Russian Politics
Jeffrey Deutsch
Latest Articles
Primakov's Outta Here...and so am I
All my predictions of (relative) peace and calm in Moscow seem to have been knocked into a cocked hat, with Yeltsin's third replacement of his premier in just over a year, in the teeth of a Duma debating impeaching him. His change of premier may (in case his nominee for premier ...
Why Russia (Likely) Won't Go To War Over Kosovo
Despite dire warnings from the Kremlin and elsewhere of world war over Kosovo, and despite my own un-Pollyannish view of Russia's potential, I do not believe World War III will start in the Balkans in the near future. I believe this both because Russia has much less stake in the Balkans ...
Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part VII
Georgia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan have left the CIS Collective Security Treaty, and Georgia and Azerbaijan have become increasingly pro-NATO. This adds a weighty set of political priorities to the economic ones implicated in the various pipeline proposals for tapping the vast oil and gas wealth of the Caspian Sea region. The ...
Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part VI in a series
The CIS' Collective Security Treaty is getting down to the wire, with a summit scheduled for April 2. Georgia has joined Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan in declaring the current treaty unacceptable, and in fact she has joined Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Moldova in forming a new security organization, dubbed GUAM. Georgia herself is ...
Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part V in a series
Boris Berezovsky has been canned by Yeltsin - possibly as a result of his conciliatory responses to some CIS member concerns. Armenia is calling for an official role for Turkey and Iran in the Caucasus region, and both countries have vested interests there. Chechnya's ongoing hostage crisis - a microcosm of ...
Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part IV in a series
Russia's Boris Berezovsky is scrambling to save the CIS collective defense structure in general and the Caspian members' participation in particular. Meanwhile, continued Russian buildups in Armenia cast an ominous shadow over conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, while an Ankara-Tbilisi-Baku axis seems to be forming. That axis is best represented by ...
Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part III
Outside parties, especially Turkey and possibly also Iran and the United States, have strong potential for intervening in the Caspian in the foreseeable future, especially on the side of Azerbaijan. Russia is working to bolster her leverage in the region, well aware of her opponents. A shooting war is a distinct ...
Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part II in a series
A brief Who's Who - and Who's doing What - of the Caspian region. Russia's stakes in the various governments and ethnic conflicts are highlighted.
Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part I in a series
The Caspian Sea region, with its ethnic strife (and arbitrary borders), growing Islamic fundamentalism, absolute despotism since time immemorial - and now stupendous oil and gas reserves - is becoming the New Middle East of the 21st Century. The resulting internal divisions, Western ignorance of the stakes in the various ethnic ...
According to most Russians, 1998 was the worst come-down from the previous year since 1992 - and not without good reason. But, the government is enjoying a breather for now, as the 1999 budget went through the Duma on its first reading, and impeachment doesn't seem to be a hot issue ...