a case for food aid, notwithstanding Russian food exports. Inflation gives Russian producers good reason to export rather than sell domestically. Also, the government does not have strong mechanisms for transferring goods to the poor (and this is exacerbated by weather conditions now). Thus, food aid may still be the best bet, in the face of a terrible harvest this year, of preventing starvation in Russia.

Nov 27, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The Russian Army is organizing politically, not only to pressure the government on its own behalf, but also to serve as a surrogate government. There has always been a tendency for the military to pick up the pieces in situations like this, as it is often the only body able to keep order, and order tends to be top priority after prolonged chaos and instability. Such a revolutionary situation creates some incentive for military adventures, even "irrational" ones.

Nov 13, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Russia is not necessarily heading for the abyss, but given previous developments, Russia's history and parallels with Iraq, it's wise to at least make contingency plans. Primakov's government is likely to be Russia's - and the world's - last chance.

Oct 30, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The developing Belarusian dictatorship on the border draws some Russians' admiration for having the trains run on time and standing up to the West, unlike Russia itself. Russia just might be supporting Serbia against the West in order to burnish its image as a power to be reckoned with - and counted on. Meanwhile, the Y2K problem - about which nothing seems to be getting done even now in Russia - could be the destruction of all our hopes for Russia, and perhaps the world. All of these problems need to be followed closely.

Oct 16, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The new coalition government is setting out its economic agenda, which is expected to include an alcohol monopoly, currency controls, other state controls on the economy and inflation. As discussed previously, greater state controls and inflation are a bad idea. This is in the face of an approaching national day of protest. The new broom that sweeps clean may be Russia's last chance to solve its crisis of confidence that otherwise could bring down the regime, and possibly much of the world with it.

Oct 2, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The new Premier Yevgeny Primakov must refrain from the temptation to renationalize many parts of the Russian economy: that would be the worst thing to do. The best solution for Russia's problems is thoroughgoing and credible economic and political reform.

Sep 18, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The alert of security forces underscores the danger that Russia may be tempted to turn to foreign adventures to resolve her domestic problems. This may be more likely if the Russian government resasserts control over much of the economy and subjects that much more of it to the lurchings of Moscow. The West must make absolutely clear that such a move would be a Big Mistake. The West must display the same credibility that is lacking in Moscow.

Sep 4, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

With the replacement of Premier Sergei Kiriyenko by previous Premier Victor Chernomyrdin right in the middle of post-Soviet Russia's worst financial crisis and crisis of confidence, I have come to the conclusion that anything can happen at this point. Everyone, especially Westerners living in Russia, should now be prepared for the worst.

Aug 27, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The Russian securities markets have gone off the deep end as the ruble has in fact been allowed to float, a 90-day moratorium has been imposed on some foreign creditors and yet another top aide has been fired. If the West in fact wants to help Russia, she must use her financial resources not as a direct cure for Russia's problems - they are really political, not economic - but rather as the incentive necessary to undertake much-needed reforms, and re-establish the Russian government's credibility.

Aug 21, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Title says it all - stay informed on Russian Politics and have a good time!

Aug 7, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Premier Sergei Kiriyenko needs to keep in mind, amid the financial crisis, that unpaid workers and pensioners are creditors too, and poor Russian citizens to boot. Not just this crisis, but also Russia's situation in general and President Boris Yeltsin's bad political and worse physical health, leave Kiriyenko in a unique position to make all the difference.

Jul 24, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Various news events in Russian politics around the Fourth of July weekend: the miners' and utility workers' strike, Lev Rokhlin's murder and a new summit in Moscow in September even though START 2 hasn't (yet?) been ratified by the Duma.

Jul 10, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

When trying to understand politics, I emphasize matters of political credibility. Leaders who are not perceived as being bound by their word will suffer - and their nations and possibly other nations as well will suffer with them - in many ways. Most dramatically, leaders may feel forced to adopt policies very far from the norm and not subject to any retraction - to become rabid tigers - just to show that they do mean what they say. These facts give considerable cause for concern but not resignation regarding Russia.

