Allied and Axis GDP
the eve of war, Nazi Germany announced a treaty with the USSR. The Nazi-Soviet Pact certainly neutralized the economic weight of the USSR and it may have been interpreted as a German/Austrian alliance with the Soviet Union. In the latter case, the ratio of Allied/Axis GDP shifts to 0.64 and the Allied expectation is to lose. This rationalizes both the motivation of Hitler's solicitation of Stalin's blessing for the division of Poland and Hitler's expectation that the Anglo-French alliance would not declare war over the German/Austrian invasion of Poland, in terms of GDP. The willingness of France and the UK to engage Germany/Austria suggests that the former interpretation held sway with Allied decision makers.
During the battle of France, in 1940, Italy joined the war on the side of Germany/Austria. In terms of 1939 GDP, the Allies to Axis ratio now stood at 0.86 because of the addition of Italian GDP to the Axis. In a matter of weeks, France then agreed to an armistice because of Axis success on the battlefield. With the loss of France to the Allies, the Allies to Axis ratio dropped to 0.51 as the UK stood alone against the combined economic power of Germany/Austria and Italy. With the addition of French GDP, the Allies to Axis ratio plummets to 0.38 and an Axis victory seems economically certain. British intransigence, epitomized by Churchill's poignant bluster hid the hopelessness of the Allied cause from the public. Realistically, only the hope of a Soviet or American entry into the war on the Allied side provided any solace.
The fact that a majority of great power GDP remained neutral at the beginning of 1941 gave the Allies hope and threatened the Axis. Hitler altered that with the Axis invasion of the USSR. Adding the 1940 GDP of the USSR to that of the UK shifted the Allies to Axis great power GDP ratio to 1.31, giving the Allies the economic advantage lost with the entry of Italy in 1940. However, with French GDP included in the Axis tally, the ratio was 1.01. Hitler said of the war with the Soviet Union that "the world will hold its breath."
Only two great powers were neutral in the latter half of 1941, the USA and Japan. In the fall, when defeat of the USSR seemed very possible, the Japanese were considering war with the Americans. Japanese decision makers may have been able to reconcile
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