Allied and Axis GDP
reconcile themselves to a war with the US, regardless of the incredible disparity in GDP, because of the global balance of great power GDP. By siding with the Axis and assuming the swift defeat and incorporation of the USSR by the Axis in Europe, Japan would provide enough GDP to the Axis side for an advantage in the ratio of Allied to Axis GDP. With the addition of Soviet GDP to the Axis, Japan engaged on the Axis side and the United States on Allied side, the ratio would be at 0.94.
At the end of 1941, the Axis had every reason to believe the war against the Allies was economically winnable. The reality of an undefeated USSR, however, gave Churchill every reason to say "we will win after all," after the attack on Pearl Harbor. For the first time, the Allies had a commanding GDP advantage of 1.83 in the Allies to Axis ratio of great power GDP. From this time onwards, the Allies retained a substantial economic advantage over the Axis.
This analysis shows that while by 1942 there was a substantial Allied economic advantage, measured in GDP, this did not exist at the beginning of the war in 1939. In fact for a period of time the Axis commanded greater GDP than the Allies. Suggesting that the Allies had a GDP superiority from the start is wrong and misses the dynamics of World War II. It is worth noting that from a lead of 1.25 in 1939, the Allies were reduced to a miserable 0.38 by 1941. There was nothing preordained about the recovery of GDP that followed. It is unreasonable to believe that Allied decision makers were particularly confident of economic dominance until well into 1942, regardless of their public pronouncements.
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