Jun 26, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Russia's current financial crisis, a slow downward slide rather than a cataclysmic fall, is becoming a microcosm of Russia in general, lurching from crisis to crisis due mainly to political and legal instability. Watch the changes in Russia's tax administration and implementation for a possible turnaround - not just in raising more money but, more importantly, raising more confidence in the government.

Jun 12, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Lebed's victory in Krasnoyarsk comes at a time when Russia is facing an economic and financial crisis: the ruble is falling, the stock market is collapsing, no one even bid for Rosneft, interest rates are skyrocketing, inflation is a major threat and unpaid miners are in strike in force.

May 29, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Moscow seems to be in the eye of a political storm, with issues ranging from tax/pension arrears to taxes, possible spending cuts, privatizations and START-2 ratification to be tackled soon. The Communists may be gearing up for a confrontation with the government, especially after summer recess.

May 15, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Kiriyenko's "landslide" confirmation by the Duma on the third vote seems to show that Yeltsin now dominates the Russian political scene. Given that he's ill much of the time and the new premier is a political nonentity, that's not so hot. Meanwhile, the upcoming presidential election in 2000 is occupying many people's minds. Watch the gubernatorial election in Krasnoyarsk.

May 1, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Boris Yeltsin's illness and general or partial incapacity and the resulting instability are beginning to play havoc in Russia. The upcoming presidential elections in 2000 are already influencing events, as well as Duma elections in 1999 (if not this year). Given these facts, it is very good that Yeltsin chose not to run for a third term, especially since it would challenge Constitutional norms.

Apr 23, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

President Boris Yeltsin and Acting Premier Sergei Kiriyenko are preparing for a showdown with the Duma over Kiriyenko's nomination for premier. He's already been rejected twice, but Yeltsin insists on putting his name forth one more time and then dissolving the Duma and holding new Duma elections if it demurs. The anti-Kiriyenko party leaders insist that the president has no right to nominate someone more than once for premier, and so the president would have to nominate someone else, and wait until three separate people had been rejected before dissolving the Duma. This is a serious trial of strength between Yeltsin and the Duma. If Kiriyenko is confirmed after all, his program promises important changes in Russia.

Apr 18, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Kiriyenko's nomination is now featuring dialogue and some endorsements as the battle encompasses all of Russia's economic policy.

Apr 10, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Yeltsin's Kremlin purge forebodes major clashes both in the short and long term, and might even lead to disaster down the road.

Apr 1, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The Soviet military had an important but constrained role in politics. Now, the military has serious grievances: wage arrears, lack of maintenance and serious cutbacks. If they continue to have reason to believe that the leadership does not care about them and that they cannot count on the leadership, they may intervene...with serious consequences.

Mar 20, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Chechnya is pushing for independence from Russia in the wake of a bloody war, and its status will be determined by 2001. Much is at stake as a crucial oil pipeline passes through Chechnya, and in the meantime some terrorism, including taking of Western hostages, is prevalent.

Mar 7, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Russia's position on Iraq must be understood in light of the continuing confrontations between Yeltsin and the Duma over economic policy (and the budget in particular) and the makeup of the government.

Feb 23, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

The Iraq crisis is eliciting heated words from both Yeltsin and Duma leaders as they confront each other on a wide variety of domestic issues. This explains Russia's hardest line in support of Iraq since the Kuwait War. The growing domestic conflict and instability in the Kremlin may impel the leadership to "irrational" confrontation with the West, in order to prove that they can take a firm stand. Russia may be turning into a rabid tiger.

Feb 6, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

Chernomyrdin has centralized powers away from Nemtsov and Chubais, and Chubais' future is uncertain. Meanwhile, Yeltsin and the Duma clash over a possible "coalition government". Also, Chechnya's ultimate status remains a hot issue.

Jan 23, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch

1997 in review: poor tax collections, media/banking empires, and even Chubais the putative reformer doesn't have clean hands. Chubais has suffered serious reverses; many of his allies are now gone in the wake of a book-publishing scandal, and he has definitely lost some standing. Centralization of media and banking is possible in the near future.

Jan 1, 1998 - Jeffrey Deutsch