The Old Staff That Might

What if David Wells' back acts up? What if Roger Clemens' legs cannot survive another season? What if Andy Pettitte's elbow is worse than is known? What if Mike Mussina has reached the age where a pitcher must adjust to the loss of some velocity off his fast ball? What if Jeff Weaver really is just a .500 pitcher? And what do we really know about Jose Contreras?

It may seem easy to ask, "What if?" and it is, but it's a lot more difficult to answer "What if?" An old adage states that one can never be too rich, too thin or have enough pitching. The 2003 Yankees may once again confirm that belief. Wells will be 40 in May and Clemens will be 41 in August. The anchors of the staff have been around the block a few times. Mussina is 34 and Pettitte is almost 31. The only "youngster" is Jeff Weaver, who is 26. No one is quite sure about the age of Jose Contreras.

Now that it has been established that the staff is old, it cannot be established that it will suffer major injuries. But the chances are that injuries will occur, which is why manager Joe Torre has stated that he will go with five starters and is grateful that there is depth when the team has seven potential starters.

Assuming that Contreras starts the season in the bullpen, which is likely, the highly regarded "rookie" should be capable of stepping in and doing a better than adequate job if a starter goes down. If more than one starting pitcher is hurt, there is Sterling Hitchcock, who still has not been traded and who can pitch effectively. The problem is that he can also pitch ineffectively and at this late stage of his checkered career, is an unknown quantity.

Looking at the situation from a statistical vantage point, the chances are good that at least three of the starters will remain healthy and effective enough to pitch 200 innings or more and win 15-18 games. The remaining four should combine to win enough games to get to the post season. Boston is not going to win the division, and Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay pose no serious threats, although Toronto may be an underrated team.

Once October begins, the Yankees will be faced with the same problems they had this past October, when Joe Torre eschewed starting his ace until Game 4 against the Angels. The starting pitchers, unless Contreras is really as good as his record in Cuban baseball indicates, are all above average, but none is a true ace. And the bullpen has some big question marks, which will be discussed next.

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